How will Qualcomm layoff impact SD housing market?

[Rich Toscano]

Xbox, I agree with everything you said. In specific, you are totally right about there being 1314 fewer jobs in SD… I didn’t bring up the “1 week’s worth of jobs” to imply that the layoffs didn’t have a negative effect at all — they do for sure. I was just trying to put it in quantitative perspective that it’s not a giant impact overall. Ie, losing 1 week’s worth of jobs might reduce the number of new jobs created in 2015 by about 2%. As you noted, they are particularly high paying jobs so the hit is higher than that in wage terms, but you see what I mean…

Anyhoo. As to your last thing… I don’t disagree at all that the housing market could turn down at some point. Maybe soon. I don’t know. As I mentioned in another thread, I think all these little indicators I chart are good for 2 things:

– The valuation indicators (home prices compared to rent and income) give a good ballpark, I think, of your potential inflation-adjusted appreciation — or lack thereof — over a longer term timeframe (let’s say 5-10 years).
– Months of inventory gives you a good idea of price pressures immediately ahead (let’s say a month or two)

Unfortunately, the area in between (3 months through 5 years or whatever) requires a lot more speculation, guessing, and economic predictions. That’s not to say it’s not fun or interesting to do, but I have a lot less confidence in speculations/guesses/economic forecasts (my own, and everyone else’s) than I do in the two quantitative measures mentioned above.

So… could housing turn down soon? Well, there’s no indication that this is happening, but yeah — it sure could. Homes are overpriced and when something is overpriced, it’s a lot more vulnerable to exogenous events. So I wouldn’t be surprised, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if it went the other way. Just about the only thing I’m confident in predicting is that people who are banking on a lot of appreciation over the next 5-10 years are likely to be disappointed (or possibly worse).

Anyway, I think I just misunderstood your original assertion, as I am in agreement with you on all counts. Order is restored to the universe!

[FlyerInHi]

Mixxalot, the corruption in China is one thing, but not a significant factor in Chinese buyers in USA.

There are lots of business owners in China who see the US at good place to send their kids to college. A US education is a rite of passage. So they buy houses for that purpose.

Think of it this way: a car dealer in Minnesota might be able to afford a couple houses in California. China is a huge economy, there are plenty of business people who have money.

[birmingplumb]

Hi all old friends from Detroit. Just found out about Qcomm layoffs from daughter working immigration law firm there. 15 % of her firm gone due to layoffs trickle down effect. Hope it shakes out soon and they get back on top . Had to chime in on complaining of “Chinese buyers”-Flu did excellent politically correct job calling bluff of buffoon( we in Motown here do not have her gift.) Our plant just voted down Fiat deal Uaw Local 7 60% “no” not published yet. Can’t wait for a retirement incentive so I can join you all probably either San Clemente Talegra, La Jolla, Temecula, or last but not least Laguna Woods for 150k 2 br. God bless this forum and God bless the people who have been so kind to this autoworker both during the Chrysler bankruptcy and after when the kids all moved there-Motown that means you bearish gurl too ( p.s Big 3 doing ok, thanks for your support God luv you all!)

[bearishgurl]

[quote=birmingplumb]Hi all old friends from Detroit. Just found out about Qcomm layoffs from daughter working immigration law firm there. 15 % of her firm gone due to layoffs trickle down effect. Hope it shakes out soon and they get back on top . Had to chime in on complaining of “Chinese buyers”-Flu did excellent politically correct job calling bluff of buffoon( we in Motown here do not have her gift.) Our plant just voted down Fiat deal Uaw Local 7 60% “no” not published yet. Can’t wait for a retirement incentive so I can join you all probably either San Clemente Talegra, La Jolla, Temecula, or last but not least Laguna Woods for 150k 2 br. God bless this forum and God bless the people who have been so kind to this autoworker both during the Chrysler bankruptcy and after when the kids all moved there-Motown that means you bearish gurl too ( p.s Big 3 doing ok, thanks for your support God luv you all!)[/quote]

Well, not sure if its your plant that makes them, birmingplumb, but I watched a few videos of the 2015 Jeep Cherokee and Grand Cherokee back in August and was astounded at how luxurious they are inside now … even coming with hydraulics and now an “Eco-Diesel” model! They are the closest American cousin to a Toyota 4-Runner, which I am very familiar with. I have ridden in several JCs/JGCs in the CO mtns on very high, challenging trails (’99 to ’11 models) and was very impressed with their abilities up there! They also seem to last as long as a Toyota now with two of the ones I rode in having an excess of 235K miles on the odometer but still running great! Chrysler seems to have really stepped up their game quality-wise since their BK and even before that with the sturdy JC. In spite of whatever gubment assistance Chrysler/GM have taken in the past, the “Big 3” are doing okay now because they have been coming out with quality vehicles in recent years which sell very well, plain and simple . . . ESPECIALLY in the light truck/SUV (on truck chassis) category :=]

Whether or not you work on the line, ya’ll keep up the good work!

So glad to hear your kids are doing well in SD, birmingplumb and hope your daughter survives the layoffs at her firm.

[utcsox]

bump..

http://www.cbs8.com/story/30283403/san-diego-county-unemployment-rate-lowest-since-2007

Out of control job creation continue in San Diego. At this rate, we will have a lower unemployment rate than Texas next year.

“The September employment report was even better than expected, as the regional economy looks to be picking up speed toward the end of 2015,” said Phil Blair, CEO of the staffing firm Manpower San Diego. “We saw a disappointing national jobs report released earlier this month, but it was just the opposite in San Diego, with outstanding job growth driven by our construction, manufacturing, and technology sectors.”

San Diego County’s economy added 46,900 nonfarm jobs over the past year, with the biggest gain in the professional, scientific and technical sector, which increased by 9,600 positions. Accommodations and food services increased by around 8,000 jobs.”

[utcsox]

delete double post

[Coronita]

I don’t think the tech market here is that bad. I know my company has been hiring and there’s a been few contacts over linkedin about startups.

[Coronita]

bump…

Well, looks like Qualcomm is recovering. Pretty decent quarter….

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM

And yes, the layoffs didn’t do didly to housing inventory and house prices.

My understanding is that they didn’t need to do the full layoff, because shortly after after the layoff announcement, a lot of good/top people ended up leaving for Google, Facebook, Apple, etc. So then, they had a bigger problem of attrition. So they ended up giving some people pretty big retention bonuses just to stay.

Lol.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=flu]bump…

Well, looks like Qualcomm is recovering. Pretty decent quarter….

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM

And yes, the layoffs didn’t do didly to housing inventory and house prices.

My understanding is that they didn’t need to do the full layoff, because shortly after after the layoff announcement, a lot of good/top people ended up leaving for Google, Facebook, Apple, etc. So then, they had a bigger problem of attrition. So they ended up giving some people pretty big retention bonuses just to stay.

Lol.[/quote]

Well, yeah. And they retired. Because they could. And the QC retirees didn’t all live in one zip code. They were spread out throughout the county. And now happily retired in place, they’re not going anywhere.

Move on, folks. There was never anything to see here then and there isn’t anything to see here today.

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