Without knowing much about Carmel Valley, it might be a good idea to look at pricing trends from 1970-present. Many of us think that it’s unwise to buy anything priced higher than 2001 levels.
Different areas behave differently. Do NOT expect your realtor to do the work for you. YOU need to be the one who investigates pricing trends over time. Realtors often take advantage of a buyer’s ignorance when they come from somewhere else.
Understand how Prop 13 works, and do not take “seller concessions” in lieu of a discounted price. You will be paying taxes for those “concessions” for as long as you own that house. It is key to get the house for the lowest price possible.
Know that 2001 was already nearing the top of the “normal” real estate cycle (everything after that was a result of the massive credit bubble). I cannot stress enough the need for you to do your own research. Check public records, and take a look at how different areas performed during the 1970-2001 period, then see what happened after that. Come to your own conclusions based on what you find during your research.
Do not rely on Zillow or any other home price valuation tool. Look at closed sales over the years (the longer term, the better), and realize that many of the sales in the 2003-2007 period were based on fraud/loans that could not be paid back — they are not a legitimate reflection of the true value of houses. Do not price anchor to bubble prices. Anchor to pre-bubble prices (2001 and before).
