The point where the upswing met the long term trendline was in late 1998 or so. That’s that point from which you would measure the “should be” value and start adjusting forward.
Starting at 2000 gives you an artificially high baseline because you’re measuring from farther up on the upswing. The average SFR price in the 3rd qtr 1998 was $279,000; the average price in the 3rd qtr 2000 was $355,000. That’s a 20+% difference right there, and relative to the 1940 price the difference between 279 and 355 is even greater.
I don’t think the real avg rate of increase is 9%/year.
