Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Average SD family 2000 vs 2010
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sobmaz.
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February 9, 2011 at 3:04 PM #665241February 9, 2011 at 3:08 PM #664104
jstoesz
Participant[quote=Eugene][quote=jstoesz][quote=Eugene]
That newly created capital is not used to buy anything yet. It is not in the hands of people who do any real buying. It never leaves the vaults of financial institutions or at least it has not yet.[/quote]Bold is mine.[/quote]
Do you expect that it will, any time soon? Do you see a mechanism for that?[/quote]
I can not read the future, but when banks do not have to mark to market, they can hold what ever reserves the wish…
February 9, 2011 at 3:08 PM #664166jstoesz
Participant[quote=Eugene][quote=jstoesz][quote=Eugene]
That newly created capital is not used to buy anything yet. It is not in the hands of people who do any real buying. It never leaves the vaults of financial institutions or at least it has not yet.[/quote]Bold is mine.[/quote]
Do you expect that it will, any time soon? Do you see a mechanism for that?[/quote]
I can not read the future, but when banks do not have to mark to market, they can hold what ever reserves the wish…
February 9, 2011 at 3:08 PM #664773jstoesz
Participant[quote=Eugene][quote=jstoesz][quote=Eugene]
That newly created capital is not used to buy anything yet. It is not in the hands of people who do any real buying. It never leaves the vaults of financial institutions or at least it has not yet.[/quote]Bold is mine.[/quote]
Do you expect that it will, any time soon? Do you see a mechanism for that?[/quote]
I can not read the future, but when banks do not have to mark to market, they can hold what ever reserves the wish…
February 9, 2011 at 3:08 PM #664910jstoesz
Participant[quote=Eugene][quote=jstoesz][quote=Eugene]
That newly created capital is not used to buy anything yet. It is not in the hands of people who do any real buying. It never leaves the vaults of financial institutions or at least it has not yet.[/quote]Bold is mine.[/quote]
Do you expect that it will, any time soon? Do you see a mechanism for that?[/quote]
I can not read the future, but when banks do not have to mark to market, they can hold what ever reserves the wish…
February 9, 2011 at 3:08 PM #665246jstoesz
Participant[quote=Eugene][quote=jstoesz][quote=Eugene]
That newly created capital is not used to buy anything yet. It is not in the hands of people who do any real buying. It never leaves the vaults of financial institutions or at least it has not yet.[/quote]Bold is mine.[/quote]
Do you expect that it will, any time soon? Do you see a mechanism for that?[/quote]
I can not read the future, but when banks do not have to mark to market, they can hold what ever reserves the wish…
February 9, 2011 at 3:22 PM #664114jpinpb
ParticipantCAR – thank you for factoring in the invisible stimulus of free rent for 2+ years. I think it would be error to not consider the impact of that upon our economy.
February 9, 2011 at 3:22 PM #664176jpinpb
ParticipantCAR – thank you for factoring in the invisible stimulus of free rent for 2+ years. I think it would be error to not consider the impact of that upon our economy.
February 9, 2011 at 3:22 PM #664783jpinpb
ParticipantCAR – thank you for factoring in the invisible stimulus of free rent for 2+ years. I think it would be error to not consider the impact of that upon our economy.
February 9, 2011 at 3:22 PM #664920jpinpb
ParticipantCAR – thank you for factoring in the invisible stimulus of free rent for 2+ years. I think it would be error to not consider the impact of that upon our economy.
February 9, 2011 at 3:22 PM #665256jpinpb
ParticipantCAR – thank you for factoring in the invisible stimulus of free rent for 2+ years. I think it would be error to not consider the impact of that upon our economy.
February 9, 2011 at 3:42 PM #664119Eugene
Participant[quote]But why do you think there has been so much investment in emerging markets and in global assets, commodities, etc.? Who do you think is behind all of that money? The financial institutions are behind a lot of that buying (hedging against inflation)[/quote]
The red graph seems to be back on trend of pre-crisis growth. It’s just normal dynamics of emerging economies. China is growing like crazy, for example, even though it’s very hard to invest there for foreigners. You can’t even buy and sell RMB in the forex market, you need to go through one of the state-owned banks and you need a special dispensation from the communist government.
