TG: The Pats are vulnerable to the run. The Jags bring a very strong run game, and a hard-hitting defense. I like Jack Del Rio, and I like his mentality (former middle linebacker), which has translated to the team at large.
I still think you are over-rating the Patriots. Indy is better than they are given credit for, and the Chargers might surprise you (yes, this is a Raiders fan saying this). One thing to consider about Norv Turner: In both DC and Oakland, he was not given a team as talented as this one. As much as I enjoyed gaffing he and Cottrell earlier in the year, it seems like both the offense and the defense are picking up the schemes and playing well.