Bubble Economics 101: Why you can’t make money even if you know a crash is coming.

[EconProf]

Mark Twain had the best advice about making money in stocks. Paraphrased, he said: Buy a stock when it is low. Wait until it goes up, and then sell it. If it doesn’t go up, don’t buy it.

[peterb]

I went to buy a toaster today and they gave me a free bank.

A mine is a hole inthe ground with a liar standing next to it.- Mark Twain. Love that one!

My advice to anyone who’s “in the market” is that you have to watch it everyday. Otherwise, get into something far less volitile. When I was in RE from 1998 to 2006, I watched it like a hawk and went to all kinds of seminars. But it’s a nice market in that it moves pretty slowly. Easier to keep track of it, spot trends, etc…

I have many friends that have the same contention that it’s difficult to track since they have lives and work, etc…to keep them busy. My answer to them is,”What’s your investments and future worth to you?” Is it worth 30 minutes a day? Just sayin.

[peterb]

I went to buy a toaster today and they gave me a free bank.

A mine is a hole inthe ground with a liar standing next to it.- Mark Twain. Love that one!

My advice to anyone who’s “in the market” is that you have to watch it everyday. Otherwise, get into something far less volitile. When I was in RE from 1998 to 2006, I watched it like a hawk and went to all kinds of seminars. But it’s a nice market in that it moves pretty slowly. Easier to keep track of it, spot trends, etc…

I have many friends that have the same contention that it’s difficult to track since they have lives and work, etc…to keep them busy. My answer to them is,”What’s your investments and future worth to you?” Is it worth 30 minutes a day? Just sayin.

[peterb]

I went to buy a toaster today and they gave me a free bank.

A mine is a hole inthe ground with a liar standing next to it.- Mark Twain. Love that one!

My advice to anyone who’s “in the market” is that you have to watch it everyday. Otherwise, get into something far less volitile. When I was in RE from 1998 to 2006, I watched it like a hawk and went to all kinds of seminars. But it’s a nice market in that it moves pretty slowly. Easier to keep track of it, spot trends, etc…

I have many friends that have the same contention that it’s difficult to track since they have lives and work, etc…to keep them busy. My answer to them is,”What’s your investments and future worth to you?” Is it worth 30 minutes a day? Just sayin.

[peterb]

I went to buy a toaster today and they gave me a free bank.

A mine is a hole inthe ground with a liar standing next to it.- Mark Twain. Love that one!

My advice to anyone who’s “in the market” is that you have to watch it everyday. Otherwise, get into something far less volitile. When I was in RE from 1998 to 2006, I watched it like a hawk and went to all kinds of seminars. But it’s a nice market in that it moves pretty slowly. Easier to keep track of it, spot trends, etc…

I have many friends that have the same contention that it’s difficult to track since they have lives and work, etc…to keep them busy. My answer to them is,”What’s your investments and future worth to you?” Is it worth 30 minutes a day? Just sayin.

[peterb]

I went to buy a toaster today and they gave me a free bank.

A mine is a hole inthe ground with a liar standing next to it.- Mark Twain. Love that one!

My advice to anyone who’s “in the market” is that you have to watch it everyday. Otherwise, get into something far less volitile. When I was in RE from 1998 to 2006, I watched it like a hawk and went to all kinds of seminars. But it’s a nice market in that it moves pretty slowly. Easier to keep track of it, spot trends, etc…

I have many friends that have the same contention that it’s difficult to track since they have lives and work, etc…to keep them busy. My answer to them is,”What’s your investments and future worth to you?” Is it worth 30 minutes a day? Just sayin.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

peterb: Another key distinction that needs to be made here is the difference between traders and investors. When someone like Jim Cramer makes pronouncements, he is doing so as a trader, not an investor.

Traders look for momentum and investors look for value. Value investing is extremely difficult right now because of all the off-book and off Balance Sheet transactions that are muddying the waters in terms of asset value and company strength (or weakness).

AIG is a prime example. The insurance side of the business is doing quite well, but their various “bets” in the derivatives markets nearly sank the company. Old school Graham’s Theorem guys like me don’t have a good set of metrics to work with and everybody is suspect until proven innocent when it comes to what might be lurking out of sight and off the Balance Sheet.