[quote]BTW, do you really think stocks were undervalued in 2009 based on fundamentals (especially forward-looking)?[/quote]
Absolutely. Companies like AA or CAT were trading at single digit P/E’s.
[quote] Do you think the price increases around the world happened **in spite** of all that stimulus?[/quote]
I think that price increases are part of the trend. All those various forms of stimulus helped shorten the crisis somewhat, but they have not been big enough to make any inappropriate influences on prices. Most of them weren’t even real (like the aforementioned tripling of the monetary base), they were just moving digits around with no impact on the physical world around us.
February 9, 2011 at 3:42 PM #664181Eugene
Participant[quote]But why do you think there has been so much investment in emerging markets and in global assets, commodities, etc.? Who do you think is behind all of that money? The financial institutions are behind a lot of that buying (hedging against inflation)[/quote]
The red graph seems to be back on trend of pre-crisis growth. It’s just normal dynamics of emerging economies. China is growing like crazy, for example, even though it’s very hard to invest there for foreigners. You can’t even buy and sell RMB in the forex market, you need to go through one of the state-owned banks and you need a special dispensation from the communist government.
[quote]BTW, do you really think stocks were undervalued in 2009 based on fundamentals (especially forward-looking)?[/quote]
Absolutely. Companies like AA or CAT were trading at single digit P/E’s.
[quote] Do you think the price increases around the world happened **in spite** of all that stimulus?[/quote]
I think that price increases are part of the trend. All those various forms of stimulus helped shorten the crisis somewhat, but they have not been big enough to make any inappropriate influences on prices. Most of them weren’t even real (like the aforementioned tripling of the monetary base), they were just moving digits around with no impact on the physical world around us.
February 9, 2011 at 3:42 PM #664788Eugene
Participant[quote]But why do you think there has been so much investment in emerging markets and in global assets, commodities, etc.? Who do you think is behind all of that money? The financial institutions are behind a lot of that buying (hedging against inflation)[/quote]
The red graph seems to be back on trend of pre-crisis growth. It’s just normal dynamics of emerging economies. China is growing like crazy, for example, even though it’s very hard to invest there for foreigners. You can’t even buy and sell RMB in the forex market, you need to go through one of the state-owned banks and you need a special dispensation from the communist government.
[quote]BTW, do you really think stocks were undervalued in 2009 based on fundamentals (especially forward-looking)?[/quote]
Absolutely. Companies like AA or CAT were trading at single digit P/E’s.
[quote] Do you think the price increases around the world happened **in spite** of all that stimulus?[/quote]
I think that price increases are part of the trend. All those various forms of stimulus helped shorten the crisis somewhat, but they have not been big enough to make any inappropriate influences on prices. Most of them weren’t even real (like the aforementioned tripling of the monetary base), they were just moving digits around with no impact on the physical world around us.
February 9, 2011 at 3:42 PM #664924Eugene
Participant[quote]But why do you think there has been so much investment in emerging markets and in global assets, commodities, etc.? Who do you think is behind all of that money? The financial institutions are behind a lot of that buying (hedging against inflation)[/quote]
The red graph seems to be back on trend of pre-crisis growth. It’s just normal dynamics of emerging economies. China is growing like crazy, for example, even though it’s very hard to invest there for foreigners. You can’t even buy and sell RMB in the forex market, you need to go through one of the state-owned banks and you need a special dispensation from the communist government.
[quote]BTW, do you really think stocks were undervalued in 2009 based on fundamentals (especially forward-looking)?[/quote]
Absolutely. Companies like AA or CAT were trading at single digit P/E’s.
[quote] Do you think the price increases around the world happened **in spite** of all that stimulus?[/quote]
I think that price increases are part of the trend. All those various forms of stimulus helped shorten the crisis somewhat, but they have not been big enough to make any inappropriate influences on prices. Most of them weren’t even real (like the aforementioned tripling of the monetary base), they were just moving digits around with no impact on the physical world around us.
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