Advice needed from the pros

[SD Realtor]

Mercedes things are really tough to predict right now because of the slush factor. I have coined that term because things are slushy to me and nothing really seems to be as it is. We have talked alot about the subsidized market through mechanisms such as squeezing inventory, govt incentives for homebuyers, and low interest rates. No way those things are going to abate. My money is that our esteemed leaders will follow up with another buyers incentive. I think it is a foolhearty waste of my tax dollars but that doesn’t matter. Conversely I do not see unemployment abating however I think it will flatten out. Still I know ALOT of good friends out of work. Plenty of engineers out of work right now. Lots of foreclosures coming as well but it seems like the govt and wall st have developed a methodology of being able to trickle inventory out. Can that continue?

So this post is a rerun of course.

Where you are looking factors into the equation. Your price range is in the think of where ALOT of other people are looking. Going back to your question, and applying it to say PQ. Will PQ drop back to where it was 9 months ago? Will it go lower? I think the answer can be yes to both HOWEVER not under current conditions. If mortgage rates are at 9% then yes it can happen.

For sure do not overestimate the cash factor. As many cash deals as there have been on the market, overall they are still a VERY small percentage. There was another post about cash buyers or flippers swooping in on the market if prices go lower. I could not disagree more. That activity is happening here and now. About flippers, the ones that do it seriously, the big boys that are backed by serious investment money do not buy homes from realtors on the MLS. They buy them in bulk and they buy them at the trustee sales. There are people who buy homes for cash. Yes. We sold a condo in Kearny Mesa last month for cash and the couple that bought it were an Asian couple in LA who had purchased 4 already. Still though, if you look at stats of closed sales, especially 400-500k detached homes, no way are cash deals a large component.

Anyways, sorry I cannot give you the majority of the depreciation answer. I will say yes but ONLY if interest rates can be kept tolerable and honestly I just do not see how that can happen. However to me that will not happen for awhile yet. There is still the fact that our creditors have to finally say ENOUGH TO AMERICAN DEBT!

[mercedes7]

Thanks SD Realtor…

I have been patiently waiting as I fully expected there would be a lot of inventory coming on-line soon, not to mention the option arm resets expected to start in earnest over the next two years. I have been trying to weigh the amount of money “wasted” renting with the potential loss of equity if home prices depreciate substantially from here.

Up until this point it has been a “no-brainer”…I have been much better off renting. However, things have certainly leveled off. Will there be another leg down? Is there really shadow inventory out there, and even if there is, how will it be released and what effect (if any) will it have on prices? (All rhetorical questions of course)

One more question if you don’t mind. At what price point does the competition narrow substantially? 600-650K, or is it higher than that?

Thanks again…

[mercedes7]

Thanks SD Realtor…

I have been patiently waiting as I fully expected there would be a lot of inventory coming on-line soon, not to mention the option arm resets expected to start in earnest over the next two years. I have been trying to weigh the amount of money “wasted” renting with the potential loss of equity if home prices depreciate substantially from here.

Up until this point it has been a “no-brainer”…I have been much better off renting. However, things have certainly leveled off. Will there be another leg down? Is there really shadow inventory out there, and even if there is, how will it be released and what effect (if any) will it have on prices? (All rhetorical questions of course)

One more question if you don’t mind. At what price point does the competition narrow substantially? 600-650K, or is it higher than that?

Thanks again…

[mercedes7]

Thanks SD Realtor…

I have been patiently waiting as I fully expected there would be a lot of inventory coming on-line soon, not to mention the option arm resets expected to start in earnest over the next two years. I have been trying to weigh the amount of money “wasted” renting with the potential loss of equity if home prices depreciate substantially from here.

Up until this point it has been a “no-brainer”…I have been much better off renting. However, things have certainly leveled off. Will there be another leg down? Is there really shadow inventory out there, and even if there is, how will it be released and what effect (if any) will it have on prices? (All rhetorical questions of course)

One more question if you don’t mind. At what price point does the competition narrow substantially? 600-650K, or is it higher than that?

Thanks again…

[mercedes7]

Thanks SD Realtor…

I have been patiently waiting as I fully expected there would be a lot of inventory coming on-line soon, not to mention the option arm resets expected to start in earnest over the next two years. I have been trying to weigh the amount of money “wasted” renting with the potential loss of equity if home prices depreciate substantially from here.

Up until this point it has been a “no-brainer”…I have been much better off renting. However, things have certainly leveled off. Will there be another leg down? Is there really shadow inventory out there, and even if there is, how will it be released and what effect (if any) will it have on prices? (All rhetorical questions of course)

One more question if you don’t mind. At what price point does the competition narrow substantially? 600-650K, or is it higher than that?

