Basic affordability metrics

[SDEngineer]

Nesposito:

Some bubble areas were more bubbly than others, but the nation as a whole has experienced this housing bubble.

San Diego is no different from the other inflated cities, all of which are dropping at this point. New York didn’t have as much of a bubble to begin with (very high salaries had always supported a very high median home price in the city), but even so, their prices are also now dropping. The SF Bay area is also dropping like a rock right now, just not quite as much of a rock as San Diego, Phoenix, Miami, and Las Vegas, which is why those cities are getting the majority of the press.

San Diego did hit the hyperinflation phase of the bubble about a year earlier than most of the other cities, and we also topped out earlier, but at this point, the Case-Shiller indexes (and the other indexes) now have pretty much all of the bubble cities in free-fall with regards to prices.

[jpinpb]

SDE – Thank you for explaining that. It’s helpful to have information to assist in making proper decisions when buying. If 40% is normal appreciation, I won’t expect prices to come down much along the coast.

[jpinpb]

SDE – Thank you for explaining that. It’s helpful to have information to assist in making proper decisions when buying. If 40% is normal appreciation, I won’t expect prices to come down much along the coast.

[jpinpb]

SDE – Thank you for explaining that. It’s helpful to have information to assist in making proper decisions when buying. If 40% is normal appreciation, I won’t expect prices to come down much along the coast.

[jpinpb]

SDE – Thank you for explaining that. It’s helpful to have information to assist in making proper decisions when buying. If 40% is normal appreciation, I won’t expect prices to come down much along the coast.

[jpinpb]

SDE – Thank you for explaining that. It’s helpful to have information to assist in making proper decisions when buying. If 40% is normal appreciation, I won’t expect prices to come down much along the coast.

[jpinpb]

I’m learning also, but just right off the bat, the thing that comes to mind to me that seems different, I’d say NY and SF, most generally speaking, have a higher median salary than SD. Though the prices are higher, I’ll go out on a limb and say it’s only slightly more affordable b/c their income is greater than here, where prices are high and incomes don’t correlate, generally speaking. I hope I can say that, since that seems to be an issue discussed, how income to COL ratio is not the best here. I think that is argued often and MHO the prices are not justified. Also, I’m not sure how prevalent subprime loans were in NYC. I know it’s a nationwide problem, but whenever MSM discusses it, seems like California, Florida, Vegas, Boston seem to be main states/cities regularly mentioned.

[jpinpb]

I’m learning also, but just right off the bat, the thing that comes to mind to me that seems different, I’d say NY and SF, most generally speaking, have a higher median salary than SD. Though the prices are higher, I’ll go out on a limb and say it’s only slightly more affordable b/c their income is greater than here, where prices are high and incomes don’t correlate, generally speaking. I hope I can say that, since that seems to be an issue discussed, how income to COL ratio is not the best here. I think that is argued often and MHO the prices are not justified. Also, I’m not sure how prevalent subprime loans were in NYC. I know it’s a nationwide problem, but whenever MSM discusses it, seems like California, Florida, Vegas, Boston seem to be main states/cities regularly mentioned.

[jpinpb]

I’m learning also, but just right off the bat, the thing that comes to mind to me that seems different, I’d say NY and SF, most generally speaking, have a higher median salary than SD. Though the prices are higher, I’ll go out on a limb and say it’s only slightly more affordable b/c their income is greater than here, where prices are high and incomes don’t correlate, generally speaking. I hope I can say that, since that seems to be an issue discussed, how income to COL ratio is not the best here. I think that is argued often and MHO the prices are not justified. Also, I’m not sure how prevalent subprime loans were in NYC. I know it’s a nationwide problem, but whenever MSM discusses it, seems like California, Florida, Vegas, Boston seem to be main states/cities regularly mentioned.

[jpinpb]

I’m learning also, but just right off the bat, the thing that comes to mind to me that seems different, I’d say NY and SF, most generally speaking, have a higher median salary than SD. Though the prices are higher, I’ll go out on a limb and say it’s only slightly more affordable b/c their income is greater than here, where prices are high and incomes don’t correlate, generally speaking. I hope I can say that, since that seems to be an issue discussed, how income to COL ratio is not the best here. I think that is argued often and MHO the prices are not justified. Also, I’m not sure how prevalent subprime loans were in NYC. I know it’s a nationwide problem, but whenever MSM discusses it, seems like California, Florida, Vegas, Boston seem to be main states/cities regularly mentioned.

