Business data point in Temecula

[Bob]

It might be useful for those of you who are claiming the bottom has arrived to give the rest of us your definition of bottom.

All I know is that I just saw another fantastic TV REO sitting on a golf course listed at $259K. The exact same model down the street sold for $325K earlier in the year…and $705K three years ago. Could it be the bottom has arrived but TG forgot to tell the banks ? LOL

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=temeculaguy]
Hey Temeculans, who’s up for a happy hour? I can’t make the next callahans event, and I hate to feel like I’ll be behind on my drinking scorecard. If there’s interest let’s set something up, maybe a sunday wine tasting, or an early week happy hour. If were gonna go down in flames I want my glass to be full.
[/quote]

Sounds good.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=temeculaguy]
Hey Temeculans, who’s up for a happy hour? I can’t make the next callahans event, and I hate to feel like I’ll be behind on my drinking scorecard. If there’s interest let’s set something up, maybe a sunday wine tasting, or an early week happy hour. If were gonna go down in flames I want my glass to be full.
[/quote]

Sounds good.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=temeculaguy]
Hey Temeculans, who’s up for a happy hour? I can’t make the next callahans event, and I hate to feel like I’ll be behind on my drinking scorecard. If there’s interest let’s set something up, maybe a sunday wine tasting, or an early week happy hour. If were gonna go down in flames I want my glass to be full.
[/quote]

Sounds good.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=temeculaguy]
Hey Temeculans, who’s up for a happy hour? I can’t make the next callahans event, and I hate to feel like I’ll be behind on my drinking scorecard. If there’s interest let’s set something up, maybe a sunday wine tasting, or an early week happy hour. If were gonna go down in flames I want my glass to be full.
[/quote]

Sounds good.

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=temeculaguy]
Hey Temeculans, who’s up for a happy hour? I can’t make the next callahans event, and I hate to feel like I’ll be behind on my drinking scorecard. If there’s interest let’s set something up, maybe a sunday wine tasting, or an early week happy hour. If were gonna go down in flames I want my glass to be full.
[/quote]

Sounds good.

[NotCranky]

Bob,
Did you post previously under bob007 or another name? Just curious.
As far as the bottom goes, It doesn’t mean to me you can’t find a losing property and all properties are holding even in eternity or going up. Is that what you mean? I am looking at it as a reasonable entry point where a person with using common sense puts themselves in a likely position to remain satisfied with the situation. That means something to different people and for different types of deals, but as much as a 20% swing wouldn’t phase me on a owner occupied home,if I hit most parameters close to right and thought it was relatively unlikely for one reason or another.I know many people who have been through this kind of swing and it didn’t phase them. If it does maybe they weren’t using common sense.Maybe they were unlucky.
Of course I would like to believe I make better deals than that and always have but I am not going to die thinking about it if I want to buy a house or help a client who does with their eyes open. I quit selling in 2003 and have been very vocal about how fast and hard the crash was going to be. That’s good enough for me. That’s my bottom.

[NotCranky]

Bob,
Did you post previously under bob007 or another name? Just curious.
As far as the bottom goes, It doesn’t mean to me you can’t find a losing property and all properties are holding even in eternity or going up. Is that what you mean? I am looking at it as a reasonable entry point where a person with using common sense puts themselves in a likely position to remain satisfied with the situation. That means something to different people and for different types of deals, but as much as a 20% swing wouldn’t phase me on a owner occupied home,if I hit most parameters close to right and thought it was relatively unlikely for one reason or another.I know many people who have been through this kind of swing and it didn’t phase them. If it does maybe they weren’t using common sense.Maybe they were unlucky.
Of course I would like to believe I make better deals than that and always have but I am not going to die thinking about it if I want to buy a house or help a client who does with their eyes open. I quit selling in 2003 and have been very vocal about how fast and hard the crash was going to be. That’s good enough for me. That’s my bottom.

[NotCranky]

Bob,
Did you post previously under bob007 or another name? Just curious.
As far as the bottom goes, It doesn’t mean to me you can’t find a losing property and all properties are holding even in eternity or going up. Is that what you mean? I am looking at it as a reasonable entry point where a person with using common sense puts themselves in a likely position to remain satisfied with the situation. That means something to different people and for different types of deals, but as much as a 20% swing wouldn’t phase me on a owner occupied home,if I hit most parameters close to right and thought it was relatively unlikely for one reason or another.I know many people who have been through this kind of swing and it didn’t phase them. If it does maybe they weren’t using common sense.Maybe they were unlucky.
Of course I would like to believe I make better deals than that and always have but I am not going to die thinking about it if I want to buy a house or help a client who does with their eyes open. I quit selling in 2003 and have been very vocal about how fast and hard the crash was going to be. That’s good enough for me. That’s my bottom.

