Thanks to all who participated in this thread. I think it was a good one and best of all it was amiable all the way through. Patientrenter, Alex, Rus, good stuff all the way around. Patientrenter as my real job is a digital design manager I thought your tracking mechanism was excellent. I sucked in stats so I could feel the fog rolling in on my brain as I read your reasoning… What I really wanted to point out, without being able to explain it mathematically was that you could make approximations for the upper and lower bounds of the where the long bond may be in the future, say at least a month from now and then make worst case and best case approximations of where your loan “could” be at if you did have to float it…
I think one thing we all agree on is… “don’t float your loan rate!!!”
Which is like impossible to do if you are buying a phase release from a builder that will not be completed for a few months….