17,024 properties for sale in SD….

[erparadise]

Erparadise

Where does this 17,024 number come from?

When I check the S.D. MLS I get the following as of today:

San Diego County

Please Select a District
There are currently 19385 listings in San Diego County

1. North County Coastal (2988)
2. North County Inland (6204)
3. Central San Diego Coastal (1310)
4. Central San Diego (3979)
5. South Bay (2166)
6. East County (2738)

The number I’m seeing as of today (3/5/06) is 19,385

erparadise

[theplayers]

Adjusted for population growth, I recall someone on a blog estimate that about 23,000 of today’s inventory would equal the peak of 19k in 1996.

I would be interested to know what inventory was in 1990 or thereabouts, when the market here in SD peaked and began it’s downward correction, and then compare that to when inventory peaked in 1996 to see what % change we had. Rich, do you happen to have those numbers?

I think we will eventually end up blowing that 19,000 number away. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 35k to 40k in the next few years. There are just too many people who I think are going to lose their homes when their loans adjust and when job losses occur due to fallout from the correction; we’ve just barely begun to see that. Phoenix, with a population slightly higher than San Diego, has gone over 37,000 of inventory. I believe they’ve had much more speculation than us, however. But have they had as much creative lending as we’ve had here? If they can get to 37k inventory, why not us?

[barnaby33]

That number probably came from ZipRealty.

Josh

[powayseller]

erparadise – do you have MLS access, or are you using realtor.com or another MLS-sponsored site? Why are ziprealty’s numbers lower?

[Anonymous]

Some sites do not show all the listings. Some only show the listings in certain towns in the county. There are currently 19,491 listings shown on parkplace.com today March 7. The listings are rising fast.

[Wickedheart]

From SDHomePix.com;

There are currently 19561 listings in San Diego County

1. North County Coastal (3000)
2. North County Inland (6278)
3. Central San Diego Coastal (1338)
4. Central San Diego (4002)
5. South Bay (2216)
6. East County (2727)

[davelj]

there were about 2.5 million people in san diego county in 1995. today there are around 3.1 million (or thereabouts), so the population has increased by around 20% over the last decade, most of that coming between 1997 and 2002. so, if we adjust the 19,000 inventory figure upward by 20% we get to around 23,000 as a “population-adjusted” high water mark. for what it’s worth.

on a side note, everyone here is aware of all the reasons we have a bubble and the fact that it will eventually burst. math and common sense rarely lie… over the long term. but, let’s put aside the “logical” arguments for the moment. the reason i’ve known we’ve been in a bubble for quite some time (aside from all of the quantitative arguments) is simple: too many dumb people have been making too much money. it’s not unlike the stock daytrading phenomenon of 1998-2000. a bunch of dumb people were making too much money and 90% of them ultimately ended up losing their asses. that’s how markets work. rarely do idiots (or perhaps i should say the “less informed”) get to keep their gains.

i’d imagine that 90% of the real estate speculators, etc. will ultimately lose their asses in the next real estate correction; most don’t know when to stop, after all. they’ll keep leveraging up until it all goes *poof*, kind of like most gamblers in vegas. of the other 10%, about half are probably “skilled” and the other half are lucky.

the role of markets is to make people bullish at the top, bearish at the bottom and confused in between. that’s just the way markets work.

[sdkid]

Can anyone hazard an estimate of monthly income spent on mortgages? I know this is a little vague but I was just thinking I hadn’t heard anything about the affects of increased spending on mortgages on the economy.
Everyone seems to agree there will be a general increase in mortgage payments when ARMs begin resetting. Assuming that there AREN’T massive forclosures and bankruptcies and people ARE able to meet there payments. To what degree would this impact the economy considering these people will be consuming less?

[bubble_contagion]

17,648 as of 3/10 but who is counting anymore. The important news is that February sales are down from January and off 25% from February 05. In addition, sales price to list price ratio fell to 93%.

With at least two more rate hikes to go, we have inventory at the highest level since 98 (by far) and sales at the lowest level since 98. It doesn’t look good for the bubble.

Source of sales data: http://rereport.com

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