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[an]

[quote=sdrealtor]SD was on fire before COVID. Has the COVID market had an influence here? Absolutely and no one here has ever said otherwise. What we have been saying all along is that there is a lot going on here. Not one thing but multiple things that have been building for quite some time. That is why so many here hopped onto the opportunity of a lifetime between 2009 and 2012 that are now reaping rich rewards. I spent my morning running around CraneTown and counted a dozen massive cranes working in the Golden Triangle. They aren’t building houses, they are building jobs while others missed out on the opportunity of a lifetime[/quote]
CraneTown, love it! Opportunity of a life time for sure.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita][quote=deadzone]And yet real estate has been and continues to be on fire throughout the US since Covid. In some cities more so than San Diego. This suggests that Covid policy (i.e. Fed money printing) is a far larger influence on this red hot RE market than the so called “unicorn” companies in San Diego. I’m not suggesting that SD isn’t growing and in better position than many other cities. But let’s be realistic here. The Covid market is on fire due to Covid policies.[/quote]

So now you’re deflecting and arguing SD housing demand isnt growing due to job expansion despite what reports says about job expansion in SD.

Interesting.

Um ok.

I’m really curious though… If you’re expecting a lot of higher compensated people suddenly are jobless , what makes you think you won’t be and would be in a better financial situation then them.[/quote]

And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?

[an]

[quote=deadzone]And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?[/quote]
So, when do you expect this bubble to pop like 2008?

[Anonymous]

[quote=an][quote=deadzone]And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?[/quote]
So, when do you expect this bubble to pop like 2008?[/quote]

Who knows when it will pop. But a hell of a lot of signals are pointing to the fact that it is leaking serious oil, right now. If you can’t see them you are blind.

Fed publicly stating since Nov that they will begin tightening their balance sheet and raise interest rates starting in March. Large public RE companies getting absolutely ass pounded in the markets. I tried to point out Zillow but the usual excuses that the problem was isolated to Zillow, as if they don’t know what they are doing. Well obviously that’s bullshit. I told you guys to watch out that their competitors would soon follow. Today Redfin and Opendoor both set 52 week low in the stock market. Investors are sure seeing the end of housing bubble.

So the signals are there and they keep getting stronger.

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone]And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?[/quote]

I don’t think there is a bubble. There’s an unfavorable pricing issue for those that chose to sit out buying …. if there is any downturn some people will have a hard time paying their mortgage. But I think there will be plenty of other people to take their place….unless we have a huge meltdown….but then if that happens, I doubt you would be able to take advantage of it since you would probably be unemployed just like everyone else.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?[/quote]
So, when do you expect this bubble to pop like 2008?[/quote]

Who knows when it will pop. But a hell of a lot of signals are pointing to the fact that it is leaking serious oil, right now. If you can’t see them you are blind.

Fed publicly stating since Nov that they will begin tightening their balance sheet and raise interest rates starting in March. Large public RE companies getting absolutely ass pounded in the markets. I tried to point out Zillow but the usual excuses that the problem was isolated to Zillow, as if they don’t know what they are doing. Well obviously that’s bullshit. I told you guys to watch out that their competitors would soon follow. Today Redfin and Opendoor both set 52 week low in the stock market. Investors are sure seeing the end of housing bubble.

So the signals are there and they keep getting stronger.[/quote]

Uh welcome to nasdaq. This isn’t real estate companies it’s every highly leveraged unprofitable growth company (disclosure: I own none of these real estate companies) out there. I took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime to buy quality real estate and great profitable companies at for sale prices. Residential real estate has never been a Wall Street darling. It’sa Main Street darling. Real estate brokerage has never been highly profitable. Owning real estate has been for regular folks like me and y…, oops

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=an][quote=deadzone]And yet you keep deflecting the fact that RE is on fire all over the country. Do you really believe that San Diego is somehow immune to the bubble bursting? Yet so much of the wealth and RE gains in San Diego are a direct result of the bubble inflating?[/quote]
So, when do you expect this bubble to pop like 2008?[/quote]

Who knows when it will pop. But a hell of a lot of signals are pointing to the fact that it is leaking serious oil, right now. If you can’t see them you are blind.