[NotCranky]

Bob,
Did you post previously under bob007 or another name? Just curious.
As far as the bottom goes, It doesn’t mean to me you can’t find a losing property and all properties are holding even in eternity or going up. Is that what you mean? I am looking at it as a reasonable entry point where a person with using common sense puts themselves in a likely position to remain satisfied with the situation. That means something to different people and for different types of deals, but as much as a 20% swing wouldn’t phase me on a owner occupied home,if I hit most parameters close to right and thought it was relatively unlikely for one reason or another.I know many people who have been through this kind of swing and it didn’t phase them. If it does maybe they weren’t using common sense.Maybe they were unlucky.
Of course I would like to believe I make better deals than that and always have but I am not going to die thinking about it if I want to buy a house or help a client who does with their eyes open. I quit selling in 2003 and have been very vocal about how fast and hard the crash was going to be. That’s good enough for me. That’s my bottom.

[NotCranky]

Bob,
Did you post previously under bob007 or another name? Just curious.
As far as the bottom goes, It doesn’t mean to me you can’t find a losing property and all properties are holding even in eternity or going up. Is that what you mean? I am looking at it as a reasonable entry point where a person with using common sense puts themselves in a likely position to remain satisfied with the situation. That means something to different people and for different types of deals, but as much as a 20% swing wouldn’t phase me on a owner occupied home,if I hit most parameters close to right and thought it was relatively unlikely for one reason or another.I know many people who have been through this kind of swing and it didn’t phase them. If it does maybe they weren’t using common sense.Maybe they were unlucky.
Of course I would like to believe I make better deals than that and always have but I am not going to die thinking about it if I want to buy a house or help a client who does with their eyes open. I quit selling in 2003 and have been very vocal about how fast and hard the crash was going to be. That’s good enough for me. That’s my bottom.

[temeculaguy]

Bob, post a link unless you are thinking of buying it. Maybe that 259k bolsters my argument, it can be a low water mark and if things get much worse and you can find it for 175 come summer, then I was wrong. One thing to consider when looking at list prices, it is a strategy of some reo listing agents to list an extremely low price and get the bidding war going. I also don’t like using short sale prices for guaging things. Closed sales price is the best but obviously it is a few months behind for guaging sentiment and raw data includes sales back to the bank. The best way is to track that house and see what it goes for, what it closes at or better yet, wait two days and call the realtor yourself. Tell them you are unrepresented and want to know if you put in a full price offer would it be worth your time. If there are 10 offers on the second day, all over list, then the list price was was merely a launching point, if it’s still sitting there without offers after 48 hours, then that is when you move in with 225k. I don’t know the house so i can’t give you a specific opinion. I’m seeing new listings at about the same as they have been since December, which is why i feel thigs are tapering off.

Here are some examples I see at low water marks.

a 2/2 condoish apartment, rents for about a grand, maybe a little more, 100k, sold new in 2005 for 280k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44758-Adam-Ln-92592/home/6684608

200 hoa, about 150 in taxes (current taxes of 3300 yr are based on a 255 valuation) and your true cost for 100k on a thirty year (assuming no down for dollar cost purposes only) for 100k at 5% is $536. So you can buy this for under $900 a month for principal, interest, taxes and hoa. Insurance is partially covered by the hoa for structure, a contents policy will add $30 a month. Factor in the tax deduction and you are between $600 and $700 net cost, no yardwork, a pool and a gym.

You can buy one for grandma, your kid, the guy working at in n out can buy it and he can walk to work. I toured these when they were new and the news and the economy were great, they didn’t make sense at 280k, I look at them now, flirting with 5 digits, with the news and economy being all bad and it makes sense to me now. Not for appreciation but because of affordability, a hedge against inflation for those on a fixed income.

[temeculaguy]

Bob, post a link unless you are thinking of buying it. Maybe that 259k bolsters my argument, it can be a low water mark and if things get much worse and you can find it for 175 come summer, then I was wrong. One thing to consider when looking at list prices, it is a strategy of some reo listing agents to list an extremely low price and get the bidding war going. I also don’t like using short sale prices for guaging things. Closed sales price is the best but obviously it is a few months behind for guaging sentiment and raw data includes sales back to the bank. The best way is to track that house and see what it goes for, what it closes at or better yet, wait two days and call the realtor yourself. Tell them you are unrepresented and want to know if you put in a full price offer would it be worth your time. If there are 10 offers on the second day, all over list, then the list price was was merely a launching point, if it’s still sitting there without offers after 48 hours, then that is when you move in with 225k. I don’t know the house so i can’t give you a specific opinion. I’m seeing new listings at about the same as they have been since December, which is why i feel thigs are tapering off.

