anyone even slightley bullish about RE market?

[sdrealtor]

I am bullish on places like Oceanside, Vista, Mira Mesa, Escondido where prices have rapidly recalibrated and purchases today should look like they were sound decisions in 3 to 5 years. At the opposite end of the scale I am very bearish downtown where sellers and buyers are so far apart it is laughable.

In my area, I am neutral if you can find a good deal on a fabulous property that meets your needs and you can well afford I say go for it. It is getting harder and harder to find a good one. Neighborhoods that had 100 sales per year between 2001 and 2007 have had 40 last year and will likely fall below 20 next year. In general, I think it will take 5 to 7 years for purchases in my market to look sound.

[Aecetia]

I am realistic. I think there are going to be continuing price declines this year and next. How much depends on what happens with loan rates and if the credit market eases up some for those with less than stellar credit scores. I have seen a number of blogs also predicting a spring bounce, but I think once again, that depends on loan rates. I do think there is a lot of money sitting on the side lines waiting for great deals.

[Aecetia]

I am realistic. I think there are going to be continuing price declines this year and next. How much depends on what happens with loan rates and if the credit market eases up some for those with less than stellar credit scores. I have seen a number of blogs also predicting a spring bounce, but I think once again, that depends on loan rates. I do think there is a lot of money sitting on the side lines waiting for great deals.

[Aecetia]

I am realistic. I think there are going to be continuing price declines this year and next. How much depends on what happens with loan rates and if the credit market eases up some for those with less than stellar credit scores. I have seen a number of blogs also predicting a spring bounce, but I think once again, that depends on loan rates. I do think there is a lot of money sitting on the side lines waiting for great deals.

[Aecetia]

I am realistic. I think there are going to be continuing price declines this year and next. How much depends on what happens with loan rates and if the credit market eases up some for those with less than stellar credit scores. I have seen a number of blogs also predicting a spring bounce, but I think once again, that depends on loan rates. I do think there is a lot of money sitting on the side lines waiting for great deals.

[Aecetia]

I am realistic. I think there are going to be continuing price declines this year and next. How much depends on what happens with loan rates and if the credit market eases up some for those with less than stellar credit scores. I have seen a number of blogs also predicting a spring bounce, but I think once again, that depends on loan rates. I do think there is a lot of money sitting on the side lines waiting for great deals.

[sdnerd]

I wouldn’t say I’m feeling particularly bullish but I must say I’m starting to question the depth of future price declines in the areas & prices I’m looking (East CV, RB West, 56 corridor, etc @ 600-800k).

I absolutely don’t see prices moving upwards for years; not until there is wage inflation and that’s in the distant future.

However, the infamous ARM recast graph is starting to concern me less and less. As an example, I have an IO loan that adjusts soon and at today’s index it’s going to drop nearly 1.5% to the 3.% range. I’m actually looking forward to the recast at that rate despite the additional principle payments which are negligible.

If you believe the world governments are going to keep rates low until such time as wage inflation kicks in (which I think they are going to have to do) then a large portion of that second wave of ARM adjustments may not be as bad as it looks.

In that scenario I can see several years of flat/slowly declining prices with inflation eating away.

So I think everything goes back to the job market. That’s really the key to everything.

Assuming the lady and I are still employed towards the end of this year, I suspect we’ll end up buying assuming we can get something that’s taken it’s fair share of price declines. Especially if rates are still in the 5.x range which I suspect they will be.

At least that’s my current thinking these days.

[sdnerd]

I wouldn’t say I’m feeling particularly bullish but I must say I’m starting to question the depth of future price declines in the areas & prices I’m looking (East CV, RB West, 56 corridor, etc @ 600-800k).

I absolutely don’t see prices moving upwards for years; not until there is wage inflation and that’s in the distant future.

However, the infamous ARM recast graph is starting to concern me less and less. As an example, I have an IO loan that adjusts soon and at today’s index it’s going to drop nearly 1.5% to the 3.% range. I’m actually looking forward to the recast at that rate despite the additional principle payments which are negligible.

If you believe the world governments are going to keep rates low until such time as wage inflation kicks in (which I think they are going to have to do) then a large portion of that second wave of ARM adjustments may not be as bad as it looks.

In that scenario I can see several years of flat/slowly declining prices with inflation eating away.

So I think everything goes back to the job market. That’s really the key to everything.

Assuming the lady and I are still employed towards the end of this year, I suspect we’ll end up buying assuming we can get something that’s taken it’s fair share of price declines. Especially if rates are still in the 5.x range which I suspect they will be.

At least that’s my current thinking these days.

