There are 1 trillion in ARM mortgages due to reset in the next 1-4 years. another almost 1 trillion in ALT-A mortgages also due to reset in the next 1-4 years. Commercial loans amounting to 1.5 trillion are due to refinance in the next 1-4 years. Commercial loans have to be re appraised and completly refinanced every 3-10 years, unlike residential loans, so when their values fall 40% and the LTV goes from 100% to 70%, people have to come up with 50% of the original worth of the loan (made back when prices were overinfalted) in order to keep the same property that is going down in value. Commercial loand are also non-recourse, which means that the bank can not come after the person for payment. The bank gets the bad debt back with the property. My concern is that the fed will rescue all of this to the tune of 3-5 trillion, all with new money. I really have a hard time predicting what will happen then, aside from big time infaltion. We are in for a big W in our “recovery”. Buying a home now should be for long term use, not for flipping. You will probably get burned if you try flipping in these changing conditions. You tube has many videos about these topics. Elizabeth Warren, congerssional oversight commission chair, is a good place to start.
