What I always try to remember is that during the past bust I was waaay to optimistic about when the market would turn. During the 90s I called the bottom 2 years early, and then I repeated that mistake by (privately) calling the subsequent peak 2 years early. I’m done with making that mistake.
The only reason I am confident it won’t turn prior to 2010 is because of the current overhang in inventory, the tightening of the credit markets, the resetting arm schedule, and the prevailing market psychology. From where we are right now, this boat is too big to turn around in less than 2 years.
