What is there to discuss right now? We have two camps:
1) People who believe the banks will gain control of the snowball and manage to bleed off the shadow inventory AND the next few waves of foreclosures. They think housing is near bottom and somehow banks can slowly sell REOs for the next ten years and not have an appreciable fall in prices.
2) People who believe the dam has to eventually break and when it does we will see some once in a lifetime opportunities. They think housing is balancing on the precipice of another really big fall, and housing, especially in San Diego is still way overpriced.
We’ve debated this adnaseum, all that is left now is to wait to see who is correct, maybe on 8-31-09?
I’m amazed at those who don’t extrapolate the condition of our economy, debt levels, jobs and loan losses. So many on this board chose to exclude the facts of what is actually happening around them and instead choose “hope”, I guess. They believe the Tooth Fairy brings the jobs that pay mortgages and rents. Maybe that’s why they don’t try and forecast job growth?
Right now the only way to make wise decisions in RE investment is by putting careful thought into the process. Where will jobs come from? How will the enormous burden of debt consumers are drowning in, be erased? Are we taking the very same steps Japan took and therefore heading for 20 years of no real appreciation in RE?
If I can’t identify an engine for job growth then what good are my investment rental models? If 15% unemployment is the “new” normal in CA, how long will I have to wait to have a clear picture of the “new” norm in rental rates?
In the meantime why not talk about something. I’ve been lurking and reading this site for 3 years. I found the old conversations boring. The endless debates of whether we were in a bubble or not seemed ridiculous to me. Some of the recent topics have gotten my attention. I’m looking forward; I enjoy getting insight to where this country is headed, and so far it does not look good. I use this in my RE plans and so far it’s been a good barometer and I’m solidly in camp #2.
We’ve talked about energy, car manufacturers, and movie stars, Temecula cheerleading and other, sometimes fun, stuff. But I digress, to answer the OP’s Q, yes Pigg seemed to be dying so some have chosen to bring up other topics until this fall when all eyes will be on RE again.
So enough with the haters who do not contribute but are far too eager to jump into any thread and post clever (they think) non-contributing drive-bys. Hey, at least some of us are trying. If you don’t like the topics and think they are “SAD” then create some topics “you” think are good.