[jpinpb]

I’m learning also, but just right off the bat, the thing that comes to mind to me that seems different, I’d say NY and SF, most generally speaking, have a higher median salary than SD. Though the prices are higher, I’ll go out on a limb and say it’s only slightly more affordable b/c their income is greater than here, where prices are high and incomes don’t correlate, generally speaking. I hope I can say that, since that seems to be an issue discussed, how income to COL ratio is not the best here. I think that is argued often and MHO the prices are not justified. Also, I’m not sure how prevalent subprime loans were in NYC. I know it’s a nationwide problem, but whenever MSM discusses it, seems like California, Florida, Vegas, Boston seem to be main states/cities regularly mentioned.

[SD Realtor]

First off, sorry to deviate off the main topic of the thread which was questioning the valuations of rents being charged. SDE made the best post, it IS all about supply and demand. If there is demand for that 4k monthly rent, then the home will rent… it is all pretty simple.

As for the property sales… It is a tough call… Again, there can be no argument that valuations are out of whack… The premium for living in some of these more desireable parts of the county makes no fiscal sense to me but it a few of these homes are selling. I took a quick look at 92130 sales since 3/1/08. Here is the financing picture:

Sales price Date Financed
590 3/5 410
620 4/1 496
675 4/7 0
694 4/3 548
725 4/4 0
765 3/11 480
800 3/20 730
780 4/17 not recorded yet
784 3/17 417
795 4/11 532
863 3/19 567
868 3/25 350
870 4/10 290
870 3/17 550
885 4/11 775
903.5 4/4 403.5
950 3/18 712.5
950 4/3 780
987 3/13 575
1.09 3/18 475
1.125 4/4 843
1.17 4/18 not recorded
1.175 3/13 881
1.2 4/3 800
1.25 3/6 417
1.25 (lot not a home) 3/26 0
1.25 3/13 1M (actually 1,000,001) which is kind of peculiar….
1.41 4/8 1.1M
1.425 3/11 400
1.775 3/14 1.42M
1.85 4/3 1.1M
1.975 3/27 0
2.1 3/10 1M
2.275 3/20 0
3.225 4/15 not recorded yet.

So anyways, people can take this data anyway they want. Some of you may say, oh man… these guys are foreclosures waiting to happen. Personally I don’t think so.

Once more, this is not anything but data. My premise is that in communities like this, I really do throw out mean or median incomes and such. I am not saying Carmel Valley will not go down. I just think that sometimes there is a bit to much insight trying to be made on some of the statistics and that once more I detect a little of the “prices HAVE to go to such and such a level”… Maybe they will, maybe they won’t… I am always surprised at how much money there is out there.

[SD Realtor]

First off, sorry to deviate off the main topic of the thread which was questioning the valuations of rents being charged. SDE made the best post, it IS all about supply and demand. If there is demand for that 4k monthly rent, then the home will rent… it is all pretty simple.

As for the property sales… It is a tough call… Again, there can be no argument that valuations are out of whack… The premium for living in some of these more desireable parts of the county makes no fiscal sense to me but it a few of these homes are selling. I took a quick look at 92130 sales since 3/1/08. Here is the financing picture:

Sales price Date Financed
590 3/5 410
620 4/1 496
675 4/7 0
694 4/3 548
725 4/4 0
765 3/11 480
800 3/20 730
780 4/17 not recorded yet
784 3/17 417
795 4/11 532
863 3/19 567
868 3/25 350
870 4/10 290
870 3/17 550
885 4/11 775
903.5 4/4 403.5
950 3/18 712.5
950 4/3 780
987 3/13 575
1.09 3/18 475
1.125 4/4 843
1.17 4/18 not recorded
1.175 3/13 881
1.2 4/3 800
1.25 3/6 417
1.25 (lot not a home) 3/26 0
1.25 3/13 1M (actually 1,000,001) which is kind of peculiar….
1.41 4/8 1.1M
1.425 3/11 400
1.775 3/14 1.42M
1.85 4/3 1.1M
1.975 3/27 0
2.1 3/10 1M
2.275 3/20 0
3.225 4/15 not recorded yet.

So anyways, people can take this data anyway they want. Some of you may say, oh man… these guys are foreclosures waiting to happen. Personally I don’t think so.

