When making such bold predictions (a.k.a. wild-ass-guesses), I always try to err on the side of “whatever is happening will take longer than anyone expects.”
Often times, very smart people are right about pointing out a market condition that needs to be corrected, but very wrong about how long it will take to correct it.
I think the same will happen with the duration of the recession. Guys guys like Rubini and Mish are predicting a long one. I think it will take longer, especially with the gubmint trying so hard to delay the shakeouts that need to occur.
If the official start was in Dec. 2007, I think the official duration will be closer to 30 months than 18 months. I think next Christmas will not be as bad as this one. I think we’ll be crawling up the hill by then.
I was actually a bit surprised that the official start was declared in Dec. 2007. That seems early to me. The really nasty stuff didn’t hit the stock market until Oct of this year and unemployment wasn’t obviously bad until the middle of this year and my last customer didn’t run out of money until July but the timing of those things don’t always match up with the timing of the recession, either.
The bad news about that is the pain of the recession may last several months after the official end.
It wouldn’t shock me if this recession ended in late 2009, then another one hits in 2011 when all the people who have been bailed out realize they are still screwed.
