Bubble bust and changing landscape

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Interesting thread.

Despite some meandering, the occasional red-herring, and the need for every thread to include the words straw man and ad hominem , the opposing points seem to have evolved to 2 primary issues :

1. Monthly costs of carrying the mortgage in esmith’s example is equivalent to rent at $2700 per month, plus a few hundred bucks. Therefore buying in this particular price/range and associated tax bracket is really not that much more expensive on a monthly cash flow basis.

2. The risks to buying in this particular example, however include the dead money put towards downpayment (opportunity cost), risk of job loss, risk of further erosion of principle, risk of large expenses related to property maintenance/repair.

Just an opinion, but in the current environment, it would seem that for most the risks would outweigh the fact that renting and owning are roughly equivalent, except in cases where one has significant other assets outside the down payment. (e.g. a few hundred K in retirement savings already or 50-100K cash).

[LAAFTERHOURS]

[quote=esmith]

Scenario 2. Renting a house in 4S Ranch. The cheapest detached I see is $2700.

E [/quote]
If anyone wants fair market analysis on rentals in 4S, 2700 for Hollingsworth is overpriced. 2200-2400 is more reasonable considering your front door is on a driveway.

La Vina prices are 2500 for 4 bed 2000 sq ft.

Bridgeport 3 bed townhomes are 1800-2000.

The above numbers are acquaintances pricing from rentals locked in over the course of the past 8 months.

Del Sur – http://sandiego.craigslist.org/csd/apa/861633510.html $2900

I think current rents on craigslist are overpriced.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

[quote=esmith]

Scenario 2. Renting a house in 4S Ranch. The cheapest detached I see is $2700.

E [/quote]
If anyone wants fair market analysis on rentals in 4S, 2700 for Hollingsworth is overpriced. 2200-2400 is more reasonable considering your front door is on a driveway.

La Vina prices are 2500 for 4 bed 2000 sq ft.

Bridgeport 3 bed townhomes are 1800-2000.

The above numbers are acquaintances pricing from rentals locked in over the course of the past 8 months.

Del Sur – http://sandiego.craigslist.org/csd/apa/861633510.html $2900

I think current rents on craigslist are overpriced.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

[quote=esmith]

Scenario 2. Renting a house in 4S Ranch. The cheapest detached I see is $2700.

E [/quote]
If anyone wants fair market analysis on rentals in 4S, 2700 for Hollingsworth is overpriced. 2200-2400 is more reasonable considering your front door is on a driveway.

La Vina prices are 2500 for 4 bed 2000 sq ft.

Bridgeport 3 bed townhomes are 1800-2000.

The above numbers are acquaintances pricing from rentals locked in over the course of the past 8 months.

Del Sur – http://sandiego.craigslist.org/csd/apa/861633510.html $2900

I think current rents on craigslist are overpriced.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

[quote=esmith]

Scenario 2. Renting a house in 4S Ranch. The cheapest detached I see is $2700.

E [/quote]
If anyone wants fair market analysis on rentals in 4S, 2700 for Hollingsworth is overpriced. 2200-2400 is more reasonable considering your front door is on a driveway.

La Vina prices are 2500 for 4 bed 2000 sq ft.

Bridgeport 3 bed townhomes are 1800-2000.

The above numbers are acquaintances pricing from rentals locked in over the course of the past 8 months.

Del Sur – http://sandiego.craigslist.org/csd/apa/861633510.html $2900

I think current rents on craigslist are overpriced.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

[quote=esmith]

Scenario 2. Renting a house in 4S Ranch. The cheapest detached I see is $2700.

E [/quote]
If anyone wants fair market analysis on rentals in 4S, 2700 for Hollingsworth is overpriced. 2200-2400 is more reasonable considering your front door is on a driveway.

La Vina prices are 2500 for 4 bed 2000 sq ft.

Bridgeport 3 bed townhomes are 1800-2000.

The above numbers are acquaintances pricing from rentals locked in over the course of the past 8 months.

