Basic affordability metrics

[waiting for bottom]

Larry the Renter is way off base…how can you claim buy premium but no rent premium. Give me a break.

Call me a Pigg or whatever you want, the bottom line is that I could buy into CV or Carlsbad or Encinitas if I wanted to. However, I am financially smart/conservative enough to know better. It is an absolute no-brainer that those areas will fall 10-30% over the next 2-3 years based on fundamentals…pick your metric.

I have worked too hard to let my downpayment get washed away by my eagerness to buy now.

[DWCAP]

One thing I kinda notice is that alot of piggs who are buying or looking to buy soon in the NC area are usually high two income households or in the top 5% of single income earners (Raptorduck). Many of them (not all) are also people who are using previous gains to buy down the cost of the morgage. Most of the most vocal griping about how out of wack it all is is coming from people who are above average income earners, but usually single or buying their first house. They dont have the bonus of bubble gains to buy down the morgage payment and the extra income that comes with a two income household. If housing was at historical norms, these single/beginnger buyers would be able to buy today.
Neither group really seems to understand each other.

[DWCAP]

One thing I kinda notice is that alot of piggs who are buying or looking to buy soon in the NC area are usually high two income households or in the top 5% of single income earners (Raptorduck). Many of them (not all) are also people who are using previous gains to buy down the cost of the morgage. Most of the most vocal griping about how out of wack it all is is coming from people who are above average income earners, but usually single or buying their first house. They dont have the bonus of bubble gains to buy down the morgage payment and the extra income that comes with a two income household. If housing was at historical norms, these single/beginnger buyers would be able to buy today.
Neither group really seems to understand each other.

[DWCAP]

One thing I kinda notice is that alot of piggs who are buying or looking to buy soon in the NC area are usually high two income households or in the top 5% of single income earners (Raptorduck). Many of them (not all) are also people who are using previous gains to buy down the cost of the morgage. Most of the most vocal griping about how out of wack it all is is coming from people who are above average income earners, but usually single or buying their first house. They dont have the bonus of bubble gains to buy down the morgage payment and the extra income that comes with a two income household. If housing was at historical norms, these single/beginnger buyers would be able to buy today.
Neither group really seems to understand each other.

[DWCAP]

One thing I kinda notice is that alot of piggs who are buying or looking to buy soon in the NC area are usually high two income households or in the top 5% of single income earners (Raptorduck). Many of them (not all) are also people who are using previous gains to buy down the cost of the morgage. Most of the most vocal griping about how out of wack it all is is coming from people who are above average income earners, but usually single or buying their first house. They dont have the bonus of bubble gains to buy down the morgage payment and the extra income that comes with a two income household. If housing was at historical norms, these single/beginnger buyers would be able to buy today.
Neither group really seems to understand each other.

[DWCAP]

One thing I kinda notice is that alot of piggs who are buying or looking to buy soon in the NC area are usually high two income households or in the top 5% of single income earners (Raptorduck). Many of them (not all) are also people who are using previous gains to buy down the cost of the morgage. Most of the most vocal griping about how out of wack it all is is coming from people who are above average income earners, but usually single or buying their first house. They dont have the bonus of bubble gains to buy down the morgage payment and the extra income that comes with a two income household. If housing was at historical norms, these single/beginnger buyers would be able to buy today.
Neither group really seems to understand each other.

[jpinpb]

Waiting for bottom – or any other bearish conservative Pigg – do you think by the time this whole mess is said and done that prices will fall below 2000 prices in desireable areas?

I’ve seen some charts on BMIT from the UT, and this one particular chart showed unemployment in the 90’s was in negative. The chart didn’t show the hike in the ’80’s.

If history repeats itself, will the unemployment go so into the negative territory and push prices lower than before we had the subprime loans[img_assist|nid=7282|title=BMIT chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=308]

Mostly wondering if this place I am trying to buy at 2000 prices is a good deal. It’s a major fixer along the coast that I really like. Too tempting to pass up.

[jpinpb]

Waiting for bottom – or any other bearish conservative Pigg – do you think by the time this whole mess is said and done that prices will fall below 2000 prices in desireable areas?

I’ve seen some charts on BMIT from the UT, and this one particular chart showed unemployment in the 90’s was in negative. The chart didn’t show the hike in the ’80’s.

If history repeats itself, will the unemployment go so into the negative territory and push prices lower than before we had the subprime loans[img_assist|nid=7282|title=BMIT chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=308]

Mostly wondering if this place I am trying to buy at 2000 prices is a good deal. It’s a major fixer along the coast that I really like. Too tempting to pass up.

