[quote=temeculaguy]I’m afraid it’s not coming and here’s my reasoning. I golf with a group of guys who for the most part do not follow anything economic other than sound bytes from the MSM. I don’t divulge my hidden passion for geekonomics or my role on this site going back to the bubble. This golf crowd is my barometer for what the barely informed crowd thinks. In 2007 this crowd might have told me that buying with a neg am loan was a good idea, yet they wouldn’t use the phrase “neg-am” because they don’t care about it that much, it would have been a lender phrase like “pick a payment.” Same crowd might have suggested buying gold at 2k an ounce. We all have friends like this, they are my friends, not my economic advisers. They do however know their sports and their beer and have an appreciation for the female form, so they are still great company.
Well, last week, while golfing, one of them says a big wave of foreclosures is coming and the others agree. I remained silent. Reading this thread, it occurs to me that the wave isn’t coming, in fact the opposite will probably happen and I need no further evidence other than once anything economic gets to, let’s say the news segment on an fm radio morning drive show, then it’s already past it’s value. When the masses think something, it’s too late or it’s wrong. It’s not their fault. I read for three hours tonight, but I would not be able to tell you who is still in the hunt on american idol or survivor, I may see letterman or a news clip showing the winner or the finalists for 1 minute, but that’s the extent of my knowledge, whatever I noticed on accident. Same goes for inventory and my golf buddies.[/quote]
The tsunami already came and past, except it didn’t happen everywhere. It came in Vegas, Pheonix, and Florida.
My high school buddy bought an investment home in Queen Creek for 270k because MSM and realtor friend told him about all these baby boom snow birds. The house dropped down to the 50k range and stayed there with the tsunami that hit Pheonix. Ask any one in AZ, LV, and FL about the tsunami, and they will give you some horrific first hand accounts.
Just like real tsunamis, all the pieces have to be there for the tsunami to reach its max impact and cause the devastation. did SD have all of those elements? Absolutely not. But we get the same MSM. So while MSM chase the aweful stories coming out of tsunami central, the rest of us keep thinking we’re up next. Nope, while Phoenix got completely submerged and now homes are essentially the same price as cars, Temecula got some 6 foot waves and knocked the price down to 50%. Meanwhile, SD proper got some swells that managed to bring down prices about 1/3.
Like TG said, the story already happened, now the question is how this thing ends.
