[quote=temeculaguy]
Redfin now allows you to pick “exclude short sales.” So I did, 199 listings in 92592 and 80 in 92591 that aren’t shorts and aren’t already under contract. This is for houses and condos, in all price categories combined. 279 total lstings, normal listings and bank owned combined, that’s it, for a city of 100k. That is about a 6 week supply of houses that you can actually make an offer on and move into in a month or two, and of those I’ll be willing to bet some have offers already in play, realtors don’t rush to change the status because they can get leads that way. Right now, Morgan hill has 5 listings that aren’t shorts. Redhawk has 17, Vail Ranch 8, Wolf creek 7. 92592 is averaging 40 closings a week! We need the shadow inventory to surface just to meet demand, and I see less dead lawns than I did last year, I think the loan mods might be taking hold or we already peaked and such a huge percentage of the bubble bought homes have already changed hands. The three car garage monitor now stands at 71 (homes in 92592 with 3 car garages under 400k), the lowest in a while, it was in the triple digit range in 2008 and very few were shorts then, now that about all that is left.
So I’m calling Temecula’s bottom right now! I’ve never called it before but I’m calling it now. Some of my relatives and friends managed to pick up some cash flow positive rentals and the ones that were outbid have been complaining that they missed the boat, that there are more buyers and less listings every day. I’m not claiming a rebound will happen tomorrow but I’ve watched my micromarket more than anyone I have ever met even though I am not in the industry and I say that when the supposed shadow inventory does hit this summer as many believe it will, that will be your last chance. If the government prevents it from hitting, then you missed it, that’s my final answer.[/quote]
I saw a post on redfin which states:
There are about 14,500 single family homes in Temecula (excludes condos, apartments, attached townhomes).
2.8 % of this inventory, 403 single family homes are listed on Redfin.
62% of these, or 249 short sales.
The other 154 are not short sales.
This does not include any “pending” or “under contract” that get filtered out.
I didn’t double check the data but 154 a lot less than 279 count TG posted 3 weeks ago. I predict that Temecula will have major sale decline pretty soon because there isn’t much left for sale.