Thanks again…

[mercedes7]

Thanks SD Realtor…

I have been patiently waiting as I fully expected there would be a lot of inventory coming on-line soon, not to mention the option arm resets expected to start in earnest over the next two years. I have been trying to weigh the amount of money “wasted” renting with the potential loss of equity if home prices depreciate substantially from here.

Up until this point it has been a “no-brainer”…I have been much better off renting. However, things have certainly leveled off. Will there be another leg down? Is there really shadow inventory out there, and even if there is, how will it be released and what effect (if any) will it have on prices? (All rhetorical questions of course)

One more question if you don’t mind. At what price point does the competition narrow substantially? 600-650K, or is it higher than that?

Thanks again…

[SD Realtor]

Hi Mercedes

Unfortunately I do not have many good answers for you…

Will there be another leg down?

Yes I think there will be. I don’t think it will happen as soon as everyone wants it to happen. If you go back at previous posts there were lots of “tsunami” and tidal wave predictions for 2009. Fundamentally those could have been right but the market is subsidized so poof, they could not have been more wrong. So I think we need to let the string play out and then yes you could see the leg down you are hoping for.

Is there shadow inventory out there?

Yes… however many people like to toss around shadow inventory and think every zip code has tons of it. That is a fallacy and a big mistake. Is there alot of shadow inventory? Yes. Is there more of it in Spring Valley then Penasquitos? Yes absolutely.

How will it be released?

Could not tell you. Honestly to this day I do not even know the rate of release right now. I think there is an underestimation of bulk purchases, and of PPIP purchases however in no way do those activities soak up all the bank held properties. However there are so many defaults out there and future foreclosures that I cannot estimate how they will be released, how they will be hidden, held or whatever.

It is all a shell game now Mercedes.

At what price does the competition narrow substantially?

This is SUPER dependent on the neighborhood and the subject property. I cannot overstate that okay? It really really varies… Sorry for being vague but it is what it is. Give me some zip codes to work with and I may be able to help. However even in those zips there will be super desired properties and super UNDESIRED places.

**********

I cannot tell you if renting fits your needs or not. That depends on you and your family. I think if it is ONLY financial waiting another few years may be advantageous.

[SD Realtor]

Hi Mercedes

Unfortunately I do not have many good answers for you…

Will there be another leg down?

Yes I think there will be. I don’t think it will happen as soon as everyone wants it to happen. If you go back at previous posts there were lots of “tsunami” and tidal wave predictions for 2009. Fundamentally those could have been right but the market is subsidized so poof, they could not have been more wrong. So I think we need to let the string play out and then yes you could see the leg down you are hoping for.

Is there shadow inventory out there?

Yes… however many people like to toss around shadow inventory and think every zip code has tons of it. That is a fallacy and a big mistake. Is there alot of shadow inventory? Yes. Is there more of it in Spring Valley then Penasquitos? Yes absolutely.

How will it be released?

Could not tell you. Honestly to this day I do not even know the rate of release right now. I think there is an underestimation of bulk purchases, and of PPIP purchases however in no way do those activities soak up all the bank held properties. However there are so many defaults out there and future foreclosures that I cannot estimate how they will be released, how they will be hidden, held or whatever.

It is all a shell game now Mercedes.

At what price does the competition narrow substantially?

This is SUPER dependent on the neighborhood and the subject property. I cannot overstate that okay? It really really varies… Sorry for being vague but it is what it is. Give me some zip codes to work with and I may be able to help. However even in those zips there will be super desired properties and super UNDESIRED places.

**********

I cannot tell you if renting fits your needs or not. That depends on you and your family. I think if it is ONLY financial waiting another few years may be advantageous.

[SD Realtor]

Hi Mercedes

Unfortunately I do not have many good answers for you…

Will there be another leg down?

Yes I think there will be. I don’t think it will happen as soon as everyone wants it to happen. If you go back at previous posts there were lots of “tsunami” and tidal wave predictions for 2009. Fundamentally those could have been right but the market is subsidized so poof, they could not have been more wrong. So I think we need to let the string play out and then yes you could see the leg down you are hoping for.

Is there shadow inventory out there?

Yes… however many people like to toss around shadow inventory and think every zip code has tons of it. That is a fallacy and a big mistake. Is there alot of shadow inventory? Yes. Is there more of it in Spring Valley then Penasquitos? Yes absolutely.

How will it be released?

Could not tell you. Honestly to this day I do not even know the rate of release right now. I think there is an underestimation of bulk purchases, and of PPIP purchases however in no way do those activities soak up all the bank held properties. However there are so many defaults out there and future foreclosures that I cannot estimate how they will be released, how they will be hidden, held or whatever.