Point is this: It really is anybody’s guess as to what might happen in the market, and every day brings some new revelation or surprise (England nationalizing a slew of banks, Iceland pulling billions in bank debt onto the country’s Balance Sheet, etc).

While I appreciate the wisdom of spending half an hour a day watching the market, the reality is that there is no way of knowing what the hell is going to happen next. Historical precedent can be illuminating, but can only take you so far.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

peterb: Another key distinction that needs to be made here is the difference between traders and investors. When someone like Jim Cramer makes pronouncements, he is doing so as a trader, not an investor.

Traders look for momentum and investors look for value. Value investing is extremely difficult right now because of all the off-book and off Balance Sheet transactions that are muddying the waters in terms of asset value and company strength (or weakness).

AIG is a prime example. The insurance side of the business is doing quite well, but their various “bets” in the derivatives markets nearly sank the company. Old school Graham’s Theorem guys like me don’t have a good set of metrics to work with and everybody is suspect until proven innocent when it comes to what might be lurking out of sight and off the Balance Sheet.

Point is this: It really is anybody’s guess as to what might happen in the market, and every day brings some new revelation or surprise (England nationalizing a slew of banks, Iceland pulling billions in bank debt onto the country’s Balance Sheet, etc).

While I appreciate the wisdom of spending half an hour a day watching the market, the reality is that there is no way of knowing what the hell is going to happen next. Historical precedent can be illuminating, but can only take you so far.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

peterb: Another key distinction that needs to be made here is the difference between traders and investors. When someone like Jim Cramer makes pronouncements, he is doing so as a trader, not an investor.

Traders look for momentum and investors look for value. Value investing is extremely difficult right now because of all the off-book and off Balance Sheet transactions that are muddying the waters in terms of asset value and company strength (or weakness).

AIG is a prime example. The insurance side of the business is doing quite well, but their various “bets” in the derivatives markets nearly sank the company. Old school Graham’s Theorem guys like me don’t have a good set of metrics to work with and everybody is suspect until proven innocent when it comes to what might be lurking out of sight and off the Balance Sheet.

Point is this: It really is anybody’s guess as to what might happen in the market, and every day brings some new revelation or surprise (England nationalizing a slew of banks, Iceland pulling billions in bank debt onto the country’s Balance Sheet, etc).

While I appreciate the wisdom of spending half an hour a day watching the market, the reality is that there is no way of knowing what the hell is going to happen next. Historical precedent can be illuminating, but can only take you so far.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

peterb: Another key distinction that needs to be made here is the difference between traders and investors. When someone like Jim Cramer makes pronouncements, he is doing so as a trader, not an investor.

Traders look for momentum and investors look for value. Value investing is extremely difficult right now because of all the off-book and off Balance Sheet transactions that are muddying the waters in terms of asset value and company strength (or weakness).

AIG is a prime example. The insurance side of the business is doing quite well, but their various “bets” in the derivatives markets nearly sank the company. Old school Graham’s Theorem guys like me don’t have a good set of metrics to work with and everybody is suspect until proven innocent when it comes to what might be lurking out of sight and off the Balance Sheet.

Point is this: It really is anybody’s guess as to what might happen in the market, and every day brings some new revelation or surprise (England nationalizing a slew of banks, Iceland pulling billions in bank debt onto the country’s Balance Sheet, etc).

While I appreciate the wisdom of spending half an hour a day watching the market, the reality is that there is no way of knowing what the hell is going to happen next. Historical precedent can be illuminating, but can only take you so far.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

peterb: Another key distinction that needs to be made here is the difference between traders and investors. When someone like Jim Cramer makes pronouncements, he is doing so as a trader, not an investor.

Traders look for momentum and investors look for value. Value investing is extremely difficult right now because of all the off-book and off Balance Sheet transactions that are muddying the waters in terms of asset value and company strength (or weakness).

