What does “Sales will be strong” mean?
I can’t put a number on it because so much is dependent upon what goes on the market.I dont think nearly as much will go on the market as we need for rapid depreciation. Most of what does go on the market will be impaired in many ways (bad location, small lot, poorly maintained, backs to busy road, stripped to the studs of cabinets/appliances etc.) My comment was meant to be a general feeling that nice North County Coastal homes in the 600 to 850 range (perhaps up to $1M) will have no problem selling within 14 to 30 days and will be subject to multiple offers.
prices “may even creep up a little in some markets”
In the SFR sub-550K market in places like Encinitas, Carlsbad, PQ, RB, Scripps, Tierrasanta, Poway there will be bidding wars with homes going over asking price. A home listed at 475K which is selling today at 475K could easily sell in the 500K range. In Clairemont, a nice home now under 400K will be able to sell just over 400K.
Regarding balance the comment “a few well-funded buyers and a few distressed owners” says it all for the good neighborhoods. There are and will be more buyers than sellers for the kinds of homes most people would prefer (nice open floorplan, decent condition, quiet location, nice size yard, good schools, low/no fees, good freeway access etc.)
In the “good hoods” it will be a long slow slide from here. In the sub 800K market I dont think there is anymore than 15% off current prices left to bleed off the general price levels. Sure there will be occassional outstanding deals (there always are) but that will not be the norm. We should get 5 to 10% of that again this year and after that it will be a slow painful trainwreck. If I was a serious buyer, I’d be prepared to jump by this time next year particularly if I found something I really liked. The return for waiting longer just wont be there IMO.
My bottomline is that yes real estate is dying hard but it is starting to find some support under its legs. I think the worst (or best depending upon your perspective) of the price declines is past us already except in the hoity toity price ranges.