It is all a shell game now Mercedes.

At what price does the competition narrow substantially?

This is SUPER dependent on the neighborhood and the subject property. I cannot overstate that okay? It really really varies… Sorry for being vague but it is what it is. Give me some zip codes to work with and I may be able to help. However even in those zips there will be super desired properties and super UNDESIRED places.

**********

I cannot tell you if renting fits your needs or not. That depends on you and your family. I think if it is ONLY financial waiting another few years may be advantageous.

[SD Realtor]

Hi Mercedes

Unfortunately I do not have many good answers for you…

Will there be another leg down?

Yes I think there will be. I don’t think it will happen as soon as everyone wants it to happen. If you go back at previous posts there were lots of “tsunami” and tidal wave predictions for 2009. Fundamentally those could have been right but the market is subsidized so poof, they could not have been more wrong. So I think we need to let the string play out and then yes you could see the leg down you are hoping for.

Is there shadow inventory out there?

Yes… however many people like to toss around shadow inventory and think every zip code has tons of it. That is a fallacy and a big mistake. Is there alot of shadow inventory? Yes. Is there more of it in Spring Valley then Penasquitos? Yes absolutely.

How will it be released?

Could not tell you. Honestly to this day I do not even know the rate of release right now. I think there is an underestimation of bulk purchases, and of PPIP purchases however in no way do those activities soak up all the bank held properties. However there are so many defaults out there and future foreclosures that I cannot estimate how they will be released, how they will be hidden, held or whatever.

It is all a shell game now Mercedes.

At what price does the competition narrow substantially?

This is SUPER dependent on the neighborhood and the subject property. I cannot overstate that okay? It really really varies… Sorry for being vague but it is what it is. Give me some zip codes to work with and I may be able to help. However even in those zips there will be super desired properties and super UNDESIRED places.

**********

I cannot tell you if renting fits your needs or not. That depends on you and your family. I think if it is ONLY financial waiting another few years may be advantageous.

[SD Realtor]

Hi Mercedes

Unfortunately I do not have many good answers for you…

Will there be another leg down?

Yes I think there will be. I don’t think it will happen as soon as everyone wants it to happen. If you go back at previous posts there were lots of “tsunami” and tidal wave predictions for 2009. Fundamentally those could have been right but the market is subsidized so poof, they could not have been more wrong. So I think we need to let the string play out and then yes you could see the leg down you are hoping for.

Is there shadow inventory out there?

Yes… however many people like to toss around shadow inventory and think every zip code has tons of it. That is a fallacy and a big mistake. Is there alot of shadow inventory? Yes. Is there more of it in Spring Valley then Penasquitos? Yes absolutely.

How will it be released?

Could not tell you. Honestly to this day I do not even know the rate of release right now. I think there is an underestimation of bulk purchases, and of PPIP purchases however in no way do those activities soak up all the bank held properties. However there are so many defaults out there and future foreclosures that I cannot estimate how they will be released, how they will be hidden, held or whatever.

It is all a shell game now Mercedes.

At what price does the competition narrow substantially?

This is SUPER dependent on the neighborhood and the subject property. I cannot overstate that okay? It really really varies… Sorry for being vague but it is what it is. Give me some zip codes to work with and I may be able to help. However even in those zips there will be super desired properties and super UNDESIRED places.

**********

I cannot tell you if renting fits your needs or not. That depends on you and your family. I think if it is ONLY financial waiting another few years may be advantageous.

[mercedes7]

Thanks SD realtor,

Actually the first 3 questions were rhetorical and I didn’t expect you to answer.

As for the last question related to price point and competition, you have a good point. I have been looking in 92120 (mostly Del Cerro), 92124, 92122, 92126 (certain areas), 92131, and 92129.

[mercedes7]

Thanks SD realtor,

Actually the first 3 questions were rhetorical and I didn’t expect you to answer.

As for the last question related to price point and competition, you have a good point. I have been looking in 92120 (mostly Del Cerro), 92124, 92122, 92126 (certain areas), 92131, and 92129.

[mercedes7]

Thanks SD realtor,

Actually the first 3 questions were rhetorical and I didn’t expect you to answer.

As for the last question related to price point and competition, you have a good point. I have been looking in 92120 (mostly Del Cerro), 92124, 92122, 92126 (certain areas), 92131, and 92129.

[mercedes7]

Thanks SD realtor,

Actually the first 3 questions were rhetorical and I didn’t expect you to answer.

As for the last question related to price point and competition, you have a good point. I have been looking in 92120 (mostly Del Cerro), 92124, 92122, 92126 (certain areas), 92131, and 92129.

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