Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › 3rd day of stock losses
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November 12, 2008 at 3:41 PM #303346November 12, 2008 at 4:52 PM #303355
DWCAP
ParticipantPersonally I think the DOW has as much to do with Obama being elected as oil did with peak oil this past summer.
In a long term sense both are related to their counterpart. Peak oil will drive the price of oil up and up, until other sources of energy become dominate or the economic system that is reliant on oil breaks down. But in the short run, there is plenty of oil available to meet December 2008’s demand levels, and demand is falling, so the price of oil is also falling.
The markets generally dont like uncertainty and they dont like regulation/taxes. Obama is currently bringing both as no one really knows the details of his future policies, and they are pretty sure there will be more regulation and taxes. (This may not end up to be a bad thing, who knows? Perhaps the hype is justified) But the current distruptions in the market place are much more related to the fact that there isnt enough liquidity in the market place and consumption is falling leading to job layoffs, which lower consumption, which lead to more companies going under wipeing out stock equity, which leads to more job losses……… etc etc
THe Dow is reacting to short term information, and as much as the Media and all of us like to relate everything to Obama, he is still long term news.
November 12, 2008 at 4:52 PM #303802ParticipantPersonally I think the DOW has as much to do with Obama being elected as oil did with peak oil this past summer.
In a long term sense both are related to their counterpart. Peak oil will drive the price of oil up and up, until other sources of energy become dominate or the economic system that is reliant on oil breaks down. But in the short run, there is plenty of oil available to meet December 2008’s demand levels, and demand is falling, so the price of oil is also falling.
The markets generally dont like uncertainty and they dont like regulation/taxes. Obama is currently bringing both as no one really knows the details of his future policies, and they are pretty sure there will be more regulation and taxes. (This may not end up to be a bad thing, who knows? Perhaps the hype is justified) But the current distruptions in the market place are much more related to the fact that there isnt enough liquidity in the market place and consumption is falling leading to job layoffs, which lower consumption, which lead to more companies going under wipeing out stock equity, which leads to more job losses……… etc etc
THe Dow is reacting to short term information, and as much as the Media and all of us like to relate everything to Obama, he is still long term news.
November 12, 2008 at 4:52 PM #303746ParticipantPersonally I think the DOW has as much to do with Obama being elected as oil did with peak oil this past summer.
In a long term sense both are related to their counterpart. Peak oil will drive the price of oil up and up, until other sources of energy become dominate or the economic system that is reliant on oil breaks down. But in the short run, there is plenty of oil available to meet December 2008’s demand levels, and demand is falling, so the price of oil is also falling.
The markets generally dont like uncertainty and they dont like regulation/taxes. Obama is currently bringing both as no one really knows the details of his future policies, and they are pretty sure there will be more regulation and taxes. (This may not end up to be a bad thing, who knows? Perhaps the hype is justified) But the current distruptions in the market place are much more related to the fact that there isnt enough liquidity in the market place and consumption is falling leading to job layoffs, which lower consumption, which lead to more companies going under wipeing out stock equity, which leads to more job losses……… etc etc
THe Dow is reacting to short term information, and as much as the Media and all of us like to relate everything to Obama, he is still long term news.
November 12, 2008 at 4:52 PM #303729ParticipantPersonally I think the DOW has as much to do with Obama being elected as oil did with peak oil this past summer.
In a long term sense both are related to their counterpart. Peak oil will drive the price of oil up and up, until other sources of energy become dominate or the economic system that is reliant on oil breaks down. But in the short run, there is plenty of oil available to meet December 2008’s demand levels, and demand is falling, so the price of oil is also falling.
The markets generally dont like uncertainty and they dont like regulation/taxes. Obama is currently bringing both as no one really knows the details of his future policies, and they are pretty sure there will be more regulation and taxes. (This may not end up to be a bad thing, who knows? Perhaps the hype is justified) But the current distruptions in the market place are much more related to the fact that there isnt enough liquidity in the market place and consumption is falling leading to job layoffs, which lower consumption, which lead to more companies going under wipeing out stock equity, which leads to more job losses……… etc etc
THe Dow is reacting to short term information, and as much as the Media and all of us like to relate everything to Obama, he is still long term news.
November 12, 2008 at 4:52 PM #303718ParticipantPersonally I think the DOW has as much to do with Obama being elected as oil did with peak oil this past summer.
In a long term sense both are related to their counterpart. Peak oil will drive the price of oil up and up, until other sources of energy become dominate or the economic system that is reliant on oil breaks down. But in the short run, there is plenty of oil available to meet December 2008’s demand levels, and demand is falling, so the price of oil is also falling.
The markets generally dont like uncertainty and they dont like regulation/taxes. Obama is currently bringing both as no one really knows the details of his future policies, and they are pretty sure there will be more regulation and taxes. (This may not end up to be a bad thing, who knows? Perhaps the hype is justified) But the current distruptions in the market place are much more related to the fact that there isnt enough liquidity in the market place and consumption is falling leading to job layoffs, which lower consumption, which lead to more companies going under wipeing out stock equity, which leads to more job losses……… etc etc
THe Dow is reacting to short term information, and as much as the Media and all of us like to relate everything to Obama, he is still long term news.