[jpinpb]

Waiting for bottom – or any other bearish conservative Pigg – do you think by the time this whole mess is said and done that prices will fall below 2000 prices in desireable areas?

I’ve seen some charts on BMIT from the UT, and this one particular chart showed unemployment in the 90’s was in negative. The chart didn’t show the hike in the ’80’s.

If history repeats itself, will the unemployment go so into the negative territory and push prices lower than before we had the subprime loans[img_assist|nid=7282|title=BMIT chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=308]

Mostly wondering if this place I am trying to buy at 2000 prices is a good deal. It’s a major fixer along the coast that I really like. Too tempting to pass up.

[jpinpb]

Waiting for bottom – or any other bearish conservative Pigg – do you think by the time this whole mess is said and done that prices will fall below 2000 prices in desireable areas?

I’ve seen some charts on BMIT from the UT, and this one particular chart showed unemployment in the 90’s was in negative. The chart didn’t show the hike in the ’80’s.

If history repeats itself, will the unemployment go so into the negative territory and push prices lower than before we had the subprime loans[img_assist|nid=7282|title=BMIT chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=308]

Mostly wondering if this place I am trying to buy at 2000 prices is a good deal. It’s a major fixer along the coast that I really like. Too tempting to pass up.

[jpinpb]

Waiting for bottom – or any other bearish conservative Pigg – do you think by the time this whole mess is said and done that prices will fall below 2000 prices in desireable areas?

I’ve seen some charts on BMIT from the UT, and this one particular chart showed unemployment in the 90’s was in negative. The chart didn’t show the hike in the ’80’s.

If history repeats itself, will the unemployment go so into the negative territory and push prices lower than before we had the subprime loans[img_assist|nid=7282|title=BMIT chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=308]

Mostly wondering if this place I am trying to buy at 2000 prices is a good deal. It’s a major fixer along the coast that I really like. Too tempting to pass up.

[SDEngineer]

It’s the demographics of various areas vs. their prices that tell me it’s out of whack – not what I think my personal income should support.

Look at the median income in 4S Ranch or CMR. It’s not upwards of 200K/yr. In 4S, it’s actually below 100K/yr, and in CMR, it’s only a little above (about 120K/yr).

While some certainly probably bought in relatively smartly (funding a large down payment with proceeds from a house sale during the bubble for example), and so will be able to afford it, there will also be plenty that bought more home than they can afford with option ARMs or similar. And in the long run, these “move-up” types of houses will need to drop in price so that post-bubble “mover-uppers” can get into those houses and afford them with the down payments they get from selling their post-bubble first houses.

[SDEngineer]

It’s the demographics of various areas vs. their prices that tell me it’s out of whack – not what I think my personal income should support.

Look at the median income in 4S Ranch or CMR. It’s not upwards of 200K/yr. In 4S, it’s actually below 100K/yr, and in CMR, it’s only a little above (about 120K/yr).

While some certainly probably bought in relatively smartly (funding a large down payment with proceeds from a house sale during the bubble for example), and so will be able to afford it, there will also be plenty that bought more home than they can afford with option ARMs or similar. And in the long run, these “move-up” types of houses will need to drop in price so that post-bubble “mover-uppers” can get into those houses and afford them with the down payments they get from selling their post-bubble first houses.

[SDEngineer]

It’s the demographics of various areas vs. their prices that tell me it’s out of whack – not what I think my personal income should support.

Look at the median income in 4S Ranch or CMR. It’s not upwards of 200K/yr. In 4S, it’s actually below 100K/yr, and in CMR, it’s only a little above (about 120K/yr).

While some certainly probably bought in relatively smartly (funding a large down payment with proceeds from a house sale during the bubble for example), and so will be able to afford it, there will also be plenty that bought more home than they can afford with option ARMs or similar. And in the long run, these “move-up” types of houses will need to drop in price so that post-bubble “mover-uppers” can get into those houses and afford them with the down payments they get from selling their post-bubble first houses.

[SDEngineer]

It’s the demographics of various areas vs. their prices that tell me it’s out of whack – not what I think my personal income should support.

Look at the median income in 4S Ranch or CMR. It’s not upwards of 200K/yr. In 4S, it’s actually below 100K/yr, and in CMR, it’s only a little above (about 120K/yr).

While some certainly probably bought in relatively smartly (funding a large down payment with proceeds from a house sale during the bubble for example), and so will be able to afford it, there will also be plenty that bought more home than they can afford with option ARMs or similar. And in the long run, these “move-up” types of houses will need to drop in price so that post-bubble “mover-uppers” can get into those houses and afford them with the down payments they get from selling their post-bubble first houses.

[Author]

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