Bay Park Future?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I agree with 4plex, except maybe on the timing.
Bay Park is one of few communities that is convenient to central San Diego, with Bay/Ocean Views that is somewhat affordable. I am biased, since I lived there for several years before selling and still hold an old rental property there (my future vacation/retirement home). The Bay/ocean views can be among the best in San Diego for the price. As with most areas within SD Unified, the downside is the schools, particularly the Middle/High schools. Some Elementary Schools (e.g. Bay Park Elementary) were pretty good last time I checked (4+ years ago)

Of course, if you are drawn to new development/suburbia style living this area is not for you. The plus to that is lack of HOA or Mello Roos (I’ve never paid either of these)

During the recent cycle there was a lot of construction activity. There are very few 2/1, 1000 sf originals left, but a decent number of 3 BR original floor plans are left for the next cycle.

Like most neighborhoods, as the altitude increases so do the prices, generally.

I would expect the appreciation leg to start before 2017. I think that by that time construction/remodeling activity would be high, but that is too far out for me to predict.

[sdduuuude]

What I don’t like about bay park is the fact that very few houses have a useable back yard.

I love the area and the views and the location, but the houses on the hill with a view all have decks, not yards, in the back with no room for a front yard either.

If you get down into the flatter part, you get a yard, but no view, and the neighborhood starts to degrade a bit as well. The ‘hood by Bay Park elementary is pretty good. That may offer the best in terms of nice neighborhood and a useable lot.

Some of the canyon properties there (I’m thinking by February street, if I recall) are really nice, though likely pricey. We have toured some of these homes as part of the Clairemont Garden Tour. On had a full acre and a view. It was awesome.

4plexowner, as usual, gives an interesting perspective about the 2017 peak which sounds reasonable to me.

I think I would prefer UC to Bay Park, but I’m not hooked on an ocean view. I think prices may be comparable between the two, with the trade-off being views versus space.

[sdduuuude]

What I don’t like about bay park is the fact that very few houses have a useable back yard.

I love the area and the views and the location, but the houses on the hill with a view all have decks, not yards, in the back with no room for a front yard either.

If you get down into the flatter part, you get a yard, but no view, and the neighborhood starts to degrade a bit as well. The ‘hood by Bay Park elementary is pretty good. That may offer the best in terms of nice neighborhood and a useable lot.

Some of the canyon properties there (I’m thinking by February street, if I recall) are really nice, though likely pricey. We have toured some of these homes as part of the Clairemont Garden Tour. On had a full acre and a view. It was awesome.

4plexowner, as usual, gives an interesting perspective about the 2017 peak which sounds reasonable to me.

I think I would prefer UC to Bay Park, but I’m not hooked on an ocean view. I think prices may be comparable between the two, with the trade-off being views versus space.

[sdduuuude]

What I don’t like about bay park is the fact that very few houses have a useable back yard.

I love the area and the views and the location, but the houses on the hill with a view all have decks, not yards, in the back with no room for a front yard either.

If you get down into the flatter part, you get a yard, but no view, and the neighborhood starts to degrade a bit as well. The ‘hood by Bay Park elementary is pretty good. That may offer the best in terms of nice neighborhood and a useable lot.

Some of the canyon properties there (I’m thinking by February street, if I recall) are really nice, though likely pricey. We have toured some of these homes as part of the Clairemont Garden Tour. On had a full acre and a view. It was awesome.

4plexowner, as usual, gives an interesting perspective about the 2017 peak which sounds reasonable to me.

I think I would prefer UC to Bay Park, but I’m not hooked on an ocean view. I think prices may be comparable between the two, with the trade-off being views versus space.

[sdduuuude]

What I don’t like about bay park is the fact that very few houses have a useable back yard.

I love the area and the views and the location, but the houses on the hill with a view all have decks, not yards, in the back with no room for a front yard either.

If you get down into the flatter part, you get a yard, but no view, and the neighborhood starts to degrade a bit as well. The ‘hood by Bay Park elementary is pretty good. That may offer the best in terms of nice neighborhood and a useable lot.

Some of the canyon properties there (I’m thinking by February street, if I recall) are really nice, though likely pricey. We have toured some of these homes as part of the Clairemont Garden Tour. On had a full acre and a view. It was awesome.

4plexowner, as usual, gives an interesting perspective about the 2017 peak which sounds reasonable to me.

I think I would prefer UC to Bay Park, but I’m not hooked on an ocean view. I think prices may be comparable between the two, with the trade-off being views versus space.

[sdduuuude]

What I don’t like about bay park is the fact that very few houses have a useable back yard.

