1: Vantage point units will totally sell.
A landlord with a pre-mapped building that cash flows positive is in no hurry to fire sale them but I would expect that at some point in the next few years, the nominal prices will cause selling to make more sense than renting.
Further, VP can sell them off slowly and at its leisure (while still pulling rents). The only question in that strategy is the cost of HOA obligations for the project owner.[/quote]
I’m not even thinking about VP… Zell (ERP) rarely sells his apartment buildings. I don’t think this will be an issue for downtown supply for so long into the future that it’s not even worth contemplating.
[quote=urbanrealtor]
3: The mean rate (taken over the course of the year) for closings in downtown is about 75/month.
The instantaneous rate of change on this is highly correlated to season (about 50 per october to march and about 100 per month april to september) but it works out the same. About 900 per year. Currently, there is about 400 active for sale in 92101 with roughly translates to about 5 months of inventory.
In a distress-heavy area, that is an impressive mean closing speed.
There are currently about 139 pendings listed in 92101. That means there are approximately 3 units for every one buyer as of today.
If you ask Jim Klinge about this, he will probably tell you that this is a healthy ratio with a just a hint of tilting toward a seller’s market.
[/quote]
I just wonder how much inventory is *really* out there. Again, I think most of the specuvestors are gone or will be gone by year’s end (2011). Now we’re seeing some unemployment-related foreclosures and short sales, but those are slowing down. So, my REAL question is how many new, unoccupied, un-owned units are sitting in downtown’s inventory. For example, how many units in Bayside have been purchased (to use just one example)? I wouldn’t be surprised if there are 1,000 new units sitting in inventory downtown. Having said that… I just don’t know. I’m pretty sure that I can get my hands on that data soon, though. But if you know these actual numbers, by all means… inquiring minds and all. I’d love to be wrong about this.