Fed publicly stating since Nov that they will begin tightening their balance sheet and raise interest rates starting in March. Large public RE companies getting absolutely ass pounded in the markets. I tried to point out Zillow but the usual excuses that the problem was isolated to Zillow, as if they don’t know what they are doing. Well obviously that’s bullshit. I told you guys to watch out that their competitors would soon follow. Today Redfin and Opendoor both set 52 week low in the stock market. Investors are sure seeing the end of housing bubble.

So the signals are there and they keep getting stronger.[/quote]

Who cares. For some there’s little to low mortgage. And for the others they are locked into a historical 30 year between 3-4%….during that 30 years they have the opportunity of arbitraging their money elsewhere while not worrying significantly about higher living costs especially with inflation..it probably would cost them close to the same monthly to rent, if not more. I don’t envy people trying to find a rental close to Sorrento Valley, especially if some of them now need to return back to work in a hybrid model. There’s close no inventory for purchase or rent. And even rentals are ending up in a bidding war. Too bad I can’t convince myself to be a dick landlord or I’d be jacking up rent every year.

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor]
Uh welcome to nasdaq. This isn’t real estate companies it’s every highly leveraged unprofitable growth company (disclosure: I own none of these real estate companies) out there. I took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime to buy quality real estate and great profitable companies at for sale prices. Residential real estate has never been a Wall Street darling. It’sa Main Street darling. Real estate brokerage has never been highly profitable. Owning real estate has been for regular folks like me and y…, oops[/quote]

So these ibuyers, big Wall St. investors like Blackrock etc. are not influencing prices of RE? Plus all of the other mom and pop flippers and investors purchasing investment property? Give me a break. Didn’t you learn your lesson in 2008 that RE is susceptible to speculative bubbles? After all of these bubbles in RE you still believe RE is just a Main St business? You can’t possibly be that stupid.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Coronita]

Who cares. For some there’s little to low mortgage. And for the others they are locked into a historical 30 year between 3-4%….during that 30 years they have the opportunity of arbitraging their money elsewhere while not worrying significantly about higher living costs especially with inflation..it probably would cost them close to the same monthly to rent, if not more. I don’t envy people trying to find a rental close to Sorrento Valley, especially if some of them now need to return back to work in a hybrid model. There’s close no inventory for purchase or rent. And even rentals are ending up in a bidding war. Too bad I can’t convince myself to be a dick landlord or I’d be jacking up rent every year.[/quote]

Outside of your own selfish/greedy interests, don’t you think society would be better off with more affordable housing, less inflation, more affordable education, less reliance on debt, etc.?
SDR is always whining about the current runaway inflation as if it is a bad thing. Well the solution to inflation is to let the bubble pop and market crash/correct.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]

Who cares. For some there’s little to low mortgage. And for the others they are locked into a historical 30 year between 3-4%….during that 30 years they have the opportunity of arbitraging their money elsewhere while not worrying significantly about higher living costs especially with inflation..it probably would cost them close to the same monthly to rent, if not more. I don’t envy people trying to find a rental close to Sorrento Valley, especially if some of them now need to return back to work in a hybrid model. There’s close no inventory for purchase or rent. And even rentals are ending up in a bidding war. Too bad I can’t convince myself to be a dick landlord or I’d be jacking up rent every year.[/quote]

Outside of your own selfish/greedy interests, don’t you think society would be better off with more affordable housing, less inflation, more affordable education, less reliance on debt, etc.?
SDR is always whining about the current runaway inflation as if it is a bad thing. Well the solution to inflation is to let the bubble pop and market crash/correct.[/quote]

There is a difference between recognizing market conditions as unfair to many and taking advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime. Its not selfish or greedy its smart to take advantage of fabulous windfall profits. We cant change the market ourselves. Its not our jobs. Enjoy whining away Ive got a tee time to get to

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]
Uh welcome to nasdaq. This isn’t real estate companies it’s every highly leveraged unprofitable growth company (disclosure: I own none of these real estate companies) out there. I took advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime to buy quality real estate and great profitable companies at for sale prices. Residential real estate has never been a Wall Street darling. It’sa Main Street darling. Real estate brokerage has never been highly profitable. Owning real estate has been for regular folks like me and y…, oops[/quote]

