2009 Conforming Loan Limits Jump

[macromaniac]

SD,

Here are the answers…

1) Go and look at those charts and see the flattening of home prices in the mid 90’s that went on for around a year and a half. The bottom is recognizable and doesn’t happen in a month and then head back to the moon again….

2) A bottom can be predicated when certain fundamentals come into line here. That is if the fundamentals don’t change in regards to lending standards again (sleazy credit)

3) I don’t see the correlation of these 3 tier’s aligning to signal a bottom. They have nothing to do with a potential bottom.

Do you know how many La Jollians are taking loans out against their 401K’s right now to pay their alligators? ALOT.

[jpinpb]

mm – sdr already clarified that the charts are worthless b/c idiot realtors provided the data.

Fortunately, I am capable of also doing my own homework by monitoring the areas that are of interest to me.

But the tiers in line mean nothing, b/c they flatlined together for a while during the ’90’s.

[jpinpb]

mm – sdr already clarified that the charts are worthless b/c idiot realtors provided the data.

Fortunately, I am capable of also doing my own homework by monitoring the areas that are of interest to me.

But the tiers in line mean nothing, b/c they flatlined together for a while during the ’90’s.

[jpinpb]

mm – sdr already clarified that the charts are worthless b/c idiot realtors provided the data.

Fortunately, I am capable of also doing my own homework by monitoring the areas that are of interest to me.

But the tiers in line mean nothing, b/c they flatlined together for a while during the ’90’s.

[jpinpb]

mm – sdr already clarified that the charts are worthless b/c idiot realtors provided the data.

Fortunately, I am capable of also doing my own homework by monitoring the areas that are of interest to me.

But the tiers in line mean nothing, b/c they flatlined together for a while during the ’90’s.

[jpinpb]

mm – sdr already clarified that the charts are worthless b/c idiot realtors provided the data.

Fortunately, I am capable of also doing my own homework by monitoring the areas that are of interest to me.

But the tiers in line mean nothing, b/c they flatlined together for a while during the ’90’s.

[cr]

[quote=sdrealtor]It wont turn things around but it will extend your aggravating wait another day creating another chance for inflation or the next herois attempt at a bailout. The fact that other things might offs[/quote]

Fair enough. Maybe I misunderstood you, b/c I mostly agree.

However my aggravating wait will only cause prices to fall further, because any floor they establish will be temporary given the reasons I listed.

Our gov’t prefers people drowning in mortgage debt. Bailouts may help some of the measely 5% of homeowners in default but they alienate future buyers who are among the 35% of the population that rents.

On another note re: w/ the high end starting to crack, foreclosures should increase and start moving.

That will drive the median price up, but it will be deceptive, for all the reasons median is a useless indicator.

A bunch of houses selling at $500k will do that, but if they all sold for $1MM at peak, good news it isn’t.

[cr]

[quote=sdrealtor]It wont turn things around but it will extend your aggravating wait another day creating another chance for inflation or the next herois attempt at a bailout. The fact that other things might offs[/quote]

Fair enough. Maybe I misunderstood you, b/c I mostly agree.

However my aggravating wait will only cause prices to fall further, because any floor they establish will be temporary given the reasons I listed.

Our gov’t prefers people drowning in mortgage debt. Bailouts may help some of the measely 5% of homeowners in default but they alienate future buyers who are among the 35% of the population that rents.

On another note re: w/ the high end starting to crack, foreclosures should increase and start moving.

That will drive the median price up, but it will be deceptive, for all the reasons median is a useless indicator.

A bunch of houses selling at $500k will do that, but if they all sold for $1MM at peak, good news it isn’t.

[cr]

[quote=sdrealtor]It wont turn things around but it will extend your aggravating wait another day creating another chance for inflation or the next herois attempt at a bailout. The fact that other things might offs[/quote]

Fair enough. Maybe I misunderstood you, b/c I mostly agree.

However my aggravating wait will only cause prices to fall further, because any floor they establish will be temporary given the reasons I listed.

Our gov’t prefers people drowning in mortgage debt. Bailouts may help some of the measely 5% of homeowners in default but they alienate future buyers who are among the 35% of the population that rents.

On another note re: w/ the high end starting to crack, foreclosures should increase and start moving.

That will drive the median price up, but it will be deceptive, for all the reasons median is a useless indicator.

A bunch of houses selling at $500k will do that, but if they all sold for $1MM at peak, good news it isn’t.

[cr]

[quote=sdrealtor]It wont turn things around but it will extend your aggravating wait another day creating another chance for inflation or the next herois attempt at a bailout. The fact that other things might offs[/quote]

Fair enough. Maybe I misunderstood you, b/c I mostly agree.

