The quick conclusion of some media on the wikileaks piece about China being “frustrated” with NK and would support a reunification of Korea really made me laugh.
I think that it is too soon to conclude or consider that China is “frustrated” with North Korea and would let a reunification of Korea occurs. We can not take what was leaked literally as the reality simply because of the various contexts or special reasons that these diplomats say things. I would stick to the fundamentals of geopolitics in this region and I believe:
-A reunification of Korea is clearly against China’s interest. Reunification means the US’s surrounding China policy is even more tighter, the sensitive yellow sea area of North Korea will be in South and US’s hand, even closer to Peking.
-North Korea is a card that China will play when they need to negotiate with US since only China could “influence” North Korea.
-North Korea will further be dependent on China as the primary political and economic supporter for its leader’s survival while China, playing the card, allow NK to act as a destabilizer dog in the region as negotiating bargaining chips.
-As the US is reasserting its interest in East/Southeast Asia after years of neglect (one big reason is to preserve the rights for its traditional sea lanes against China’s recent aggressive claims), with China being politically beaten down a bit now, I suspect China has decided to play its card to get the US to pay attention and perhaps appreciate the potential damages a wild NorthKorea can be (to world economy and regional stability). And hence will negotiations on other issues relating to China-US interests.