So these ibuyers, big Wall St. investors like Blackrock etc. are not influencing prices of RE? Plus all of the other mom and pop flippers and investors purchasing investment property? Give me a break. Didn’t you learn your lesson in 2008 that RE is susceptible to speculative bubbles? After all of these bubbles in RE you still believe RE is just a Main St business? You can’t possibly be that stupid.[/quote]

I cant speak to the country only here. They bought a small amount of mostly crap at vastly inflated prices. Had they not many of them wouldve gone to flippers. When they tried to sell them at above market prices they sat last year until lowered to FMV. Now that the market has spiked again they are getting bailed out to some extent which is actually IMO an investment opportunity for their stocks. Iv e sold hundreds of homes and have seen exactly how the market operates from street level over and over. You are sitting in a crappy rental praying for divine intervention having missed the greatest opportunity of your lifetime

[Coronita]

[quote=deadzone][quote=Coronita]

Who cares. For some there’s little to low mortgage. And for the others they are locked into a historical 30 year between 3-4%….during that 30 years they have the opportunity of arbitraging their money elsewhere while not worrying significantly about higher living costs especially with inflation..it probably would cost them close to the same monthly to rent, if not more. I don’t envy people trying to find a rental close to Sorrento Valley, especially if some of them now need to return back to work in a hybrid model. There’s close no inventory for purchase or rent. And even rentals are ending up in a bidding war. Too bad I can’t convince myself to be a dick landlord or I’d be jacking up rent every year.[/quote]

Outside of your own selfish/greedy interests, don’t you think society would be better off with more affordable housing, less inflation, more affordable education, less reliance on debt, etc.?
SDR is always whining about the current runaway inflation as if it is a bad thing. Well the solution to inflation is to let the bubble pop and market crash/correct.[/quote]

Yes, I do think more affordable housing would be nice. but that’s not my problem to solve, that’s government and builders problem. also, Debt is part of our America culture that will never change, but there is a difference between good debt and bad debt imho.

Also, I don’t think their is anything wrong with tech people getting compensated well for the work they do, especially if it encourages more people in this country to spend the time and energy to be in STEMs. And for those that choose not to, that’s also not my problem to solve….the only thing I can do is to support people young and up and coming in my field so they can have better opportunities than we did….so I spend both time and money l, some of my rental income, to support robotics andscience STEM funds. more money than most single corporate grants from 1 large company, that typically only donated a few hundred or low thousand per fund/team…. If it grows the next generation of highly skilled technical people, that’s good for the next generation of youth who will have better opportunity than us, and good for our country who have more qualified domestic workers..

If other people in different professions are getting left behind that’s someone else’s problem to solve.

[flyer]

DZ, I know you feel the position you are taking in these discussions is the right one, and you have made some very good points, but, I sincerely don’t believe you’re ever going to convince others, who hold opposing views, to change their position wrt real estate investment, regardless of how things may change in the future.

It’s true that windfall profits have been made in real estate, and with other investments, but none of us could have known that at the outset. We were just making educated guesses, and, recently, unique societal events, have made many things extraordinary investments–for now–and as with all things in life, anything can happen.

In the final analysis, no one really owns anything in this world, we’re just borrowing everything we have while we’re here, and then, possibly passing those things on to others who will just borrow them for the short time they are here. It’s all transitory, so why worry about it?

Even if you chose not to invest in real estate, you can still enjoy your life in San Diego, which is what we should all be doing each and every day.

[Coronita]

I don’t think dz’s problem started out with lack of affordability. It seems like more extreme self inflicted pessimism and self imposed sky is falling that resulted hesitation to buy when things were affordable…and subsequently missing the boat…. at this point, I would probably wait for a correction too, or if doesn’t happen, move to Utah.

[an]

sdr, exactly! There are many things we can’t change and don’t agree with. That doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of the situation. Prop 13 and the environmentalists are the reasons I will keep on buying and not sell. At this point, I’m just hoping dz is right, so I can buy more if we see another crash. So, bring it! I’m ready!

[Author]

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