[quote=svelte]Two things may fall in favor of a recession:
(a) being post-midterm elections
(b) rest of the world is slowing
But who knows. My track record for predicting the economy hasn’t been stellar.[/quote]
I’m with you on (b), but divided governments (i.e. Republican controlled congress and Democratic controlled Presidency, or vice-versa) are typically good for the US economy. In part because neither party is able to push its agenda it often creates a stable business environment where companies can grow and invest without worrying too much about government action changing the playing field.
I don’t think 2015 will see a recession, simply because GDP tends to be a lagging economic indicator, along with unemployment. I think 2015 may be a pretty crummy year on Wall Street, but a pretty decent year on Main Street. I do think the end of 2015 will look a lot worse than Q1 2015.
