They may be correct on their timing for hitting bottom for the nation as a whole but they are way off base where the bubble markets are concerned. With the large supply of REO’s that will need to be re-sold and with many more coming………..then add the huge number of foreclosures that will occur with the ARM resets over the next couple of years………..then add in the homeowners who will have to sell due to divorce, job loss, job transfer, etc, and you have so many homes and too few qualified buyers, even at 50% discounts from the peak. There’s a whole new set of qualifying rules for mortgage seekers and they’re not going to give any more $700k loans to berry pickers who make $10 an hour. (no offense intended to the berry pickers-just a reference to a story that I read in a NorCal paper).
So, it’s going to take a long time to get the supply of homes down to a normal level of supply for each market. The end of 2011 to the middle of 2012 will be the earliest time that CA and most of the other bubble markets will hit the bottom and when the bottom hits, prices will remain on the bottom for a long time. I just can’t see anything short of that occurring.
