There’s no way I can give you data of the last bounce in 1994 for all 3 of your indicator. However, if you take a look at Rich graph in the bubble primer, you see that 1994 is well under the longer term average, so my guess is the HAI is pretty good at that point. Also, do you noticed some of the realtor who are ahead of the curve call the top of this cycle at least 1 year before it show up in the OFHEO median? So can it also apply on the way up from the bottom? Could it be possible that they might call the bottom 1 year before it turn positive for the first time? Which is 1994 by the way. The HAI can be shown with graph from Rich but the realtor sentiment is only my guess since I did not talk to any realtor back then. I don’t think I can find inventory data back then since the data is not widely available on the Internet like it is now.
I also showed that an event like 9/11 can change a cycle. W/out 9/11, there were on their way back down. But if you’re still strongly believe you can time the bottom and top, good luck to you. The school of life has very expensive, make sure you’re prepare to pay. I sure paid my share.
