bail out math, WTF?

[Anonymous]

I don’t see this helping the people who were in the Option ARM or a stated loan. I don’t see many (80%+) being able to afford or qualify for a real loan. I can see this program helping people who qualified for & have a real loan but just bought at the wrong time and are now upside down.

I wonder if this is going to be like the jumbo fannie/freddie flop.

[PadreBrian]

It’s true that this new(old) plan won’t help the people that did the stated loans. They NOW have to re-qualify for the new loan…YES the house price will be 20-30% lower…but they still have to have perfect ficos and a great ratio…which is hard to do.

Knowing that, that 20% help rate seems a little high…I don’t think 20% of the stated crowd will even qualify.

[PadreBrian]

It’s true that this new(old) plan won’t help the people that did the stated loans. They NOW have to re-qualify for the new loan…YES the house price will be 20-30% lower…but they still have to have perfect ficos and a great ratio…which is hard to do.

Knowing that, that 20% help rate seems a little high…I don’t think 20% of the stated crowd will even qualify.

[PadreBrian]

It’s true that this new(old) plan won’t help the people that did the stated loans. They NOW have to re-qualify for the new loan…YES the house price will be 20-30% lower…but they still have to have perfect ficos and a great ratio…which is hard to do.

Knowing that, that 20% help rate seems a little high…I don’t think 20% of the stated crowd will even qualify.

[PadreBrian]

It’s true that this new(old) plan won’t help the people that did the stated loans. They NOW have to re-qualify for the new loan…YES the house price will be 20-30% lower…but they still have to have perfect ficos and a great ratio…which is hard to do.

Knowing that, that 20% help rate seems a little high…I don’t think 20% of the stated crowd will even qualify.

[PadreBrian]

It’s true that this new(old) plan won’t help the people that did the stated loans. They NOW have to re-qualify for the new loan…YES the house price will be 20-30% lower…but they still have to have perfect ficos and a great ratio…which is hard to do.

Knowing that, that 20% help rate seems a little high…I don’t think 20% of the stated crowd will even qualify.

[Anonymous]

I really think it’s 95%(or more) of the borrowers that are screwed.
I thought I’d be optimistic and say 20% of the people could be helped, if they had an option ARM or stated loan.

So many of the borrowers in the option ARM could barely afford the minimum payment. The qualifying ratios that were used were moronic. I believe when Countrywide finally changed their qualifying method for the option ARM, they said 9 out of 10 people currently in the option ARM wouldn’t qualify for a new option ARM with the new guidelines.

The option ARM has special powers. It’s guaranteed to make the home owner a home renter in 3 to 4 years.

[Anonymous]

I really think it’s 95%(or more) of the borrowers that are screwed.
I thought I’d be optimistic and say 20% of the people could be helped, if they had an option ARM or stated loan.

So many of the borrowers in the option ARM could barely afford the minimum payment. The qualifying ratios that were used were moronic. I believe when Countrywide finally changed their qualifying method for the option ARM, they said 9 out of 10 people currently in the option ARM wouldn’t qualify for a new option ARM with the new guidelines.

The option ARM has special powers. It’s guaranteed to make the home owner a home renter in 3 to 4 years.

[Anonymous]

I really think it’s 95%(or more) of the borrowers that are screwed.
I thought I’d be optimistic and say 20% of the people could be helped, if they had an option ARM or stated loan.

So many of the borrowers in the option ARM could barely afford the minimum payment. The qualifying ratios that were used were moronic. I believe when Countrywide finally changed their qualifying method for the option ARM, they said 9 out of 10 people currently in the option ARM wouldn’t qualify for a new option ARM with the new guidelines.

The option ARM has special powers. It’s guaranteed to make the home owner a home renter in 3 to 4 years.

[Anonymous]

I really think it’s 95%(or more) of the borrowers that are screwed.
I thought I’d be optimistic and say 20% of the people could be helped, if they had an option ARM or stated loan.

So many of the borrowers in the option ARM could barely afford the minimum payment. The qualifying ratios that were used were moronic. I believe when Countrywide finally changed their qualifying method for the option ARM, they said 9 out of 10 people currently in the option ARM wouldn’t qualify for a new option ARM with the new guidelines.

The option ARM has special powers. It’s guaranteed to make the home owner a home renter in 3 to 4 years.

[Anonymous]

I really think it’s 95%(or more) of the borrowers that are screwed.
I thought I’d be optimistic and say 20% of the people could be helped, if they had an option ARM or stated loan.

So many of the borrowers in the option ARM could barely afford the minimum payment. The qualifying ratios that were used were moronic. I believe when Countrywide finally changed their qualifying method for the option ARM, they said 9 out of 10 people currently in the option ARM wouldn’t qualify for a new option ARM with the new guidelines.

The option ARM has special powers. It’s guaranteed to make the home owner a home renter in 3 to 4 years.

[temeculaguy]

This is all noise, almost nobody will be saved, not the market, not those distressed, it will pass just before the elections, make people feel warm and fuzzy, get their votes and then it wont work for them.

Think of a real person that you know is in distress and use their numbers, I’ll give a conservative scenario.

