Xbox, I agree with everything you said. In specific, you are totally right about there being 1314 fewer jobs in SD… I didn’t bring up the “1 week’s worth of jobs” to imply that the layoffs didn’t have a negative effect at all — they do for sure. I was just trying to put it in quantitative perspective that it’s not a giant impact overall. Ie, losing 1 week’s worth of jobs might reduce the number of new jobs created in 2015 by about 2%. As you noted, they are particularly high paying jobs so the hit is higher than that in wage terms, but you see what I mean…
Anyhoo. As to your last thing… I don’t disagree at all that the housing market could turn down at some point. Maybe soon. I don’t know. As I mentioned in another thread, I think all these little indicators I chart are good for 2 things:
– The valuation indicators (home prices compared to rent and income) give a good ballpark, I think, of your potential inflation-adjusted appreciation — or lack thereof — over a longer term timeframe (let’s say 5-10 years).
– Months of inventory gives you a good idea of price pressures immediately ahead (let’s say a month or two)
Unfortunately, the area in between (3 months through 5 years or whatever) requires a lot more speculation, guessing, and economic predictions. That’s not to say it’s not fun or interesting to do, but I have a lot less confidence in speculations/guesses/economic forecasts (my own, and everyone else’s) than I do in the two quantitative measures mentioned above.
So… could housing turn down soon? Well, there’s no indication that this is happening, but yeah — it sure could. Homes are overpriced and when something is overpriced, it’s a lot more vulnerable to exogenous events. So I wouldn’t be surprised, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if it went the other way. Just about the only thing I’m confident in predicting is that people who are banking on a lot of appreciation over the next 5-10 years are likely to be disappointed (or possibly worse).
Anyway, I think I just misunderstood your original assertion, as I am in agreement with you on all counts. Order is restored to the universe!
