there were about 2.5 million people in san diego county in 1995. today there are around 3.1 million (or thereabouts), so the population has increased by around 20% over the last decade, most of that coming between 1997 and 2002. so, if we adjust the 19,000 inventory figure upward by 20% we get to around 23,000 as a “population-adjusted” high water mark. for what it’s worth.
on a side note, everyone here is aware of all the reasons we have a bubble and the fact that it will eventually burst. math and common sense rarely lie… over the long term. but, let’s put aside the “logical” arguments for the moment. the reason i’ve known we’ve been in a bubble for quite some time (aside from all of the quantitative arguments) is simple: too many dumb people have been making too much money. it’s not unlike the stock daytrading phenomenon of 1998-2000. a bunch of dumb people were making too much money and 90% of them ultimately ended up losing their asses. that’s how markets work. rarely do idiots (or perhaps i should say the “less informed”) get to keep their gains.
i’d imagine that 90% of the real estate speculators, etc. will ultimately lose their asses in the next real estate correction; most don’t know when to stop, after all. they’ll keep leveraging up until it all goes *poof*, kind of like most gamblers in vegas. of the other 10%, about half are probably “skilled” and the other half are lucky.
the role of markets is to make people bullish at the top, bearish at the bottom and confused in between. that’s just the way markets work.
