zk, it’s not possible to leave Iraq to the Iraqis – much of the violence is instigated by Iran, which you agree is a powerful and dangerous theocracy.
Ok then. Do you think 30,000 more troops will be enough? If so, why? If not, how many? If it’s another 300,000, and we have to reinstate the draft and spend trillions more, is that what you want to do? Before we decide whether to leave Iraq to the Iraqis, I think we should decide what it’s going to cost not to leave it to them and compare that to the cost of leaving it to them. (That’s the kind of thinking we should have done with clear eyes before we went in in the first place. But it’s too late for that now.)
“You had cited the level of violence in Iraq as evidence that I am wrong to think the war could head off a larger conflict; to then ask why I’m worried about a larger conflict given the sectarian violence is incoherent.”
I didn’t say, “given sectarian violence.” What I said was, “if most violent islamic strife is one muslim faction vs another (quoting you saying that most violent Islamic strife is one muslim faction against another), then why are you worried about a fullscale civilizational war with islam? Won’t they just be fighting each other?” Note that I said, “If.” The if being: “if, according to your argument.” You said that bush’s war in Iraq could head off full scale war. And then you said “Most of the violent Islamic strife is one Muslim faction vs another. To the extent Muslim savagery turns inward, it turns away from us.” So yes, it is incoherent to say on the one hand that we should be afraid of full scale war and then on the other hand say that most violent Islamic strife is one faction against the other. But that incoherence is yours, not mine.
“The best case result from the invasion would be to help Iraq become a beachhead of liberalism in the Arab world, something that could be a source of Muslim pride without being a threat to us.”
That kind of attempt to project American culture and ideas on middle eastern culture is a huge part of the problem we’ve had in trying to change the middle east. What makes you think a beachhead of liberalism would be a source of pride for them? And, really, you’re happy with a war in which 3,000 Americans were killed and trillions were spent and in which the best case outcome is muslim pride that isn’t a threat to us?
“That was the President’s goal, and it’s a laudable one.”
If that was the president’s goal, then he should’ve told congress and the American people that that was his goal before we let him send our kids off to die. Maybe we wouldn’t have let him.
“You want to focus on al Qaeda? They’re in Iraq.”
That’s true. They are in Iraq now that we’ve opened that country up to them. So far not much of a beachhead for liberalism or pride. Just a beachhead for al qaeda. Again, that’s in the past. We could’ve not attacked Iraq, and focused on al qaeda (which wasn’t in Iraq then and still wouldn’t be if it wasn’t for bush) in 2002-2006, but we screwed that up. Time to move on. So, like I said, we need to take a clear look – not the ever-optimistic “bush” look – at what our options are. And we need to decide whether 30k troops is enough. And if it’s not, either don’t send them (withdraw) or send more. Over-optimistic thinking has been as large a part of the bush problem as his emphasis on loyalty over competence, his refusal to listen to advice, his surrounding of himself with those who agree with him, his refusal to see his mistakes, his politics of fear, his separation from reality, and his general ineptitude. And I sure hope (like I hope I win the lottery) that he can start looking at things clearly now, before more Americans die from his failures.
“Finally, if you’re going to criticize others for making statements without evidence, you should avoid claims about things like Sistani’s pre-invasion importance and the religiosity of Iraqi Shia unless you have a summer home in Najaf you haven’t told us about.”
Now, that’s just plain silly. We all rely on things other than personal observations to make judgements. You yourself said, “The one where Ayatollah Sistani has so much clout?” How do you know that? And besides, I didn’t criticize sdnativeson for making a statement without evidence. In fact, I didn’t even criticize him. What I said was, “You’re certainly entitled to that opinion, but stated with no reasons or substantiation, it’s meaningless.” I wasn’t asking for evidence. Just reasons. They’re different.
