Beazer homes

[Allan from Fallbrook]

bsrsharma: Accounting for Chrysler or Lucent is going to be different than for Beazer, largely due to the fact that in both cases, they have significant physical assets (auto production plants for Chrysler, telephone networks for Lucent). Chrysler’s net negative is mainly composed of unfunded pension liabilities and legacy costs.

I think this upcoming year will be particularly telling for the big homebuilders, especially after seeing their stocks savaged this year. Homebuilders don’t enjoy very good market capitalizations and those capitalizations are in large part based on a pretty bare bones Graham’s valuation (land + houses + Cash + A/R). Beazer’s rate of burn would be a major concern, especially if they continue to have problems moving houses.

[temeculaguy]

Breeze, i didn’t short any of the builders because I am an idiot. I thought about it but I really didn’t think it would go to hell this fast, subscribing to the “things unwind slowly” theory up until a few weeks ago. I completely divested myself from the market a while back except for 401 and 457 stuff, thinking stock markets tank fast, housing markets don’t, further evidence that I should not be allowed access to sharp objects. A bunch of others have been playing against lenders like countrywide and winning big (JWM, capeman and a few others, it was in another post called “betting against the tan man” because the ceo of countrywide, angelo mozilo, is freakishly tan) so i bet they played against the builders and won there too. At this point I worry that it’s too late because some have dropped 75% so there’s not much left to drop. I am probably wrong on this too and next week I will downgrade myself from the standard sized crayons to the really fat crayons that come 8 to a box. Seriously, ignore any and all stock advice from me, I am the epitome of Albert Brooks in Defending Your Life, I came within inches of buying Yahoo in the beginning wussed out at the last second, if I hadn’t followed my gut on that I’d be so rich I’d have a full time employee just to type my blog posts for me while I was fed grapes. Had another one I bought at 4, sold at eight and watched it go to 90, oh yeah and another time a buddy tried to talk me into qualcomm ten years ago but I put in a pool instead, he paid cash for a big house in old scripps on that one. The list goes on and on, it’s a wonder I am not on the corner yelling at passing cars.

[temeculaguy]

Breeze, i didn’t short any of the builders because I am an idiot. I thought about it but I really didn’t think it would go to hell this fast, subscribing to the “things unwind slowly” theory up until a few weeks ago. I completely divested myself from the market a while back except for 401 and 457 stuff, thinking stock markets tank fast, housing markets don’t, further evidence that I should not be allowed access to sharp objects. A bunch of others have been playing against lenders like countrywide and winning big (JWM, capeman and a few others, it was in another post called “betting against the tan man” because the ceo of countrywide, angelo mozilo, is freakishly tan) so i bet they played against the builders and won there too. At this point I worry that it’s too late because some have dropped 75% so there’s not much left to drop. I am probably wrong on this too and next week I will downgrade myself from the standard sized crayons to the really fat crayons that come 8 to a box. Seriously, ignore any and all stock advice from me, I am the epitome of Albert Brooks in Defending Your Life, I came within inches of buying Yahoo in the beginning wussed out at the last second, if I hadn’t followed my gut on that I’d be so rich I’d have a full time employee just to type my blog posts for me while I was fed grapes. Had another one I bought at 4, sold at eight and watched it go to 90, oh yeah and another time a buddy tried to talk me into qualcomm ten years ago but I put in a pool instead, he paid cash for a big house in old scripps on that one. The list goes on and on, it’s a wonder I am not on the corner yelling at passing cars.

