The NET migration out of CA has been going on for years, and the evidence is pretty well established. U-Haul rates for bringing in a trailer to CA vs. taking one out of CA have long shown this, and are now just as convincing as ever. As has been suggested, United Van Lines may zero in on a wealthier demographic than U-Haul. I suspect, but cannot prove, that a lot more people move using U-Haul than an expensive mover like United.
Actually, we won’t know for many months the impact of the sharp raise in CA income tax rates on people moving into or out of CA. Unlike us Piggs, many people don’t focus on news and tax issues, and will only learn about our new tax regime when they sit down this winter to do their taxes. Then they will also get the rude awakening that the jump in rates applies to all of their 2012 income.
The recent jump in CA home values may turn out to be another motivator to move, in that people will realize that they have home equity after all and can now cash out to finance a move and a purchase of reasonably-priced housing elsewhere.
What counts in people’s decision-making is not just their current situation, but their expectations of the future. As they look at the direction of CA’s taxes and government vs that of other states, the exodus may well accelerate. But the numbers to prove that will only be evident in the months and years to come.