Here are some examples I see at low water marks.

a 2/2 condoish apartment, rents for about a grand, maybe a little more, 100k, sold new in 2005 for 280k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44758-Adam-Ln-92592/home/6684608

200 hoa, about 150 in taxes (current taxes of 3300 yr are based on a 255 valuation) and your true cost for 100k on a thirty year (assuming no down for dollar cost purposes only) for 100k at 5% is $536. So you can buy this for under $900 a month for principal, interest, taxes and hoa. Insurance is partially covered by the hoa for structure, a contents policy will add $30 a month. Factor in the tax deduction and you are between $600 and $700 net cost, no yardwork, a pool and a gym.

You can buy one for grandma, your kid, the guy working at in n out can buy it and he can walk to work. I toured these when they were new and the news and the economy were great, they didn’t make sense at 280k, I look at them now, flirting with 5 digits, with the news and economy being all bad and it makes sense to me now. Not for appreciation but because of affordability, a hedge against inflation for those on a fixed income.

[temeculaguy]

Bob, post a link unless you are thinking of buying it. Maybe that 259k bolsters my argument, it can be a low water mark and if things get much worse and you can find it for 175 come summer, then I was wrong. One thing to consider when looking at list prices, it is a strategy of some reo listing agents to list an extremely low price and get the bidding war going. I also don’t like using short sale prices for guaging things. Closed sales price is the best but obviously it is a few months behind for guaging sentiment and raw data includes sales back to the bank. The best way is to track that house and see what it goes for, what it closes at or better yet, wait two days and call the realtor yourself. Tell them you are unrepresented and want to know if you put in a full price offer would it be worth your time. If there are 10 offers on the second day, all over list, then the list price was was merely a launching point, if it’s still sitting there without offers after 48 hours, then that is when you move in with 225k. I don’t know the house so i can’t give you a specific opinion. I’m seeing new listings at about the same as they have been since December, which is why i feel thigs are tapering off.

Here are some examples I see at low water marks.

a 2/2 condoish apartment, rents for about a grand, maybe a little more, 100k, sold new in 2005 for 280k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44758-Adam-Ln-92592/home/6684608

200 hoa, about 150 in taxes (current taxes of 3300 yr are based on a 255 valuation) and your true cost for 100k on a thirty year (assuming no down for dollar cost purposes only) for 100k at 5% is $536. So you can buy this for under $900 a month for principal, interest, taxes and hoa. Insurance is partially covered by the hoa for structure, a contents policy will add $30 a month. Factor in the tax deduction and you are between $600 and $700 net cost, no yardwork, a pool and a gym.

You can buy one for grandma, your kid, the guy working at in n out can buy it and he can walk to work. I toured these when they were new and the news and the economy were great, they didn’t make sense at 280k, I look at them now, flirting with 5 digits, with the news and economy being all bad and it makes sense to me now. Not for appreciation but because of affordability, a hedge against inflation for those on a fixed income.

[temeculaguy]

Bob, post a link unless you are thinking of buying it. Maybe that 259k bolsters my argument, it can be a low water mark and if things get much worse and you can find it for 175 come summer, then I was wrong. One thing to consider when looking at list prices, it is a strategy of some reo listing agents to list an extremely low price and get the bidding war going. I also don’t like using short sale prices for guaging things. Closed sales price is the best but obviously it is a few months behind for guaging sentiment and raw data includes sales back to the bank. The best way is to track that house and see what it goes for, what it closes at or better yet, wait two days and call the realtor yourself. Tell them you are unrepresented and want to know if you put in a full price offer would it be worth your time. If there are 10 offers on the second day, all over list, then the list price was was merely a launching point, if it’s still sitting there without offers after 48 hours, then that is when you move in with 225k. I don’t know the house so i can’t give you a specific opinion. I’m seeing new listings at about the same as they have been since December, which is why i feel thigs are tapering off.

Here are some examples I see at low water marks.

a 2/2 condoish apartment, rents for about a grand, maybe a little more, 100k, sold new in 2005 for 280k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44758-Adam-Ln-92592/home/6684608

200 hoa, about 150 in taxes (current taxes of 3300 yr are based on a 255 valuation) and your true cost for 100k on a thirty year (assuming no down for dollar cost purposes only) for 100k at 5% is $536. So you can buy this for under $900 a month for principal, interest, taxes and hoa. Insurance is partially covered by the hoa for structure, a contents policy will add $30 a month. Factor in the tax deduction and you are between $600 and $700 net cost, no yardwork, a pool and a gym.

You can buy one for grandma, your kid, the guy working at in n out can buy it and he can walk to work. I toured these when they were new and the news and the economy were great, they didn’t make sense at 280k, I look at them now, flirting with 5 digits, with the news and economy being all bad and it makes sense to me now. Not for appreciation but because of affordability, a hedge against inflation for those on a fixed income.

[Author]

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