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[sdrealtor]

CAR
I tried to bump the thread where I found our bet but it was actually on one of Rich’s articles. I gotta say that I’m feeling pretty darn solid on it now. Far more than when I made the bet if thats possible.

Here’s the linky:

Shambling Towards Affordability

sdr

[CA renter]

Just re-read the thread, and still looking forward to see who will win. 🙂

Tell me…who do you think would win if the govt had stayed out of everything — including the bank bailouts, TARP, loan guarantees, direct purchases of MBSs and Treasuries, $8,000 buyers’ credit, etc.?

No matter what, I am 100% behind the bet, and you can feel free to double-down if you’d like. 😉 We still have until Q3 of 2012.

[CA renter]

Just re-read the thread, and still looking forward to see who will win. 🙂

Tell me…who do you think would win if the govt had stayed out of everything — including the bank bailouts, TARP, loan guarantees, direct purchases of MBSs and Treasuries, $8,000 buyers’ credit, etc.?

No matter what, I am 100% behind the bet, and you can feel free to double-down if you’d like. 😉 We still have until Q3 of 2012.

[CA renter]

Just re-read the thread, and still looking forward to see who will win. 🙂

Tell me…who do you think would win if the govt had stayed out of everything — including the bank bailouts, TARP, loan guarantees, direct purchases of MBSs and Treasuries, $8,000 buyers’ credit, etc.?

No matter what, I am 100% behind the bet, and you can feel free to double-down if you’d like. 😉 We still have until Q3 of 2012.

[CA renter]

Just re-read the thread, and still looking forward to see who will win. 🙂

Tell me…who do you think would win if the govt had stayed out of everything — including the bank bailouts, TARP, loan guarantees, direct purchases of MBSs and Treasuries, $8,000 buyers’ credit, etc.?

No matter what, I am 100% behind the bet, and you can feel free to double-down if you’d like. 😉 We still have until Q3 of 2012.

[CA renter]

Just re-read the thread, and still looking forward to see who will win. 🙂

Tell me…who do you think would win if the govt had stayed out of everything — including the bank bailouts, TARP, loan guarantees, direct purchases of MBSs and Treasuries, $8,000 buyers’ credit, etc.?

No matter what, I am 100% behind the bet, and you can feel free to double-down if you’d like. 😉 We still have until Q3 of 2012.

[sdrealtor]

I think I would have won regardless. I also fully expected massive gov’t intervention. both Adam and I widely predicted it here last Fall. It is too easy to get sucked into the doom and gloom mentality. I have been doing some poking around on some of the markets i thought would get devastated and they dont look as bad as I would have guessed.

For example, I thought Bressi Ranch would get decimated. I just got a report of all the homes there and calculated what percentage of owners put down less than 20% on their homes and yes I checked to see if there were 2 loans on the properties. I figure anyone who put 20% down likely has more but put that down to get the best rate. I understand this isnt perfect but it’s a good swag number in my opinion. IMO opinion most of the folks that put down at least 20% should be OK. Some wont but some who put little down will be fine also.

There are about 500 homes in Bressi. How many do you think put down less than 20%?

I looked at LC Greens and it looked very similar and even stronger.

BTW, no way do we ever see nice 4BR+ 2600 to 2800 sq ft homes in LCV or Santa Fe Trails selling under $500K when people are killing each other to pay $325 to 350K for 1700 sq ft homes in oceanside. Aint gonna happen…no way….no how!

[sdrealtor]

I think I would have won regardless. I also fully expected massive gov’t intervention. both Adam and I widely predicted it here last Fall. It is too easy to get sucked into the doom and gloom mentality. I have been doing some poking around on some of the markets i thought would get devastated and they dont look as bad as I would have guessed.

For example, I thought Bressi Ranch would get decimated. I just got a report of all the homes there and calculated what percentage of owners put down less than 20% on their homes and yes I checked to see if there were 2 loans on the properties. I figure anyone who put 20% down likely has more but put that down to get the best rate. I understand this isnt perfect but it’s a good swag number in my opinion. IMO opinion most of the folks that put down at least 20% should be OK. Some wont but some who put little down will be fine also.

There are about 500 homes in Bressi. How many do you think put down less than 20%?

I looked at LC Greens and it looked very similar and even stronger.

BTW, no way do we ever see nice 4BR+ 2600 to 2800 sq ft homes in LCV or Santa Fe Trails selling under $500K when people are killing each other to pay $325 to 350K for 1700 sq ft homes in oceanside. Aint gonna happen…no way….no how!

[sdrealtor]

I think I would have won regardless. I also fully expected massive gov’t intervention. both Adam and I widely predicted it here last Fall. It is too easy to get sucked into the doom and gloom mentality. I have been doing some poking around on some of the markets i thought would get devastated and they dont look as bad as I would have guessed.

For example, I thought Bressi Ranch would get decimated. I just got a report of all the homes there and calculated what percentage of owners put down less than 20% on their homes and yes I checked to see if there were 2 loans on the properties. I figure anyone who put 20% down likely has more but put that down to get the best rate. I understand this isnt perfect but it’s a good swag number in my opinion. IMO opinion most of the folks that put down at least 20% should be OK. Some wont but some who put little down will be fine also.

There are about 500 homes in Bressi. How many do you think put down less than 20%?

I looked at LC Greens and it looked very similar and even stronger.