However my aggravating wait will only cause prices to fall further, because any floor they establish will be temporary given the reasons I listed.

Our gov’t prefers people drowning in mortgage debt. Bailouts may help some of the measely 5% of homeowners in default but they alienate future buyers who are among the 35% of the population that rents.

On another note re: w/ the high end starting to crack, foreclosures should increase and start moving.

That will drive the median price up, but it will be deceptive, for all the reasons median is a useless indicator.

A bunch of houses selling at $500k will do that, but if they all sold for $1MM at peak, good news it isn’t.

[cr]

[quote=sdrealtor]It wont turn things around but it will extend your aggravating wait another day creating another chance for inflation or the next herois attempt at a bailout. The fact that other things might offs[/quote]

Fair enough. Maybe I misunderstood you, b/c I mostly agree.

However my aggravating wait will only cause prices to fall further, because any floor they establish will be temporary given the reasons I listed.

Our gov’t prefers people drowning in mortgage debt. Bailouts may help some of the measely 5% of homeowners in default but they alienate future buyers who are among the 35% of the population that rents.

On another note re: w/ the high end starting to crack, foreclosures should increase and start moving.

That will drive the median price up, but it will be deceptive, for all the reasons median is a useless indicator.

A bunch of houses selling at $500k will do that, but if they all sold for $1MM at peak, good news it isn’t.

[sdrealtor]

The problem about looking at a graph for a bottom is that it can be different everywhere. The bottom in Mira Mesa may not be the same time as Carmel valley’s. The other problem is that the bottom is a time when someone buys a certain house at a certain price and that may or may not be you.

One of my clients is the fiercest bear I know. Far more negative than any of you. Nonethelesss we go out from time to time to look at houses. In over 2 years, he has not found a single home he liked enough to buy whether it was priced right or not.

When I looked at the the 3 tiers they were all in alignment in non-bubble times and wildly out of alignment in bubble times. While I dont think we are at a bottom, seeing them in alignment gives me moment for pause that we may not be as far as I would have thought.

The problem with all your answers is that they are absolute. The world has never worked that way in the 45+ years that I have roamed the planet. Gray areas, blue areas, pink areas but very little black and white areas.

[sdrealtor]

The problem about looking at a graph for a bottom is that it can be different everywhere. The bottom in Mira Mesa may not be the same time as Carmel valley’s. The other problem is that the bottom is a time when someone buys a certain house at a certain price and that may or may not be you.

One of my clients is the fiercest bear I know. Far more negative than any of you. Nonethelesss we go out from time to time to look at houses. In over 2 years, he has not found a single home he liked enough to buy whether it was priced right or not.

When I looked at the the 3 tiers they were all in alignment in non-bubble times and wildly out of alignment in bubble times. While I dont think we are at a bottom, seeing them in alignment gives me moment for pause that we may not be as far as I would have thought.

The problem with all your answers is that they are absolute. The world has never worked that way in the 45+ years that I have roamed the planet. Gray areas, blue areas, pink areas but very little black and white areas.

[sdrealtor]

The problem about looking at a graph for a bottom is that it can be different everywhere. The bottom in Mira Mesa may not be the same time as Carmel valley’s. The other problem is that the bottom is a time when someone buys a certain house at a certain price and that may or may not be you.

One of my clients is the fiercest bear I know. Far more negative than any of you. Nonethelesss we go out from time to time to look at houses. In over 2 years, he has not found a single home he liked enough to buy whether it was priced right or not.

When I looked at the the 3 tiers they were all in alignment in non-bubble times and wildly out of alignment in bubble times. While I dont think we are at a bottom, seeing them in alignment gives me moment for pause that we may not be as far as I would have thought.

The problem with all your answers is that they are absolute. The world has never worked that way in the 45+ years that I have roamed the planet. Gray areas, blue areas, pink areas but very little black and white areas.

[sdrealtor]

The problem about looking at a graph for a bottom is that it can be different everywhere. The bottom in Mira Mesa may not be the same time as Carmel valley’s. The other problem is that the bottom is a time when someone buys a certain house at a certain price and that may or may not be you.

One of my clients is the fiercest bear I know. Far more negative than any of you. Nonethelesss we go out from time to time to look at houses. In over 2 years, he has not found a single home he liked enough to buy whether it was priced right or not.

When I looked at the the 3 tiers they were all in alignment in non-bubble times and wildly out of alignment in bubble times. While I dont think we are at a bottom, seeing them in alignment gives me moment for pause that we may not be as far as I would have thought.

The problem with all your answers is that they are absolute. The world has never worked that way in the 45+ years that I have roamed the planet. Gray areas, blue areas, pink areas but very little black and white areas.

[Author]

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