20% Unemployment in CA counties

[CA renter]

Unfortunately, I don’t know a single person who feels secure in his/her job right now, and that certainly includes public sector workers (who are described as having “recession-proof” jobs).

We know lots of people who have been unemployed over the past two years, and even if they find new employment, it’s always been for lower pay, and there is NO job security.

This is exactly why I think the current housing market is not based on fundamentals at all.

Oh, and we’ve just heard about another person who hasn’t made a mortgage payment in months, but still has yet to receive a NOD.

[Eugene]

[quote=ybitz]is there a historical correlation between unemployment rate and home prices? Logic tells me yes (high employment -> lower home prices), but as we’ve seen over the last year or so there are more factors at work than logic. Has Rich done a hard number analysis on this before? Love his graphs :)[/quote]

The effect may not be as strong as you think.

Homeowners are usually more educated than renters. I’m not going to argue that it’s not tough out there for college educated folks, but hard numbers suggest that this recession has disproportionately hit people with only a school diploma (or even without one). Last I checked, the nationwide unemployment rate for people with bachelors’ degrees was still in 4.7-4.9% range.

A good swath of the currently unemployed 11% in the county wouldn’t be owning homes even if the economy were in excellent shape.

It could be the case that high unemployment depresses rents in places where you don’t want to live anyway (e.g. Logan Heights) and where most home sales are normally to investors (the subprime period of 2000-2007 excluded).

[Eugene]

[quote=ybitz]is there a historical correlation between unemployment rate and home prices? Logic tells me yes (high employment -> lower home prices), but as we’ve seen over the last year or so there are more factors at work than logic. Has Rich done a hard number analysis on this before? Love his graphs :)[/quote]

The effect may not be as strong as you think.

Homeowners are usually more educated than renters. I’m not going to argue that it’s not tough out there for college educated folks, but hard numbers suggest that this recession has disproportionately hit people with only a school diploma (or even without one). Last I checked, the nationwide unemployment rate for people with bachelors’ degrees was still in 4.7-4.9% range.

A good swath of the currently unemployed 11% in the county wouldn’t be owning homes even if the economy were in excellent shape.

It could be the case that high unemployment depresses rents in places where you don’t want to live anyway (e.g. Logan Heights) and where most home sales are normally to investors (the subprime period of 2000-2007 excluded).

[Eugene]

[quote=ybitz]is there a historical correlation between unemployment rate and home prices? Logic tells me yes (high employment -> lower home prices), but as we’ve seen over the last year or so there are more factors at work than logic. Has Rich done a hard number analysis on this before? Love his graphs :)[/quote]

The effect may not be as strong as you think.

Homeowners are usually more educated than renters. I’m not going to argue that it’s not tough out there for college educated folks, but hard numbers suggest that this recession has disproportionately hit people with only a school diploma (or even without one). Last I checked, the nationwide unemployment rate for people with bachelors’ degrees was still in 4.7-4.9% range.

A good swath of the currently unemployed 11% in the county wouldn’t be owning homes even if the economy were in excellent shape.

It could be the case that high unemployment depresses rents in places where you don’t want to live anyway (e.g. Logan Heights) and where most home sales are normally to investors (the subprime period of 2000-2007 excluded).

[Eugene]

[quote=ybitz]is there a historical correlation between unemployment rate and home prices? Logic tells me yes (high employment -> lower home prices), but as we’ve seen over the last year or so there are more factors at work than logic. Has Rich done a hard number analysis on this before? Love his graphs :)[/quote]

The effect may not be as strong as you think.

Homeowners are usually more educated than renters. I’m not going to argue that it’s not tough out there for college educated folks, but hard numbers suggest that this recession has disproportionately hit people with only a school diploma (or even without one). Last I checked, the nationwide unemployment rate for people with bachelors’ degrees was still in 4.7-4.9% range.

A good swath of the currently unemployed 11% in the county wouldn’t be owning homes even if the economy were in excellent shape.

It could be the case that high unemployment depresses rents in places where you don’t want to live anyway (e.g. Logan Heights) and where most home sales are normally to investors (the subprime period of 2000-2007 excluded).

[Eugene]

[quote=ybitz]is there a historical correlation between unemployment rate and home prices? Logic tells me yes (high employment -> lower home prices), but as we’ve seen over the last year or so there are more factors at work than logic. Has Rich done a hard number analysis on this before? Love his graphs :)[/quote]

The effect may not be as strong as you think.

Homeowners are usually more educated than renters. I’m not going to argue that it’s not tough out there for college educated folks, but hard numbers suggest that this recession has disproportionately hit people with only a school diploma (or even without one). Last I checked, the nationwide unemployment rate for people with bachelors’ degrees was still in 4.7-4.9% range.

A good swath of the currently unemployed 11% in the county wouldn’t be owning homes even if the economy were in excellent shape.

It could be the case that high unemployment depresses rents in places where you don’t want to live anyway (e.g. Logan Heights) and where most home sales are normally to investors (the subprime period of 2000-2007 excluded).