November 12, 2008 at 5:17 PM #303738Eugene
ParticipantObama was elected because of the drop in the DOW, not vice versa.
Markets don’t care much about the resident of the White House. They don’t like recessions and they don’t like bad macro news, such as collapsing manufacturing and retail. All else equal, markets prefer regulation to depression, bailouts to letting megaplayers fail, rising government spending to contracting consumer spending.
For the last few months, it’s been nothing but bad macro. Things are looking quite bleak. Obama will likely be positive for the stock market when he actually takes office – but that won’t happen for another two months.
November 12, 2008 at 5:17 PM #303749ParticipantObama was elected because of the drop in the DOW, not vice versa.
Markets don’t care much about the resident of the White House. They don’t like recessions and they don’t like bad macro news, such as collapsing manufacturing and retail. All else equal, markets prefer regulation to depression, bailouts to letting megaplayers fail, rising government spending to contracting consumer spending.
For the last few months, it’s been nothing but bad macro. Things are looking quite bleak. Obama will likely be positive for the stock market when he actually takes office – but that won’t happen for another two months.
November 12, 2008 at 5:17 PM #303822ParticipantObama was elected because of the drop in the DOW, not vice versa.
Markets don’t care much about the resident of the White House. They don’t like recessions and they don’t like bad macro news, such as collapsing manufacturing and retail. All else equal, markets prefer regulation to depression, bailouts to letting megaplayers fail, rising government spending to contracting consumer spending.
For the last few months, it’s been nothing but bad macro. Things are looking quite bleak. Obama will likely be positive for the stock market when he actually takes office – but that won’t happen for another two months.
November 12, 2008 at 5:17 PM #303375ParticipantObama was elected because of the drop in the DOW, not vice versa.
Markets don’t care much about the resident of the White House. They don’t like recessions and they don’t like bad macro news, such as collapsing manufacturing and retail. All else equal, markets prefer regulation to depression, bailouts to letting megaplayers fail, rising government spending to contracting consumer spending.
For the last few months, it’s been nothing but bad macro. Things are looking quite bleak. Obama will likely be positive for the stock market when he actually takes office – but that won’t happen for another two months.
November 12, 2008 at 5:17 PM #303766ParticipantObama was elected because of the drop in the DOW, not vice versa.
Markets don’t care much about the resident of the White House. They don’t like recessions and they don’t like bad macro news, such as collapsing manufacturing and retail. All else equal, markets prefer regulation to depression, bailouts to letting megaplayers fail, rising government spending to contracting consumer spending.
For the last few months, it’s been nothing but bad macro. Things are looking quite bleak. Obama will likely be positive for the stock market when he actually takes office – but that won’t happen for another two months.
November 12, 2008 at 5:30 PM #303827(former)FormerSanDiegan
Participant[quote=arraya][quote=Butleroftwo]Small percentage of US home loans given to fraudulent purchasers, sometimes referred to as the sub-prime mess.[/quote]
Ok, first you gotta lay off the Rush and Hannity, it’ll rot your brain. Second if an entire global economy can be taken down from a small percentage of home buyers defaulting, there is something wrong with the model.
This is much bigger than that.
[/quote]
I agree with the brain rot comment.
However, I would submit that a small fraction (well less than 10%) of homeowners have defaulted on their loans thus far AND the result is that the entire economy is sucking wind because of it.
November 12, 2008 at 5:30 PM #303771Participant[quote=arraya][quote=Butleroftwo]Small percentage of US home loans given to fraudulent purchasers, sometimes referred to as the sub-prime mess.[/quote]
Ok, first you gotta lay off the Rush and Hannity, it’ll rot your brain. Second if an entire global economy can be taken down from a small percentage of home buyers defaulting, there is something wrong with the model.
This is much bigger than that.
[/quote]
I agree with the brain rot comment.
However, I would submit that a small fraction (well less than 10%) of homeowners have defaulted on their loans thus far AND the result is that the entire economy is sucking wind because of it.
November 12, 2008 at 5:30 PM #303754Participant[quote=arraya][quote=Butleroftwo]Small percentage of US home loans given to fraudulent purchasers, sometimes referred to as the sub-prime mess.[/quote]
Ok, first you gotta lay off the Rush and Hannity, it’ll rot your brain. Second if an entire global economy can be taken down from a small percentage of home buyers defaulting, there is something wrong with the model.
This is much bigger than that.
[/quote]
I agree with the brain rot comment.
However, I would submit that a small fraction (well less than 10%) of homeowners have defaulted on their loans thus far AND the result is that the entire economy is sucking wind because of it.
November 12, 2008 at 5:30 PM #303743Participant[quote=arraya][quote=Butleroftwo]Small percentage of US home loans given to fraudulent purchasers, sometimes referred to as the sub-prime mess.[/quote]
Ok, first you gotta lay off the Rush and Hannity, it’ll rot your brain. Second if an entire global economy can be taken down from a small percentage of home buyers defaulting, there is something wrong with the model.
This is much bigger than that.
[/quote]
I agree with the brain rot comment.
However, I would submit that a small fraction (well less than 10%) of homeowners have defaulted on their loans thus far AND the result is that the entire economy is sucking wind because of it.
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