Well the Fortino Pt home is interesting. It is a pure flip. We went to the auction to bid this home. It was pretty much a flippers dream, in very good condition and no problem getting the current owners out of the home. The problem was that there was an intense amount of bidding. Over the past few months I have been much more tentative because I feel the tide is turning and the bidding went past our margin threshold very very quickly. To be specific I am getting concerned about many areas because the active pending ratios are starting to turn ugly. This is a case in point. The inventory in Stonebridge is growing. This home is decent enough and would be categorized as low end Stonebridge. Like I said I know it well.
Here are some quick numbers for you….
Right now there are about 28 Active listings on the MLS for Stonebrige. However some of those are new lots so really the number is less then 28 actives. There are 2 contingents and there are 12 pendings. So on the surface that Active to Pending ratio is not bad…
However lets look closer at the actives that are like Fortino. Fortino is a 3564 sf plan. Listed 2 days at 799k. Now a few others though. 12877 Starwood listed at 740k. Same plan listed as active for 104 days. Not as nice true but…11345 Silver Oak, this is the 3800 sf plan listed for 6 days at 725-775k. There is the home on Rose Garden about the same sf for 825k. 62 days on the market though. There are several more in that same sf and bigger all in the same range but with market times of varying length all over 50 days. Now no way these all sell. They will reduce in price. As they go down so does Fortino.
I really wish I recall what the threshold I had was on the home but it went and it went high, surprisingly high… I am pretty sure it was well past 650k and may have been close to 700k. Now if these guys sell it at 790k when you back out a few points for commission and closing costs say they net out 760k. So they walk with a little less then 10% margin. Not bad at all these days.
However if the market in Stonebridge rolls over they need to cut and run fast….
Moral of the story? Well I think that if it were me I would wait for Stonebridge to come to me rather then go to Stonebridge. I think as we go through the summer some of these lower end homes will come down some.