Once more, this is not anything but data. My premise is that in communities like this, I really do throw out mean or median incomes and such. I am not saying Carmel Valley will not go down. I just think that sometimes there is a bit to much insight trying to be made on some of the statistics and that once more I detect a little of the “prices HAVE to go to such and such a level”… Maybe they will, maybe they won’t… I am always surprised at how much money there is out there.

[SD Realtor]

First off, sorry to deviate off the main topic of the thread which was questioning the valuations of rents being charged. SDE made the best post, it IS all about supply and demand. If there is demand for that 4k monthly rent, then the home will rent… it is all pretty simple.

As for the property sales… It is a tough call… Again, there can be no argument that valuations are out of whack… The premium for living in some of these more desireable parts of the county makes no fiscal sense to me but it a few of these homes are selling. I took a quick look at 92130 sales since 3/1/08. Here is the financing picture:

Sales price Date Financed
590 3/5 410
620 4/1 496
675 4/7 0
694 4/3 548
725 4/4 0
765 3/11 480
800 3/20 730
780 4/17 not recorded yet
784 3/17 417
795 4/11 532
863 3/19 567
868 3/25 350
870 4/10 290
870 3/17 550
885 4/11 775
903.5 4/4 403.5
950 3/18 712.5
950 4/3 780
987 3/13 575
1.09 3/18 475
1.125 4/4 843
1.17 4/18 not recorded
1.175 3/13 881
1.2 4/3 800
1.25 3/6 417
1.25 (lot not a home) 3/26 0
1.25 3/13 1M (actually 1,000,001) which is kind of peculiar….
1.41 4/8 1.1M
1.425 3/11 400
1.775 3/14 1.42M
1.85 4/3 1.1M
1.975 3/27 0
2.1 3/10 1M
2.275 3/20 0
3.225 4/15 not recorded yet.

So anyways, people can take this data anyway they want. Some of you may say, oh man… these guys are foreclosures waiting to happen. Personally I don’t think so.

Once more, this is not anything but data. My premise is that in communities like this, I really do throw out mean or median incomes and such. I am not saying Carmel Valley will not go down. I just think that sometimes there is a bit to much insight trying to be made on some of the statistics and that once more I detect a little of the “prices HAVE to go to such and such a level”… Maybe they will, maybe they won’t… I am always surprised at how much money there is out there.

[SD Realtor]

First off, sorry to deviate off the main topic of the thread which was questioning the valuations of rents being charged. SDE made the best post, it IS all about supply and demand. If there is demand for that 4k monthly rent, then the home will rent… it is all pretty simple.

As for the property sales… It is a tough call… Again, there can be no argument that valuations are out of whack… The premium for living in some of these more desireable parts of the county makes no fiscal sense to me but it a few of these homes are selling. I took a quick look at 92130 sales since 3/1/08. Here is the financing picture:

Sales price Date Financed
590 3/5 410
620 4/1 496
675 4/7 0
694 4/3 548
725 4/4 0
765 3/11 480
800 3/20 730
780 4/17 not recorded yet
784 3/17 417
795 4/11 532
863 3/19 567
868 3/25 350
870 4/10 290
870 3/17 550
885 4/11 775
903.5 4/4 403.5
950 3/18 712.5
950 4/3 780
987 3/13 575
1.09 3/18 475
1.125 4/4 843
1.17 4/18 not recorded
1.175 3/13 881
1.2 4/3 800
1.25 3/6 417
1.25 (lot not a home) 3/26 0
1.25 3/13 1M (actually 1,000,001) which is kind of peculiar….
1.41 4/8 1.1M
1.425 3/11 400
1.775 3/14 1.42M
1.85 4/3 1.1M
1.975 3/27 0
2.1 3/10 1M
2.275 3/20 0
3.225 4/15 not recorded yet.

So anyways, people can take this data anyway they want. Some of you may say, oh man… these guys are foreclosures waiting to happen. Personally I don’t think so.

Once more, this is not anything but data. My premise is that in communities like this, I really do throw out mean or median incomes and such. I am not saying Carmel Valley will not go down. I just think that sometimes there is a bit to much insight trying to be made on some of the statistics and that once more I detect a little of the “prices HAVE to go to such and such a level”… Maybe they will, maybe they won’t… I am always surprised at how much money there is out there.

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