AIG is a prime example. The insurance side of the business is doing quite well, but their various “bets” in the derivatives markets nearly sank the company. Old school Graham’s Theorem guys like me don’t have a good set of metrics to work with and everybody is suspect until proven innocent when it comes to what might be lurking out of sight and off the Balance Sheet.

Point is this: It really is anybody’s guess as to what might happen in the market, and every day brings some new revelation or surprise (England nationalizing a slew of banks, Iceland pulling billions in bank debt onto the country’s Balance Sheet, etc).

While I appreciate the wisdom of spending half an hour a day watching the market, the reality is that there is no way of knowing what the hell is going to happen next. Historical precedent can be illuminating, but can only take you so far.

[peterb]

When in doubt, go to cash. I just play in the stock market as it’s got a lot of insider activity and it’s hard to get clarity on most companies.
Buy gold as a store of value. An ounce still buys about what it always bought. You cant say that about any currency.

But if you follow just a hand full of non-mainstream analysts, none of what we’re experiencing in the stock or RE market would be catching you off gaurd. That’s all I’ve done.

For RE, there’s Bruce Norris and Mr. Mortgage. Those two are all you need in CA.

For other asset classes it’s Bob Hoye and Marc Faber.

DONT WATCH MSM!!!

People need to stay aware. The world is a highly dynamic place and getting more dynamic every day.

I’ve done my share of losing as well. But that’s been a great teacher. But if people really feel that it’s kinda rigged against them. Then dont play. Buy gold and do what you’re good at. This has worked for a lot of successful people. It’s mostly what I’ve done.

[peterb]

When in doubt, go to cash. I just play in the stock market as it’s got a lot of insider activity and it’s hard to get clarity on most companies.
Buy gold as a store of value. An ounce still buys about what it always bought. You cant say that about any currency.

But if you follow just a hand full of non-mainstream analysts, none of what we’re experiencing in the stock or RE market would be catching you off gaurd. That’s all I’ve done.

For RE, there’s Bruce Norris and Mr. Mortgage. Those two are all you need in CA.

For other asset classes it’s Bob Hoye and Marc Faber.

DONT WATCH MSM!!!

People need to stay aware. The world is a highly dynamic place and getting more dynamic every day.

I’ve done my share of losing as well. But that’s been a great teacher. But if people really feel that it’s kinda rigged against them. Then dont play. Buy gold and do what you’re good at. This has worked for a lot of successful people. It’s mostly what I’ve done.

[peterb]

When in doubt, go to cash. I just play in the stock market as it’s got a lot of insider activity and it’s hard to get clarity on most companies.
Buy gold as a store of value. An ounce still buys about what it always bought. You cant say that about any currency.

But if you follow just a hand full of non-mainstream analysts, none of what we’re experiencing in the stock or RE market would be catching you off gaurd. That’s all I’ve done.

For RE, there’s Bruce Norris and Mr. Mortgage. Those two are all you need in CA.

For other asset classes it’s Bob Hoye and Marc Faber.

DONT WATCH MSM!!!

People need to stay aware. The world is a highly dynamic place and getting more dynamic every day.

I’ve done my share of losing as well. But that’s been a great teacher. But if people really feel that it’s kinda rigged against them. Then dont play. Buy gold and do what you’re good at. This has worked for a lot of successful people. It’s mostly what I’ve done.

[peterb]

When in doubt, go to cash. I just play in the stock market as it’s got a lot of insider activity and it’s hard to get clarity on most companies.
Buy gold as a store of value. An ounce still buys about what it always bought. You cant say that about any currency.

But if you follow just a hand full of non-mainstream analysts, none of what we’re experiencing in the stock or RE market would be catching you off gaurd. That’s all I’ve done.

For RE, there’s Bruce Norris and Mr. Mortgage. Those two are all you need in CA.

For other asset classes it’s Bob Hoye and Marc Faber.

DONT WATCH MSM!!!

People need to stay aware. The world is a highly dynamic place and getting more dynamic every day.

I’ve done my share of losing as well. But that’s been a great teacher. But if people really feel that it’s kinda rigged against them. Then dont play. Buy gold and do what you’re good at. This has worked for a lot of successful people. It’s mostly what I’ve done.

[Author]

Posts