[quote=temeculaguy]Good to hear Doc! You are always welcome round here.
4plex, I looked at the charts and while I respect case shiller, those are national charts that don’t jive with my experiences as a home shopper from 1990-1991 in San Diego. It started to soften in 1992. I spent the 1980’s renting in San Diego and was seriously looking in 1990 and 1991, not only did I not see nominal or real price drops, there were steady increases with each phase for new construction. I remember those years specifically and also remember that camping out overnight for a phase release was almost normal at new construction, as was flipping pre construction.[/quote]
As we’ve seen during this cycle, different areas move over different periods of time, in general.
Up in LA, the peak was in 1989/1990 and the trough was in 1996/1997. We didn’t see peak (1989/1990) prices until 2000/2001. IOW, there was a 10-12 year period between peaks.
One thing to consider, too, is how much bigger this bubble got. While the bubbles of the 70s and 80s were more due to inflation and peak buying years for the Boomers, the period from 2001 forward was driven almost entirely by easy credit, IMHO. I think the natural peak of the RE cycle occurred in 2001, and if you look at the sales and price figures, you’ll see that things were slowing down at that point — also note the dot-com/recession during that time. Prices should have dropped a bit from there, but Greenspan shoved money into the housing market in order to delay the effects of the recession, IMHO.
So, here we are…eight years later, and trillions of dollars deeper in debt. Our jobs are disappearing, benefits and wages are being cut, and the debt still exists because the PTB won’t let the foreclosures heal the market. Not sure how anyone thinks this is a bullish sign.
BTW, TG, I am NOT disagreeing with anything you’ve said, and this is not directed at you. Temecula and the lower-end areas have already been hit enough that there is much less risk than than in the coastal areas. I’m referring more to the economy in general.
