Thanks those are thoughtful insights and for clarifying about yourself.
I’ve been on this blog off and on since at least 2013. I used to read housing inventory which I think OCrenter used to do.
Kind of amazing to see everything that has happened and I credit Rich for giving all of us a resource that can help build substantial wealth at a relatively young 51 in a relatively short period of a decade. So am thankful for all useful input even though there were many trolls and doubters throughout the years.
The seller from 92127 is being pragmatic and looking in south Escondido and other areas outside 92127 with her realtor. So refreshing as some tenants are very specific about the areas they want to live in. She has a budget of 1.1M and wants a 10K ft lot for a pool and there are a few that fit that criteria that I think she will go for at least one in coming days. So hopefully the lapse situation doesn’t occur.
Target ROE is 13% for 92127 with 2% long term appreication (since 2005 factored). Might do better if hits recent 4-5% trend.
It’s good to see a reasonable seller realizing when it is time to make a life/lifestyle move. I’ve always been fascinated with 92127 and feel fortunate to have one there already but the spring bidding war for a 3BR left me with an odd feeling. The final buyer was effectively prepaying for what I thought was 2+ years of appreciation.
Two of my rentals are in 92027 (both 4BR SFH) rent from $3500 to $4000.
After the leins clear on new one, expect it to be on the market for 1-2 weeks or less at $3500. Gives at 7.5% ROE on 25% down preappreciation. With 2% apprecitaion, ROE at 15%.
Often suprised by how solid tenants are. Retired physician from Kaiser, 20+ plus UCSD nurse with union protection, NATO military contractors on 3-5 year contracts, young tech couples earning 6 figures each. Younger will eventually graduate to ownership I’m sure but in general less turnover than expected when started out.
I am often suprised by the relatively unknown pockets of higher end homes with views in Escondido. Yes it’s a different feel from 92127 (not a master planned community like 4S) but sometimes more space and a view are the way to go.
We have looked in Harmony Grove and the potential tenant didn’t want to be that far out and ended up getting his budget increased by almost $1000 (25% increase) since his first recon trip in Dec so he was able to get closer to his Poway office. Yes Covid delayed things that much and the rental market changed that much in 8 months for some corporate clients.
Well noted about 92078, ours in in Silvercrest so a little further inland but still positively suprised by the pacing of the comps there. Tenant has strong attachement to the house due to family history and is a touch below market at rent but works reasonably well.
Looking forward to continuing this discussion: found this link today from redfin.