I love the area and the views and the location, but the houses on the hill with a view all have decks, not yards, in the back with no room for a front yard either.

If you get down into the flatter part, you get a yard, but no view, and the neighborhood starts to degrade a bit as well. The ‘hood by Bay Park elementary is pretty good. That may offer the best in terms of nice neighborhood and a useable lot.

Some of the canyon properties there (I’m thinking by February street, if I recall) are really nice, though likely pricey. We have toured some of these homes as part of the Clairemont Garden Tour. On had a full acre and a view. It was awesome.

4plexowner, as usual, gives an interesting perspective about the 2017 peak which sounds reasonable to me.

I think I would prefer UC to Bay Park, but I’m not hooked on an ocean view. I think prices may be comparable between the two, with the trade-off being views versus space.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdduuuude]
4plexowner, as usual, gives an interesting perspective about the 2017 peak which sounds reasonable to me.
[/quote]

Actually he suggested that 2017 would be the start of the next appreciation leg, not the peak.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdduuuude]
4plexowner, as usual, gives an interesting perspective about the 2017 peak which sounds reasonable to me.
[/quote]

Actually he suggested that 2017 would be the start of the next appreciation leg, not the peak.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdduuuude]
4plexowner, as usual, gives an interesting perspective about the 2017 peak which sounds reasonable to me.
[/quote]

Actually he suggested that 2017 would be the start of the next appreciation leg, not the peak.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdduuuude]
4plexowner, as usual, gives an interesting perspective about the 2017 peak which sounds reasonable to me.
[/quote]

Actually he suggested that 2017 would be the start of the next appreciation leg, not the peak.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=sdduuuude]
4plexowner, as usual, gives an interesting perspective about the 2017 peak which sounds reasonable to me.
[/quote]

Actually he suggested that 2017 would be the start of the next appreciation leg, not the peak.

[4plexowner]

here’s the math

peak in 2006/7

typical time from peak to trough in SoCal is 6 or 7 years

2006/7 plus 6 or 7 takes us to 2012 to 2014 for the next trough

then we scrape along the bottom for 2 or 3 years so we are looking at 2014 to 2017 when the next appreciation cycle starts (not peaks)

~

it isn’t relevant to this thread but I don’t understand how people can think we have reached a bottom in 2009 only 2 or 3 years after the peak

and that’s without going into the magnitude of the cycle that peaked in 2006/7 – it might be reasonable to expect a larger (longer?) than normal down cycle after the bursting of the largest real estate bubble the planet has ever seen

[4plexowner]

here’s the math

peak in 2006/7

typical time from peak to trough in SoCal is 6 or 7 years

2006/7 plus 6 or 7 takes us to 2012 to 2014 for the next trough

then we scrape along the bottom for 2 or 3 years so we are looking at 2014 to 2017 when the next appreciation cycle starts (not peaks)

~

it isn’t relevant to this thread but I don’t understand how people can think we have reached a bottom in 2009 only 2 or 3 years after the peak

and that’s without going into the magnitude of the cycle that peaked in 2006/7 – it might be reasonable to expect a larger (longer?) than normal down cycle after the bursting of the largest real estate bubble the planet has ever seen

[4plexowner]

here’s the math

peak in 2006/7

typical time from peak to trough in SoCal is 6 or 7 years

2006/7 plus 6 or 7 takes us to 2012 to 2014 for the next trough

then we scrape along the bottom for 2 or 3 years so we are looking at 2014 to 2017 when the next appreciation cycle starts (not peaks)

~

it isn’t relevant to this thread but I don’t understand how people can think we have reached a bottom in 2009 only 2 or 3 years after the peak

and that’s without going into the magnitude of the cycle that peaked in 2006/7 – it might be reasonable to expect a larger (longer?) than normal down cycle after the bursting of the largest real estate bubble the planet has ever seen

[4plexowner]

here’s the math

peak in 2006/7

typical time from peak to trough in SoCal is 6 or 7 years

2006/7 plus 6 or 7 takes us to 2012 to 2014 for the next trough

then we scrape along the bottom for 2 or 3 years so we are looking at 2014 to 2017 when the next appreciation cycle starts (not peaks)

~

it isn’t relevant to this thread but I don’t understand how people can think we have reached a bottom in 2009 only 2 or 3 years after the peak

and that’s without going into the magnitude of the cycle that peaked in 2006/7 – it might be reasonable to expect a larger (longer?) than normal down cycle after the bursting of the largest real estate bubble the planet has ever seen

[Author]

Posts