What I am saying, then, is that we should evaluate the robustness of the Republican bounce by how well it holds up to the currents of political time, rather than any specific date on the calendar. Specifically, I would want to see how the bounce holds up to the next major development of the campaign, particularly if it is a pro-Obama development. For example, let’s say that Colin Powell endorses Obama tomorrow morning. I might expect a fairly strong reaction to this in the polls, not because the endorsement is all that important unto itself (most endorsements aren’t), but because it displaces the GOP Convention as the most recent event of the campaign — it pushes political time forward. And if the polls didn’t move in reaction to such an endorsement, I’d think Democrats would have reason to worry.
I also wonder what will happen to McCain’s bounce as Palin comes out of her bunker and starts making gaffes, such as the one today where she clearly has no idea what Fannie & Freddie are:
Speaking before voters in Colorado Springs, the Republican vice presidential nominee claimed that lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had “gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers.”
Of course we all know that Fannie & Freddie were private companies. You would think that the VP candidate should know that too.
There are still plenty of game changing events out there that can happen between now and the election. We still have the debates and major endorsements in the pipline (what would Powell and Hagel endorsements do for Obama’s numbers?). Of course if we invade Iran, we might as well hand the election to McCain now.