BTW, no way do we ever see nice 4BR+ 2600 to 2800 sq ft homes in LCV or Santa Fe Trails selling under $500K when people are killing each other to pay $325 to 350K for 1700 sq ft homes in oceanside. Aint gonna happen…no way….no how!

[sdrealtor]

I think I would have won regardless. I also fully expected massive gov’t intervention. both Adam and I widely predicted it here last Fall. It is too easy to get sucked into the doom and gloom mentality. I have been doing some poking around on some of the markets i thought would get devastated and they dont look as bad as I would have guessed.

For example, I thought Bressi Ranch would get decimated. I just got a report of all the homes there and calculated what percentage of owners put down less than 20% on their homes and yes I checked to see if there were 2 loans on the properties. I figure anyone who put 20% down likely has more but put that down to get the best rate. I understand this isnt perfect but it’s a good swag number in my opinion. IMO opinion most of the folks that put down at least 20% should be OK. Some wont but some who put little down will be fine also.

There are about 500 homes in Bressi. How many do you think put down less than 20%?

I looked at LC Greens and it looked very similar and even stronger.

BTW, no way do we ever see nice 4BR+ 2600 to 2800 sq ft homes in LCV or Santa Fe Trails selling under $500K when people are killing each other to pay $325 to 350K for 1700 sq ft homes in oceanside. Aint gonna happen…no way….no how!

[sdrealtor]

I think I would have won regardless. I also fully expected massive gov’t intervention. both Adam and I widely predicted it here last Fall. It is too easy to get sucked into the doom and gloom mentality. I have been doing some poking around on some of the markets i thought would get devastated and they dont look as bad as I would have guessed.

For example, I thought Bressi Ranch would get decimated. I just got a report of all the homes there and calculated what percentage of owners put down less than 20% on their homes and yes I checked to see if there were 2 loans on the properties. I figure anyone who put 20% down likely has more but put that down to get the best rate. I understand this isnt perfect but it’s a good swag number in my opinion. IMO opinion most of the folks that put down at least 20% should be OK. Some wont but some who put little down will be fine also.

There are about 500 homes in Bressi. How many do you think put down less than 20%?

I looked at LC Greens and it looked very similar and even stronger.

BTW, no way do we ever see nice 4BR+ 2600 to 2800 sq ft homes in LCV or Santa Fe Trails selling under $500K when people are killing each other to pay $325 to 350K for 1700 sq ft homes in oceanside. Aint gonna happen…no way….no how!

[CA renter]

I’ve been saying for **years** that the govt would try to intervene via the GSEs and FHA, along with massive loan mods — including principal write-downs. I even suggested principal write-downs at a Community Reinvestment Task Force meeting last year, and also recommended it in letters, faxes and phone calls to multiple representatives, the White House, the Fed and Treasury, along with other regulatory agencies — but recommended the “written-off” portion be split into a non-recourse loan that could be sold on the secondary market and would accrue interest, and be due upon sale. Also said that any deferred amount would have to somehow be reflected in public records since the original sale price was not valid (could never be paid off by the borrower w/o appreciation).

I also said that these measures would **prolong** the recession/depression, not get us out of it. It remains to be seen if that prediction is correct.

We have a few more years to go…

[CA renter]

I’ve been saying for **years** that the govt would try to intervene via the GSEs and FHA, along with massive loan mods — including principal write-downs. I even suggested principal write-downs at a Community Reinvestment Task Force meeting last year, and also recommended it in letters, faxes and phone calls to multiple representatives, the White House, the Fed and Treasury, along with other regulatory agencies — but recommended the “written-off” portion be split into a non-recourse loan that could be sold on the secondary market and would accrue interest, and be due upon sale. Also said that any deferred amount would have to somehow be reflected in public records since the original sale price was not valid (could never be paid off by the borrower w/o appreciation).

I also said that these measures would **prolong** the recession/depression, not get us out of it. It remains to be seen if that prediction is correct.

We have a few more years to go…

[CA renter]

I’ve been saying for **years** that the govt would try to intervene via the GSEs and FHA, along with massive loan mods — including principal write-downs. I even suggested principal write-downs at a Community Reinvestment Task Force meeting last year, and also recommended it in letters, faxes and phone calls to multiple representatives, the White House, the Fed and Treasury, along with other regulatory agencies — but recommended the “written-off” portion be split into a non-recourse loan that could be sold on the secondary market and would accrue interest, and be due upon sale. Also said that any deferred amount would have to somehow be reflected in public records since the original sale price was not valid (could never be paid off by the borrower w/o appreciation).

I also said that these measures would **prolong** the recession/depression, not get us out of it. It remains to be seen if that prediction is correct.

We have a few more years to go…

[CA renter]

I’ve been saying for **years** that the govt would try to intervene via the GSEs and FHA, along with massive loan mods — including principal write-downs. I even suggested principal write-downs at a Community Reinvestment Task Force meeting last year, and also recommended it in letters, faxes and phone calls to multiple representatives, the White House, the Fed and Treasury, along with other regulatory agencies — but recommended the “written-off” portion be split into a non-recourse loan that could be sold on the secondary market and would accrue interest, and be due upon sale. Also said that any deferred amount would have to somehow be reflected in public records since the original sale price was not valid (could never be paid off by the borrower w/o appreciation).

I also said that these measures would **prolong** the recession/depression, not get us out of it. It remains to be seen if that prediction is correct.

We have a few more years to go…

[Author]

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