The economy, and the stock market move in cycles, up and down, up and down, just like night and day.
Chris, I got your 20% gain off the first page of the last newsletter, where you list the historical average for these mid-election year rallies.
Just curious: are you flexible in your view that the market will rally this fall?
My recession call is definitelyflexible, as I evaluate it every day. I will enter the market after I see a glimmer of hope for the economy. I’d need to see that consumer spending, which is 70% of GDP, has a shot at rising again. Incoming data is just reinforcing my recession call and the bear market starting by early 07.
I am not interested in debating this further, unless you have evidence that a recession is not possible. I won’t accept the argument that stock markets rise in a recession, because history shows that the markets falls 28% in a recession. So the only way that the S&P500 can rise, is if we don’t have a recession. It is certainly possible that in a bear market individual stocks will rise, and you can make money on short-term trading, although it is more difficult. I will leave that for the pros.
Well, I’ve exhausted this topic, and now we just have to wait and see how the market goes ….
