absolute lack of investing confidence…

[scaredyclassic]

so as i was farting around over the weekend, reading about the ukraine, I thought, i really should short russia or buy gold stocks, just for the day of Monday. The risk seemed pretty low to me. But I said to myself, naah, you’re always wrong about everything.

RUSS (leveraged short russia) up 20% for the day. Gold spiked.

Of course.

it was kind of a no brainer. But I’ve completely persuaded myself I know nothing.

is this post the opposite of bragging about investing wins?

[Coronita]

I think I’m going to try to brag more about how much I suck. Maybe if I do that, it might actually be contrarian to what actually happens. So far, the other way around definitely seems to be contrarian for me..

[paramount]

To be honest flu, thanks to you I’ve done very well with phot. Thanks.

[Coronita]

[quote=paramount]To be honest flu, thanks to you I’ve done very well with phot. Thanks.[/quote]

Did you not listen to me and decide to short it ? Lol

[an]

[quote=flu][quote=paramount]To be honest flu, thanks to you I’ve done very well with phot. Thanks.[/quote]

Did you not listen to me and decide to short it ? Lol[/quote]
I too benefit greatly from PHOT. Thanks flu

[CA renter]

This is a very scary time to try to navigate the investment world, IMHO. Even holding dollars is scary. 🙁

[Coronita]

[quote=AN][quote=flu][quote=paramount]To be honest flu, thanks to you I’ve done very well with phot. Thanks.[/quote]

Did you not listen to me and decide to short it ? Lol[/quote]
I too benefit greatly from PHOT. Thanks flu[/quote]

So you shorted it too? 🙂

[earlyretirement]

[quote=CA renter]This is a very scary time to try to navigate the investment world, IMHO. Even holding dollars is scary. :([/quote]

I totally agree with you CAR. Everyone trying to chase yield. The “poor” savers (no pun intended) are getting pummeled as interest rates are so low. So they too feel like they have to get into higher risk type investments.

I was just talking about this with someone the other day at lunch. The problem is that everyone says they are “long-term investors” but relatively few are and they look at the market the past few years and what a tear it’s been on and they feel like they are missing out.

Like some, I haven’t gotten in the stock market as heavy as I wish I did watching the way it’s gone on a tear.

It will be interesting to see how things turn out in the mid-term.

[creechrr]

[quote=flu][quote=paramount]To be honest flu, thanks to you I’ve done very well with phot. Thanks.[/quote]

Did you not listen to me and decide to short it ? Lol[/quote]

Me too…

Thanks.

[an]

[quote=flu][quote=AN][quote=flu][quote=paramount]To be honest flu, thanks to you I’ve done very well with phot. Thanks.[/quote]

Did you not listen to me and decide to short it ? Lol[/quote]
I too benefit greatly from PHOT. Thanks flu[/quote]

So you shorted it too? :)[/quote]Thank goodness I didn’t :-D.

[flyer]

It’s a good thing you’re being cautious now, scaredy.

The only place we’re making a killing these days is with very selective private film investments via friends. The “market” has been great to us over the years, but, for now, we’re pretty much out.

[joec]

My word of advice for everyone is less is more…

This means that trying to block out all the financial and political and world media would be a big benefit to your investment performance.

Having worked in the financial industry in the past, it is very unlikely you will be able to time anything well, especially when the game is stacked against all everyday investors.

More often than not, you will see a “report” on a news channel or some “guru” saying this Russia problem will cause massive problems that you get out or get in at the worst possible time. Bottom line is most investors have no clue how to value companies so hearing and reading these articles and reports which tends to sensationalize everything will only hurt you.

That said, I’ve “heard” that Russia does about 1% trade with the US. That’s pretty much nothing and this is also why the US can’t do a thing to Russia about the issue. Europe is MUCH more connected since they depend on the energy from Russia. They are also LESS interested in pissing off Putin so this is also why no one thinks anything will come of this and no force will occur.

Again, you could have some crazed people do something, but again, nothing could happen also so why gamble on what you have no control over or speculate on this happening on that?

At times, I see one report (like yesterday) and human nature tells me that I should sell (thinking of dumping my FB which has doubled). Then today, it’s all up and up again…damn, nasdaq up 1.75% today.

This is why most investors sell at the worst possible times. I think most people would be better off just having a holding of most everything and if the shit hits the fan, those utilities and “safer” companies that pay you a nice 4% dividend will keep you well covered if you needed some income.

If you need the money soon, you shouldn’t be in stocks at all to begin with.

I’m still waiting for some pullback since there hasn’t been many over the past 5 years and we had to get out due to a personal financial issue, but no rushing in or out either way 100% since that’s just usually not going to work out well for you.

[spdrun]

Personally, I hope the good times last another month or two, so as not to give the crims at the Fed any excuse to delay tapering. I figure they can pawn off bad economic data as being winter weather-related for another two months, which takes us through the April meeting and down to $45bln/yr. If they keep the tapering up, maybe it will be enough to slow things down and start a down-cycle.

And besides, I need AAL to hold above 30 or so till early April, so I get a good exchange of old AAMRQ shares at the 90 and 120 day marks. Keeping AAMRQ (bought at 3.mumble in August 2013) past the merger date has been an awesome decision thus far.

[scaredyclassic]

my main investmentsare going to be stuff I think is undervalued that i find at yard sales/ebay and hold. For instance, I found two japanese fishing lures new in package, purchased for about a buck. They go for about 50.00 each on ebay. I plan to hold for 10years. who’s to say what the top of the japanese fishing lure market wil be? I couldn’t even begin to say. I intend to buy hard goods i think have potential, put them in a box, and hold them until 2025. that’s my plan. that and 10,000 mercury dimes in a bank safe deposit box.

[CA renter]

You’ll probably do better than the rest of us, scaredy. 🙂

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