Selling during a frenzy of bidding wars is a heck of a lot easier than during a period of increasing illiquidity. If you were speaking of stocks, I would agree that it would be easier to get out just past the peak. Since housing is truly illiquid, in the sense that an individual purchaser must buy it from you, rather than a market-maker providing near instant liquidity, missing the peak can mean an agonizing, instant loss of 20-30% “value”.
What if nobody remains who likes your floorplan/view/location/neighborhood/paint/flooring/compass orientation? Then you are screwed. I firmly believe, although I have no data to support, that many people in this country went to bed one night, then woke up with their house being worth 30% less than the day before due to the lack of a current/future buyer. I categorically disagree that real estate has to be “sticky on the way down” as this is NAR-speak, plain and simply crap.
Finally, I disagree that we are TRULY “slightly appreciating in Southern CA”. Most of us smart enough to be participating on these boards recognize that medians are a useless indicator in the current market conditions, post peak…sentiment and anecdotal experience are much more telling of the reality. Prices are down significantly in many parts of the U.S. and they are down a good bit in some parts of Southern CA….most owners don’t realize it yet.