Someone buys a zero down home for 500k on 100k income and gets a payment in the neighborhood of 2500 with a reset closer to 3500 to 4000 and cant float it any longer. Somehow they managed to not go into any cc debt, have a $400 car payment and never missed a payment. Their value is down to 400k so the FHA will let them refi into an 80% LTV so all they can borrow is 320k and they can just about qualify for 320k with those numbers. So if they can find 180k under a rock, they can get in on this new lifesaving program. If the bank wants to eat 180k they can let them out. But why would the bank let them is the true value is 400k, even with repo fees they stand to do better than 80k in the hole, this person has still not missed a payment and they are still profiting from the loan.

Apply the real world scenario of less income, greater loss in value, missed payments, higher car payments, credit cards debt, etc., etc. and the feasablity declines even more. So even in a goldilocks scenario it doesn’t pencil out, add some spices and it really doesn’t work. Oh Yeah, i forgot, by the time this things even passes the interest rate will be higher and values will be lower, nobody actually is helped but it looks like they tried and they cared. It’s all noise, it has never been anything but noise, stop worrying, the invisible hand is on it’s way.

[temeculaguy]

This is all noise, almost nobody will be saved, not the market, not those distressed, it will pass just before the elections, make people feel warm and fuzzy, get their votes and then it wont work for them.

Think of a real person that you know is in distress and use their numbers, I’ll give a conservative scenario.

Someone buys a zero down home for 500k on 100k income and gets a payment in the neighborhood of 2500 with a reset closer to 3500 to 4000 and cant float it any longer. Somehow they managed to not go into any cc debt, have a $400 car payment and never missed a payment. Their value is down to 400k so the FHA will let them refi into an 80% LTV so all they can borrow is 320k and they can just about qualify for 320k with those numbers. So if they can find 180k under a rock, they can get in on this new lifesaving program. If the bank wants to eat 180k they can let them out. But why would the bank let them is the true value is 400k, even with repo fees they stand to do better than 80k in the hole, this person has still not missed a payment and they are still profiting from the loan.

Apply the real world scenario of less income, greater loss in value, missed payments, higher car payments, credit cards debt, etc., etc. and the feasablity declines even more. So even in a goldilocks scenario it doesn’t pencil out, add some spices and it really doesn’t work. Oh Yeah, i forgot, by the time this things even passes the interest rate will be higher and values will be lower, nobody actually is helped but it looks like they tried and they cared. It’s all noise, it has never been anything but noise, stop worrying, the invisible hand is on it’s way.

[temeculaguy]

This is all noise, almost nobody will be saved, not the market, not those distressed, it will pass just before the elections, make people feel warm and fuzzy, get their votes and then it wont work for them.

Think of a real person that you know is in distress and use their numbers, I’ll give a conservative scenario.

Someone buys a zero down home for 500k on 100k income and gets a payment in the neighborhood of 2500 with a reset closer to 3500 to 4000 and cant float it any longer. Somehow they managed to not go into any cc debt, have a $400 car payment and never missed a payment. Their value is down to 400k so the FHA will let them refi into an 80% LTV so all they can borrow is 320k and they can just about qualify for 320k with those numbers. So if they can find 180k under a rock, they can get in on this new lifesaving program. If the bank wants to eat 180k they can let them out. But why would the bank let them is the true value is 400k, even with repo fees they stand to do better than 80k in the hole, this person has still not missed a payment and they are still profiting from the loan.

Apply the real world scenario of less income, greater loss in value, missed payments, higher car payments, credit cards debt, etc., etc. and the feasablity declines even more. So even in a goldilocks scenario it doesn’t pencil out, add some spices and it really doesn’t work. Oh Yeah, i forgot, by the time this things even passes the interest rate will be higher and values will be lower, nobody actually is helped but it looks like they tried and they cared. It’s all noise, it has never been anything but noise, stop worrying, the invisible hand is on it’s way.

[temeculaguy]

This is all noise, almost nobody will be saved, not the market, not those distressed, it will pass just before the elections, make people feel warm and fuzzy, get their votes and then it wont work for them.

Think of a real person that you know is in distress and use their numbers, I’ll give a conservative scenario.

Someone buys a zero down home for 500k on 100k income and gets a payment in the neighborhood of 2500 with a reset closer to 3500 to 4000 and cant float it any longer. Somehow they managed to not go into any cc debt, have a $400 car payment and never missed a payment. Their value is down to 400k so the FHA will let them refi into an 80% LTV so all they can borrow is 320k and they can just about qualify for 320k with those numbers. So if they can find 180k under a rock, they can get in on this new lifesaving program. If the bank wants to eat 180k they can let them out. But why would the bank let them is the true value is 400k, even with repo fees they stand to do better than 80k in the hole, this person has still not missed a payment and they are still profiting from the loan.

Apply the real world scenario of less income, greater loss in value, missed payments, higher car payments, credit cards debt, etc., etc. and the feasablity declines even more. So even in a goldilocks scenario it doesn’t pencil out, add some spices and it really doesn’t work. Oh Yeah, i forgot, by the time this things even passes the interest rate will be higher and values will be lower, nobody actually is helped but it looks like they tried and they cared. It’s all noise, it has never been anything but noise, stop worrying, the invisible hand is on it’s way.

[Author]

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