The reason oil went from mid 30’s to pushing 80 as the economy got worse and worst was solely due to maniplation by entities to keep Russia and Dubai and other Mid East governments from going under.
It’s cheaper for banks and other entities to push up oil prices by buying futures then getting hit with defaults.
Russia owes $400B to mostly western banks. If oil gets back to where it belongs which is around $25 a barrel and stays there for a few months then Russia will likely default along with Dubai and probably others.