[temeculaguy]

Breeze, i didn’t short any of the builders because I am an idiot. I thought about it but I really didn’t think it would go to hell this fast, subscribing to the “things unwind slowly” theory up until a few weeks ago. I completely divested myself from the market a while back except for 401 and 457 stuff, thinking stock markets tank fast, housing markets don’t, further evidence that I should not be allowed access to sharp objects. A bunch of others have been playing against lenders like countrywide and winning big (JWM, capeman and a few others, it was in another post called “betting against the tan man” because the ceo of countrywide, angelo mozilo, is freakishly tan) so i bet they played against the builders and won there too. At this point I worry that it’s too late because some have dropped 75% so there’s not much left to drop. I am probably wrong on this too and next week I will downgrade myself from the standard sized crayons to the really fat crayons that come 8 to a box. Seriously, ignore any and all stock advice from me, I am the epitome of Albert Brooks in Defending Your Life, I came within inches of buying Yahoo in the beginning wussed out at the last second, if I hadn’t followed my gut on that I’d be so rich I’d have a full time employee just to type my blog posts for me while I was fed grapes. Had another one I bought at 4, sold at eight and watched it go to 90, oh yeah and another time a buddy tried to talk me into qualcomm ten years ago but I put in a pool instead, he paid cash for a big house in old scripps on that one. The list goes on and on, it’s a wonder I am not on the corner yelling at passing cars.

[bsrsharma]

Allan,

If you assume Chrysler will never again make consistent profits, does it still have value as a corporation based on physical assets (less unfunded pension liabilities and legacy costs)? A casual observation of their product mix strength reveals Chrysler’s profit making days are strictly in rear view mirror in the post $3 gas regime.

[bsrsharma]

Allan,

If you assume Chrysler will never again make consistent profits, does it still have value as a corporation based on physical assets (less unfunded pension liabilities and legacy costs)? A casual observation of their product mix strength reveals Chrysler’s profit making days are strictly in rear view mirror in the post $3 gas regime.

[bsrsharma]

Allan,

If you assume Chrysler will never again make consistent profits, does it still have value as a corporation based on physical assets (less unfunded pension liabilities and legacy costs)? A casual observation of their product mix strength reveals Chrysler’s profit making days are strictly in rear view mirror in the post $3 gas regime.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

bsrsharma: Just curious about something. Why do you presume that Chrysler will never again make consistent profits? If I were to guess at this, I would cite a couple of factors: Too much dependence on big, gas guzzling SUVs (the Durango and the Aspen come to mind) and trucks, and a lack of investment in hybrid and fuel cell technology.

However, they’ve been written off before and have survived, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

The buyout deal was a hoot, though, wasn’t it?

[Allan from Fallbrook]

bsrsharma: Just curious about something. Why do you presume that Chrysler will never again make consistent profits? If I were to guess at this, I would cite a couple of factors: Too much dependence on big, gas guzzling SUVs (the Durango and the Aspen come to mind) and trucks, and a lack of investment in hybrid and fuel cell technology.

However, they’ve been written off before and have survived, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

The buyout deal was a hoot, though, wasn’t it?

[Allan from Fallbrook]

bsrsharma: Just curious about something. Why do you presume that Chrysler will never again make consistent profits? If I were to guess at this, I would cite a couple of factors: Too much dependence on big, gas guzzling SUVs (the Durango and the Aspen come to mind) and trucks, and a lack of investment in hybrid and fuel cell technology.

However, they’ve been written off before and have survived, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

The buyout deal was a hoot, though, wasn’t it?

[Allan from Fallbrook]

TG: That has to be one of the funniest posts I have seen in a while.

BTW, I love “Defending Your Life”. Pretty much anything with Albert Brooks is funny. Talk about a mensch.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

TG: That has to be one of the funniest posts I have seen in a while.

BTW, I love “Defending Your Life”. Pretty much anything with Albert Brooks is funny. Talk about a mensch.

[Allan from Fallbrook]

TG: That has to be one of the funniest posts I have seen in a while.

BTW, I love “Defending Your Life”. Pretty much anything with Albert Brooks is funny. Talk about a mensch.

[PerryChase]

How about another bailout for Chrysler?

I think that big businesses are of the universal healthcare bandwagon and will be pushing for that. It’s a good way to shift responsiblity for employee and retiree healthcare onto taxpayers.

[PerryChase]

How about another bailout for Chrysler?

I think that big businesses are of the universal healthcare bandwagon and will be pushing for that. It’s a good way to shift responsiblity for employee and retiree healthcare onto taxpayers.

[Author]

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