[sdnerd]

I wouldn’t say I’m feeling particularly bullish but I must say I’m starting to question the depth of future price declines in the areas & prices I’m looking (East CV, RB West, 56 corridor, etc @ 600-800k).

I absolutely don’t see prices moving upwards for years; not until there is wage inflation and that’s in the distant future.

However, the infamous ARM recast graph is starting to concern me less and less. As an example, I have an IO loan that adjusts soon and at today’s index it’s going to drop nearly 1.5% to the 3.% range. I’m actually looking forward to the recast at that rate despite the additional principle payments which are negligible.

If you believe the world governments are going to keep rates low until such time as wage inflation kicks in (which I think they are going to have to do) then a large portion of that second wave of ARM adjustments may not be as bad as it looks.

In that scenario I can see several years of flat/slowly declining prices with inflation eating away.

So I think everything goes back to the job market. That’s really the key to everything.

Assuming the lady and I are still employed towards the end of this year, I suspect we’ll end up buying assuming we can get something that’s taken it’s fair share of price declines. Especially if rates are still in the 5.x range which I suspect they will be.

At least that’s my current thinking these days.

[sdnerd]

I wouldn’t say I’m feeling particularly bullish but I must say I’m starting to question the depth of future price declines in the areas & prices I’m looking (East CV, RB West, 56 corridor, etc @ 600-800k).

I absolutely don’t see prices moving upwards for years; not until there is wage inflation and that’s in the distant future.

However, the infamous ARM recast graph is starting to concern me less and less. As an example, I have an IO loan that adjusts soon and at today’s index it’s going to drop nearly 1.5% to the 3.% range. I’m actually looking forward to the recast at that rate despite the additional principle payments which are negligible.

If you believe the world governments are going to keep rates low until such time as wage inflation kicks in (which I think they are going to have to do) then a large portion of that second wave of ARM adjustments may not be as bad as it looks.

In that scenario I can see several years of flat/slowly declining prices with inflation eating away.

So I think everything goes back to the job market. That’s really the key to everything.

Assuming the lady and I are still employed towards the end of this year, I suspect we’ll end up buying assuming we can get something that’s taken it’s fair share of price declines. Especially if rates are still in the 5.x range which I suspect they will be.

At least that’s my current thinking these days.

[sdnerd]

I wouldn’t say I’m feeling particularly bullish but I must say I’m starting to question the depth of future price declines in the areas & prices I’m looking (East CV, RB West, 56 corridor, etc @ 600-800k).

I absolutely don’t see prices moving upwards for years; not until there is wage inflation and that’s in the distant future.

However, the infamous ARM recast graph is starting to concern me less and less. As an example, I have an IO loan that adjusts soon and at today’s index it’s going to drop nearly 1.5% to the 3.% range. I’m actually looking forward to the recast at that rate despite the additional principle payments which are negligible.

If you believe the world governments are going to keep rates low until such time as wage inflation kicks in (which I think they are going to have to do) then a large portion of that second wave of ARM adjustments may not be as bad as it looks.

In that scenario I can see several years of flat/slowly declining prices with inflation eating away.

So I think everything goes back to the job market. That’s really the key to everything.

Assuming the lady and I are still employed towards the end of this year, I suspect we’ll end up buying assuming we can get something that’s taken it’s fair share of price declines. Especially if rates are still in the 5.x range which I suspect they will be.

At least that’s my current thinking these days.

[sdduuuude]

TG. Your rent/buy decision point is important, but the assumption of stable rents may be deteriorating.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-rent8-2009jan08,0,5261091.story

I’m starting to think people will be more scared later than they are now, maybe even in Temecula.

Could take many months for Return of the Pain Train , but if rents slip, there goes the neighborhood.

[sdduuuude]

TG. Your rent/buy decision point is important, but the assumption of stable rents may be deteriorating.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-rent8-2009jan08,0,5261091.story

I’m starting to think people will be more scared later than they are now, maybe even in Temecula.

Could take many months for Return of the Pain Train , but if rents slip, there goes the neighborhood.

[sdduuuude]

TG. Your rent/buy decision point is important, but the assumption of stable rents may be deteriorating.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-rent8-2009jan08,0,5261091.story

I’m starting to think people will be more scared later than they are now, maybe even in Temecula.

Could take many months for Return of the Pain Train , but if rents slip, there goes the neighborhood.

[sdduuuude]

TG. Your rent/buy decision point is important, but the assumption of stable rents may be deteriorating.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-rent8-2009jan08,0,5261091.story

I’m starting to think people will be more scared later than they are now, maybe even in Temecula.

Could take many months for Return of the Pain Train , but if rents slip, there goes the neighborhood.

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