[quote=XBoxBoy]And my biggest point here is that you are trying to look at this situation with the expectation that the participants will act rationally. [/quote]
Not sure what I wrote that gave you that impression, but whatever it was, I certainly don’t expect rational behavior from putin or from any Russian people who have been exposed to enough propaganda. I think the only possible reason that they wouldn’t turn on putin in the face of massive economic pain is because they’ve been deceived by propaganda. Of course, Russians turning on putin would only happen if the sanctions are as effective as I think they’ll be. If you are right and I am wrong about the sanctions, the situation (for the world, but not for Ukraine) isn’t as dire.
I probably did overstate even my own position when I said Russia couldn’t “survive” the sanctions and that their economy would be “devastated.” But short of extinction or devastation, there are many levels of pain. At what level of pain, if any, does the pain become a problem for putin’s grip on the country?
Your position is that whatever level that is, the sanctions aren’t likely to bring us to that level (if I read correctly). I don’t know whether to root for that or not. If the sanctions cause enough pain, maybe they compel putin to give up and leave Ukraine (extremely doubtful), or maybe they compel the oligarchs or the military or the KGB (or the Russian people, if they’re able) to get rid of putin. But in the devastating-sanctions scenario there is also the risk that putin is pushed to a breaking point and he pushes the button. If the sanctions don’t cause enough pain, Ukraine stays occupied and putin stays in power.
The only reasonably likely scenario that I can think of that is not terrible (terrible being, at a minimum, Ukranian loss of soveriegnty, many Ukranian and Russian war deaths, economic pain for the Russian people and, to a lesser degree, economic pain for Russia’s trading partners) is somebody getting rid of putin.
