The bullish case for the stock market is based on S&P estimates that earnings for the S&P 500 will rise 20% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008, from 2007 also I’m getting a pony this Christmas……….with spots. Seriously that what’s the whole bullish case is right now, the FED has dropped its drawers and a HUGE rebound will begin in earnest during the second half of 08. Of course as data and earnings start coming in that throw water on this assumption the market will more than likely make its LOW. What has happened in past recessions is that the FED would lower interest rates and this would act as a stimulus on one of the nations largest industry’s……Real Estate. Right now home values are still way too high and RE is basically inelastic to Fed easing at this point in time. So exactly what is the vehicle (asset class) that is going to drive us out of the malaise?? There isn’t one that is not inflationary. IMHO the bullish case on the second half rebound is Bullsh#t.
