You can download the market returns by month from Yahoo.
If you retired in in May (I picked May because the month just closed), in any year from 1999 to last year with $1,000,000, and matched the S&P 500 return while needing to take out $40,000 a year in equal monthly installments, in only 3 of 13 years do you have a remaining balance above $1,000,000.
In only one of those, retiring May 2009, is your balance notably larger, $1,363,209. The other two are $1.016M and 1.026M The lowest, noteworthily low, is the May 2000 retiree, their balance is $356K, their $40K annual stiped has also lost 20% of it’s purchasing power.
It’s overly simplified but highlights volatility risk. In 9 of 13 years, note that their low points hit the 500s or lower. That’ll really stress you out.
