[quote=zk]
What if he sees that before long the economic sanctions are going to ruin his country?
[/quote]
I doubt that Putin thinks this now. He’s probably thinking that just like the past he’ll find ways to work around the sanctions. I have no idea whether the sanctions will stick this time around, but I doubt Putin is scared about sanctions. (If the sanctions do hold he might become concerned in the future, but not yet.)
[quote=zk]
What if he senses that the oligarchs are going to turn on him? In what way could the oligarchs turn on him besides assassinating him?
[/quote]
I doubt they will, and I doubt he’s worried about this either. I would imagine that Putin sees the oligarchs as his tribe. (As much as anyone is in his tribe.) As former KGB I’m sure he’s a bit paranoid and suspicious of those who would come after him, but probably oligarchs aren’t really the ones he needs to concern himself with. (Military and KGB are probably more likely to be an issue, they are the ones with the guns after all.)
[quote=zk]
It doesn’t seem at all unlikely that he will soon conclude that it’s him or all of us. Would he push the button then? Would somebody stop him?
[/quote]
Putin will use nukes if the military situation escalates enough. But at this point Putin’s military losses are minor. He’s finding more resistant than he’d like, but nothing that his army can’t overcome. But if NATO or the USA sends in troops and the situation escalates, all bets are off. (Please don’t take that last sentence as an argument for or against NATO or USA military action, that’s a whole other conversation that I’m not addressing here.)
[quote=zk]
What are the chances that putin just gives up and retreats? Practically zero, I would guess. I think the most likely outcome is an occupation of Ukraine by putin. No revelation there. But then what?
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My suspicion is that the USA and NATO do not actively defend Ukraine and it falls to Russian control in another week or two. Things get interesting then. USA and NATO will try to turn Ukraine into a revisit of Afghanistan for the Russians. I would not be surprised to see the USA/NATO support resistance that makes holding Ukraine costly and bloody.
[quote=zk]
Between economic sanctions and the costs of war, Russia can’t economically survive for long.
[/quote]
Hmmm… I disagree. Russia will probably not be as prosperous, but that is completely different than not being able to survive. And my biggest point here is that you are trying to look at this situation with the expectation that the participants will act rationally. But people aren’t rational, and instead there will be many people in Russia who will support Putin because he’s trying to fight for Russia against those “others” who are trying to hold our glorious country back. If you learned nothing about the last few years in the USA, take note of how rationality has little to do with what people think and how much tribalism and nationalistic patriotism does impact peoples beliefs and who they support. (And actually, I think you do know this, you just need to remember it now.)
[quote=zk]
I have no idea whether the oligarchs will put up with that, and I don’t really know whether or not they have both the capability and the huevos to assasinate putin. If they don’t, then what? Putin just watches his country die while his citizens turn against him?
[/quote]
I doubt people in Russia start to die off en mass due to sanctions or resistance in an occupied Ukraine. Instead, things just plod along, and Putin remains in control and fabulously well to do. (Some argue that Putin is far and away the richest man in the world, it’s just that his wealth is hidden. I have no idea how true that is or isn’t though. But the point is that Putin and his cronies still remain in power and live comfortable lives.)
The biggest upshot out of this is probably a surprising change of opinion in European Union that NATO is not an outdated organization that we shouldn’t support. Nothing brings people (in this case the people of Europe) together than the feeling that they have a common enemy.
[quote=zk]
Propaganda is a strong force, especially in Russia. I suppose it’s possible that his citizens, deceived by his propaganda, won’t think it’s his fault in sufficient numbers and with sufficient energy to do anything about it.[/quote]
See above. More likely for many Russians this will be a popular move on Putins part. Just like the USA has pro-Trump and anti-Trump, there will be pro-Putin and anti-Putin. (although anti-Putin won’t be too vocal publicly) But bottom line, this probably plays out okay for Putin in Russia.
[quote=zk]
Whether they turn against him or not, though, the country will be economically devastated within, I don’t know, a couple years anyway. Is putin just going to sit there and let that happen? Will he just sit there knowing he failed to do anything but ruin two countries, including his beloved Russia? More worryingly, will he, at some point, see all of this ahead of him and lash out before all that happens?
[/quote]
The argument that Russia will be economically devastated is overblown in my opinion. Russia is a big place with lots of resources and lots of industrial capacity. It also will still maintain reasonably friendly relations with a lot of other countries. Just because USA and EU are gonna be pissed off at Putin doesn’t mean that Russia won’t survive. Sure, some oligarchs are gonna have their yachts seized. Maybe some bank accounts, or Manhattan apartments. TFB. They’ll get over it. Sanctions may or may not hold, and even if they do they won’t devastate the country.
Don’t get me wrong here. I do think the invasion of Ukraine is a big deal. And sure there is a chance this escalates into something horrific. But, at this time, it looks like a really bad situation for Ukraine, a bunch of sanctions that will cause some pain to Russia but nothing devastating, and will cause the rest of Europe to think more about their security.
All that said, I have strongly felt for a long time that WWI and WWII taught the world the disaster that nationalism and flag waving patriotism can lead to. But it’s been over 75 years since WWII ended and it seems a lot of that lesson has been forgotten. And if we don’t relearn that lesson some other way, sooner or later nationalism will lead us to another major war. But hopefully I’m not just being foolishly optimistic when I say, “yes, but not yet.”