Del Sur – http://sandiego.craigslist.org/csd/apa/861633510.html $2900

I think current rents on craigslist are overpriced.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

One other notion on Home maintenance in 4S Ranch. Since all of these home are less than 9 years old, most of them will not require a lot of maintenance (Ie new roof, appliances,) Some of them I assume carry a warranty of some kind or you can add one to lessen the blows.

From eSmith’s opening paragraph, some of the older areas (even CMR) where homes are 20+ years old, the maintenance costs will be higher.

I hadnt seen that discussed but thought its something to consider.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

One other notion on Home maintenance in 4S Ranch. Since all of these home are less than 9 years old, most of them will not require a lot of maintenance (Ie new roof, appliances,) Some of them I assume carry a warranty of some kind or you can add one to lessen the blows.

From eSmith’s opening paragraph, some of the older areas (even CMR) where homes are 20+ years old, the maintenance costs will be higher.

I hadnt seen that discussed but thought its something to consider.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

One other notion on Home maintenance in 4S Ranch. Since all of these home are less than 9 years old, most of them will not require a lot of maintenance (Ie new roof, appliances,) Some of them I assume carry a warranty of some kind or you can add one to lessen the blows.

From eSmith’s opening paragraph, some of the older areas (even CMR) where homes are 20+ years old, the maintenance costs will be higher.

I hadnt seen that discussed but thought its something to consider.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

One other notion on Home maintenance in 4S Ranch. Since all of these home are less than 9 years old, most of them will not require a lot of maintenance (Ie new roof, appliances,) Some of them I assume carry a warranty of some kind or you can add one to lessen the blows.

From eSmith’s opening paragraph, some of the older areas (even CMR) where homes are 20+ years old, the maintenance costs will be higher.

I hadnt seen that discussed but thought its something to consider.

[LAAFTERHOURS]

One other notion on Home maintenance in 4S Ranch. Since all of these home are less than 9 years old, most of them will not require a lot of maintenance (Ie new roof, appliances,) Some of them I assume carry a warranty of some kind or you can add one to lessen the blows.

From eSmith’s opening paragraph, some of the older areas (even CMR) where homes are 20+ years old, the maintenance costs will be higher.

I hadnt seen that discussed but thought its something to consider.

[BGinRB]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan] So, the unit in question ‘cash flows’ at about 260 x rent with 20% down. Does that make sense to you?

Why use a rule of thumb (price as a multiple of rent) when the numbers are all laid out already.
[/quote]

The numbers laid out are not inclusive. We would need to consider additional inputs if we want to come up with some actionable analysis.

That is why I pulled a “rule of thumb”, as a product of a reality-tested analysis.

[BGinRB]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan] So, the unit in question ‘cash flows’ at about 260 x rent with 20% down. Does that make sense to you?

Why use a rule of thumb (price as a multiple of rent) when the numbers are all laid out already.
[/quote]

The numbers laid out are not inclusive. We would need to consider additional inputs if we want to come up with some actionable analysis.

That is why I pulled a “rule of thumb”, as a product of a reality-tested analysis.

[BGinRB]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan] So, the unit in question ‘cash flows’ at about 260 x rent with 20% down. Does that make sense to you?

Why use a rule of thumb (price as a multiple of rent) when the numbers are all laid out already.
[/quote]

The numbers laid out are not inclusive. We would need to consider additional inputs if we want to come up with some actionable analysis.

That is why I pulled a “rule of thumb”, as a product of a reality-tested analysis.

[BGinRB]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan] So, the unit in question ‘cash flows’ at about 260 x rent with 20% down. Does that make sense to you?

Why use a rule of thumb (price as a multiple of rent) when the numbers are all laid out already.
[/quote]

The numbers laid out are not inclusive. We would need to consider additional inputs if we want to come up with some actionable analysis.

That is why I pulled a “rule of thumb”, as a product of a reality-tested analysis.

[Author]

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