[pencilneck]

Link to article “Unemployment Rate and Level of Education” at Calculated Risk. Contains chart similar or identical to the one Eugene mentioned:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/unemployment-rate-and-level-of.html

You make an interesting point Eugene and I don’t completely disagree. However, unemployment among the college educated has gone from ~2% to ~5% in a very short period of time.

In the past few years the unemployment rate has doubled for most segments on this chart. For college educated, the unemployment rate has more than doubled. Interesting.

[pencilneck]

Link to article “Unemployment Rate and Level of Education” at Calculated Risk. Contains chart similar or identical to the one Eugene mentioned:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/unemployment-rate-and-level-of.html

You make an interesting point Eugene and I don’t completely disagree. However, unemployment among the college educated has gone from ~2% to ~5% in a very short period of time.

In the past few years the unemployment rate has doubled for most segments on this chart. For college educated, the unemployment rate has more than doubled. Interesting.

[pencilneck]

Link to article “Unemployment Rate and Level of Education” at Calculated Risk. Contains chart similar or identical to the one Eugene mentioned:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/unemployment-rate-and-level-of.html

You make an interesting point Eugene and I don’t completely disagree. However, unemployment among the college educated has gone from ~2% to ~5% in a very short period of time.

In the past few years the unemployment rate has doubled for most segments on this chart. For college educated, the unemployment rate has more than doubled. Interesting.

[pencilneck]

Link to article “Unemployment Rate and Level of Education” at Calculated Risk. Contains chart similar or identical to the one Eugene mentioned:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/unemployment-rate-and-level-of.html

You make an interesting point Eugene and I don’t completely disagree. However, unemployment among the college educated has gone from ~2% to ~5% in a very short period of time.

In the past few years the unemployment rate has doubled for most segments on this chart. For college educated, the unemployment rate has more than doubled. Interesting.

[pencilneck]

Link to article “Unemployment Rate and Level of Education” at Calculated Risk. Contains chart similar or identical to the one Eugene mentioned:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/unemployment-rate-and-level-of.html

You make an interesting point Eugene and I don’t completely disagree. However, unemployment among the college educated has gone from ~2% to ~5% in a very short period of time.

In the past few years the unemployment rate has doubled for most segments on this chart. For college educated, the unemployment rate has more than doubled. Interesting.

[svelte]

[quote=CONCHO]There are decent-looking people living in tents all over downtown now. It used to just be hardcore wastoids, addicts, and freaks, now there are a lot of people that look pretty normal. All ages too from 20s on up. I have even seen children. Drive past the library downtown sometime. There are also a lot of them east of park blvd. downtown.[/quote]

We took some friends from out of town to Seaport Village a few weekends ago…parked by Office Depot or whatever it is. Decent area, clean, wide sidewalks.

When we came back by about 4 PM, the whole area was filled with tents and homeless! There were a few dozen that we had to weave through to return to the car! Not just men…men, women and a couple of kids. They spoke with us and were jovial, but it was indeed a sad sight.

I hope things turn around soon. Best wishes to your friends, UCGal.

[svelte]

[quote=CONCHO]There are decent-looking people living in tents all over downtown now. It used to just be hardcore wastoids, addicts, and freaks, now there are a lot of people that look pretty normal. All ages too from 20s on up. I have even seen children. Drive past the library downtown sometime. There are also a lot of them east of park blvd. downtown.[/quote]

We took some friends from out of town to Seaport Village a few weekends ago…parked by Office Depot or whatever it is. Decent area, clean, wide sidewalks.

When we came back by about 4 PM, the whole area was filled with tents and homeless! There were a few dozen that we had to weave through to return to the car! Not just men…men, women and a couple of kids. They spoke with us and were jovial, but it was indeed a sad sight.

I hope things turn around soon. Best wishes to your friends, UCGal.

[svelte]

[quote=CONCHO]There are decent-looking people living in tents all over downtown now. It used to just be hardcore wastoids, addicts, and freaks, now there are a lot of people that look pretty normal. All ages too from 20s on up. I have even seen children. Drive past the library downtown sometime. There are also a lot of them east of park blvd. downtown.[/quote]

We took some friends from out of town to Seaport Village a few weekends ago…parked by Office Depot or whatever it is. Decent area, clean, wide sidewalks.

When we came back by about 4 PM, the whole area was filled with tents and homeless! There were a few dozen that we had to weave through to return to the car! Not just men…men, women and a couple of kids. They spoke with us and were jovial, but it was indeed a sad sight.

I hope things turn around soon. Best wishes to your friends, UCGal.

[svelte]

[quote=CONCHO]There are decent-looking people living in tents all over downtown now. It used to just be hardcore wastoids, addicts, and freaks, now there are a lot of people that look pretty normal. All ages too from 20s on up. I have even seen children. Drive past the library downtown sometime. There are also a lot of them east of park blvd. downtown.[/quote]

We took some friends from out of town to Seaport Village a few weekends ago…parked by Office Depot or whatever it is. Decent area, clean, wide sidewalks.

When we came back by about 4 PM, the whole area was filled with tents and homeless! There were a few dozen that we had to weave through to return to the car! Not just men…men, women and a couple of kids. They spoke with us and were jovial, but it was indeed a sad sight.

I hope things turn around soon. Best wishes to your friends, UCGal.

[Author]

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